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Alternate settings for strong armed C..

Alternate settings for strong armed C..

Instead of just shutting down run vs strong armed C, but it would be nice if you could have alternate settings instead of just nothing. Like only run your 9 plus speed guys.

Re: Alternate settings for strong armed

Or take the shutdown run against strong arm catcher off of the strategy page for the whole team, and make it a yes/no question on the lineup settings SB/Defensive Subs for each player.

Re: Re: Alternate settings for strong a

Or maybe throttle back the effects of a strong Armed Catcher?? The average in Major League baseball is that the catcher throws out about 30% of would be base stealers

Pudge Rodriguez is generally considered the strongest armed and most effective at throwing out Base stealers of the last 50+ years His thrown out % was only 46% -

I ROUTINELY see strong armed catchers throwing out 60+ % of base stealers on PC -

Most savvy owners will not even attempt to steal with anything less than a 7 speed and toggle off stealing against a strong armed catcher, the success rate is too low, plus there is no opportunity for an error to be made on the attempt so its just not worth it-

it's not close to accurate and a big factor on why the HR is so dominant a factor, you can't manufacture runs in PC

Re: Alternate settings for strong a

Well, you CAN manufacture runs in PC, actually. Not in every single way that you can in real life, but you can't say that you can't manufacture runs at all. In one league I'm in, Omar Moreno (10 speed) just bunted for a base hit, stole second, and then scored on a single. I don't disagree about the catcher position debate - could be tweaked - but it's not that big a deal to me personally. But speed, bunting, stealing, taking advantage of opponents' bad defense, playing guys with high OBP who walk a lot, all of that can manufacture a lot of runs in this game.

Re: Re: Alternate settings for strong a

Speed is big on PC, you can definitely manufacture runs. If you see catcher's with 60% it's because people are stealing with players they shouldn't. It's more like 30-40% against 8 plus speeds. And non plus catchers are usually in the 20s.

Back to manufacturing runs, PC generally has low AVG and still manages normal amount of runs because of high power, so I do agree HRs are huge (especially with slump buster). But speed is big too.

Re: Alternate settings for strong a

Interesting. I always wanted plus-arm Cs to be more effective cutting down runners. I've had plus-arm Cs throw out less than 15% over most of a season, so the variance from catcher to catcher and season to season can be significant, as it should be.

The only way any C will ever throw out more than 50% is if the opponents are stealing mostly 7-speed or 8-speed guys. In that case, the throw-out rate should be high. So, what yankee said.

SCM has been stumping for an error on the Catcher's throw to 2B or 3B since the Nixon administration. Interesting, but the lack of a hard statistic for those occurrences is the fly in the ointment.

Re: Re: Alternate settings for strong a

Part of the problem is that people simply do not run on Plus Arm catchers unless they are like a 9 or 10 speed - those guys have such a high success rate that even a plus arm won't have a very high Thrown out percentage -

You are also correct that a lot of catchers with high Thrown out percentages are aided by dubious base stealing strategy -

As far as Gus's assertion that bunting is successful, he is correct as well it's a definite asset and probably overly so - the real issue is why guys who had 15-18 SB in real life are a 5 speed and simply can't steal even 1 base in PC - that entire portion of their assets is nerfed

Do I want a 25-30 HR guy like Eric Davis or Tim Raines bunting for a hit? No but if they are a 9 speed then I am taking the bat out of their hands at times that I don't like and its all or nothing, they either never surprise bunt or they do it whenever the Sim dictates which is kinda bad too

If it's the 8th inning and I am down a run with a man on base, I don't want Eric Davis bunting for a hit that CANNOT drive in a run, the SIM will not bunt with a man on third EVER -I'd rather them swing away, but there could be a man on 2nd and he bunts who wants that?

And yes SOL, I do believe the element of a bad or dropped throw on a steal attempt should be factored in -just like I lobbied for a tweak on tagging up in Big boost Parks Errors on steal attempts as far more common in real life - it's also part of what makes Base stealing so powerful in real life - It causes the pitcher to throw from the stretch and not be as dominant - it has a huge effect on a game

Re: Alternate settings for strong a

I agree all of this could use some tweaking - in the recent survey, one of the common themes was the issue with speed and guys who maybe stole 20 bases really having too low a speed rating. So we don't disagree, and I can think of ways to help this issue, it's just going to take some time to make changes. For one thing, the speed rating is something that probably needs to be relative to the era - we don't do a lot of "relative to the era" stuff here because I think it really muddles the analysis of the stats, but I don't think it would screw people up if the speed rating became something based off how fast that guy was compared to his peers that season.

I also think more granular control of who runs on strong arms is a fair point.

I totally understand the complaints along the lines of "I don't want this guy EVER bunting or stealing in X situation" but I'm just going to be honest in saying it's probably a long ways out before extremely intricate control of those sorts of things is a high priority - at the end of the day, this is a sim game where we all have to cope with a CPU manager to some extent.

Re: Re: Alternate settings for strong a

I've always wondered what factors go into a catcher's CCS results. Is it just the plus-arms that are taken into consideration or do other factors (such as dWar) figure into the equation?

Re: Alternate settings for strong a

DWar and in fact Defense in general have no input at all into whether a base runner is safe or out on a steal attempt - You are either Out, steal the Base or get picked off.

Stealing Bases in PC is kinda like throwing the Football, there are 3 possible outcomes, and 2 are negative...

Re: Re: Alternate settings for strong a
Bad News Bears League- Top Speed rating allowed is 7

Most owners will not run on a Strong armed Catcher

Most owners only steal with 7 speeds

Combined 74 Stolen Bases 75 Caught Stealing

Caught stealing rates by league catchers by team

50% 54% 45% 58% 55% 100% 50% 50% 54% 33% 100% 50% 33% 43% 44% 0% -plus 1 team has no steals attempted

1 team has 1 steal attempted - Thrown out, and another has 1 steal attempt - Successful Those are the 2 100%

Just an example of how difficult it is to steal a base with a 7 speed against a NON Strong Armed catcher - it's way too hard

Re: Alternate settings for strong a

In that league, I checked 7 speeds and they have a 54% success rate (but we don't know how that breaks down between strong arm and non-strong arm - if the total is 54% we can safely assume it's quite a bit higher against non-strong arm unless there are no strong-arm catchers starting for any teams).

Here's the issue with the system, and the reason it's hard with a 7 speed... if you glance at players who are a 7 speed, they come in a few shapes and sizes. Some guys (Mays '54 or Gehrig '27) have the rating because of triples. So - would people be happy if they could not steal at all with those players? Because those guys stole single-digit bases. Having them steal at a higher success rate makes no sense.

Take Ichiro 2004 or Finley 1996 (36 and 22 stolen bases respectively) - do these players deserve to steal at a high rate and rack up a crap ton of SBs? I would say no. If you're running a lot with them, 50% success seems fair because they did not steal a lot. This is the case for most 7 speed guys.

Ichiro's success rate was 78%. I think it's safe to say NOBODY wants 2004 Ichiro to be able to steal 100+ bases on PC because he had a 78% success rate on 45 attempts.

So the real question is, what do people want PC to become? Do you want the flexibility to run with Ichiro, or do you want the stats to say "Sorry, while you are going to get a 78% success rate, you can only steal 45 times the entire season and then you're done."

So honestly, if I were building PC now, I would probably build it as the latter. I would drive the steal chances and the success rate off the stats. But now that we've had flexibility for 12+ years, I don't know how people would like that.

Re: Re: Alternate settings for strong a

I would agree EXCEPT a Matt Olson can bash unlimited HR's - what's the difference?

And a Matt Olson can get both a Boosted Park and possibly Slump Buster BESIDES his ridiculous Fire Rating

Why does one ability get to be unchecked while another gets neutered?

Take Dustin Pedroia 2008 - his best offensive Season - stole 20 bags and got caught ONCE - yet he would be hard pressed to steal ANY in PC - without getting thrown out around 70% of the time.

Re: Alternate settings for strong a

The difference is Matt Olson had a sample size of ABs that we generally agree is enough to play full time. We don't allow a player with 5 homers in 20 ABs to do that.

Olson is an edge case anyway. You'd have a LOT of Olson's running the bases in the other scenario.

Re: Re: Alternate settings for strong a

I wonder if you could have a speed rating based off triples and SB that is used for baserunning when the ball is in play and a separate steal rating based just on SBA and SB%. Maybe instead of setting a percentage of the time to steal by speed, a setting for each player that can be 1) never steal, 2) steal less often, 3) steal at normal rate, 4) steal more often. Stealing st normal rate would have each player go about as often as they did IRL with roughly the same % success (with variation due to catcher arm and luck). Going more often would lower the success rate by a set amount- say 5-10%, going less often would increase it by the same amount

Essentially, you could choose to have Ichiro steal 26 bases in 30 attempts, 35 in 45, or 45 in 68 (assuming normal catchers)

Re: Alternate settings for strong armed

I think if starting from scratch, you consider 3 main factors, SB success rate of the runner, catcher and pitcher.

Then theres a depreciating factor based on attempts.

If runner didnt run much (per pa), his success rate is lessened.
If catcher was not attempted on much (per gp @c), his success rate is heightened.
If pitcher wasn't run on much (per ip), his success rate is heightened.

Then it's about the trio of Ichiro and Yadier and Jon Lester. At least as a starting point. And errors don't happen :)

Re: Re: Alternate settings for strong a

Last two posts are both good - in my mind, I was headed where you were josh, the speed rating could remain since it's useful, but steals would be something different.

I like BH's ideas also, but it's going to be a much longer effort to get pitchers SB rates (if they are even easily available anywhere...)

Re: Alternate settings for strong a

But why decrease percentages when someone is over achieving? Again we don’t do it with hitting or pitching in fact we double down on it in many instances- take an Oakland pitcher which is a very pitcher friendly park IRL and big disadvantage his stadium-

We take a pitchers H/9 which already has DWar factored in and add Dwar

On Fire - Slump bust - Boosted Parks all designed help over achieve.

But running is a taboo?? Why ?? Pitchers are already not affected by base runners in PC what’s the problem??

Re: Re: Alternate settings for strong a

SCM- because we are allowing the manager to force a runner to run more often than he did IRL. We don’t allow a manager to tell Matt Olson to swing for the fences more. What we allow is a manager to put Matt Olson in a situation (park, lineup slot) that increases his power. Or we can put a pitcher in a situation that helps him- good D and a big park

Right now you CAN do something similar for a fast guy- bat him leadoff. He will have more PA and reach base more often, giving him more chance to steal.

If you want speed on equal footing, then I guess Guy could allow us to choose between Astroturf and grass! Put speedsters on turf and improve their success!

Re: Alternate settings for strong a

Someone who had a sample size of 30 stolen base attempts and a sample size of over 150 ABs is very different... if Olson hit five homers in 30 ABs, we would not allow it. You're asking for 7 speeds to be able to be more successful without impact to steal attempts - you'll nerf the game FAR more than Matt Olson does.

(Even worse, as I mentioned above, some 7 speeds are guys who stole 8 bases in 13 attempts! Why would we actually allow them to steal at a higher success rate at will? That's like taking a hitter with 4 homers in 10 ABs and saying hit 600 times.)

And, Olson is a one-off who is not even allowed in ATG leagues... there are 7 speeds all over every league.

The other difference between Olson and a 7 speed - Olson actually hit homeruns in those chances. Ichiro chose not to attempt to steal in the vast majority of times he had the opportunity. What's missing here is that Olson's stats are based on total chances to perform. We don't have that factor in the sim for baserunners currently.

We know for a fact that Ichiro only tried 45 steals in a FULL season. That's why he is only a 7 and not a 9. We don't know how many homers Olson would have hit in a full season. It's an unknown stat.

Re: Re: Alternate settings for strong a

I don't want a 7 speed to steal at an incredible rate, I simply want a player who stole 20 bases in 28 attempts like 2008 Pedroia to have a chance to come close to that total or ratio.

after all he did achieve those stats

Re: Re: Alternate settings for strong a

IMHO, as a manager, I want my 7+ speed guys to have a green light to run as often as they want. But, like in real life, I expect my runners to not get a good jump most of the time and not go. When they do go, I expect a high success rate or at least one approximating their real-life success rate.

So, yes, I want Ichiro to have a 70%+ success rate, but 45 attempts in 162 games means he's likely to get a good jump less than 45/162 = 27% of the time, even if I always give him the green light. In reality, the denominator above should probably be 'walks + hits + reached on error + hit by pitch' instead of a simple assumption of 1 opportunity per game.

Adding the ability of the pitcher to hold the runner close (not getting a good jump) and the catcher to throw behind the runner would be gravy.

Re: Re: Alternate settings for strong a

Any change that adds more stolen bases to the game is a mistake.

Pitchers and catchers don't get surprised by big hitters. HR hitters aren't sneaking up on anyone. Not so with base stealers.

These low speed guys are only successful IRL because they have an element of surprise behind the steal. A 7-speed IRL who tries to steal 60x is going to get hammered at second base, by any major league catcher. Pedroia may have stole 20 out of 28, but that is about the limit of his ability to surprise pitchers and catchers. If he tries to steal a base IRL more than once every five or six games, he'd be cut down. Wanting him to steal 75% because that's what he did IRL is giving me coding nightmares, and I don't code.

PC needs less speed, not more.

Re: Alternate settings for strong a

I am not advocating for a guy who stole 20 bases in 28 attempts to have unfettered ability to steal at that rate I really just want him to be able to achieve at least SOME stolen bases - as a 6 Speed Pedroia is getting like zero

We already have no control over when a base runner is actually going to try to steal- we can set 100% but they don't always get a jump or whatever, so it's something that it would seem easy enough to bake in - Just like say Wild Pitches thrown - in this case Pedroia would steal a base once every 8.1 games and get caught stealing every 20.1 games (add in a randomizer of say +10 to +20 % for Good and Great season) and also -10 to -20% for Off or BAD season)

This isn't rocket science - the data is available in a players annual stats - removes setting to steal or not to steal - and against strong armed Catchers or not plus it gives you more of the full value of a player -

I realize it would take some effort but in order to get batters more chances to drive in runs and avoid Double plays it is an option that makes sense in my opinion

Re: Re: Alternate settings for strong a

I'm obviously not successfully explaining the trade off.

And I said in a prior post I would probably build the game that way if I were starting from scratch.

But once you move the game in that direction, you lose the ability to take say a 7-speed guy who didn't steal many bases and actually use him to steal bases. You might gain the random 20 SBs from Pedroia, but you lose the extra 20 or 30 or 40 from every 7, 8 or 9 because once it's based off the stats, there will probably be fewer stolen bases overall than we have today in PC. But they also would not be concentrated within a few players.

That was simply my point.

Re: Alternate settings for strong a

WTH - who says "this isn't rocket science" to the creator of a game that has provided you countless hours of enjoyment for FREE?! You can suggest and make a case for changes you would like implemented, but in a cordial manner befitting the person whom you are addressing. You know what isn't rocket science? Respect...

Re: Alternate settings for strong a

The game is great, and we will eagerly embrace whatever you choose. My opinion is to make the game as close to reality as possible. The only time a manager gets to send a base-runner unconditionally is a hit-and-run play. So, the current manager option for steals seems like the real-life version of hit-and-run, except you don't get to tell the batter that he has to swing.

I am a new player, so it's easy for me to say this: I won't have any adjustment period. I get that someone who built their team around the current method would dislike my suggestion.

Could we do a PC-wide vote/survey to see if there is an overwhelming desire either way?

Re: Re: Alternate settings for strong a

I meant no disrespect to Guy, and I have paid over the years more than once and also brought traffic to the site by recruiting new players, if I offended Guy than I apologize, that was not my intent.

its not rocket science was because there are no computations involved, its no different than 20 HR's in 500 AB - every 100 AB you should have the chance to hit 4 HR, you may not because one of those chances happen to occur in a big disadvantage park, but that changes NOTHING, if 1 gets taken away and turned into say a 2B than you should still maintain the same percentage, and your 2B percentage should be affected. For every action there's an equal action.

If I offended Guy I apologize, that was not my intent, but I previously opined that making a park a big disadvantage should increase tagging up ability and Guy made an adjustment so its not like I am trying to add unrealistic changes to the sim-

I still think that with 2 outs and a runner on 1st runners should have the ability to possibly to advance more than 2 bases on a two base error depending on their speed, especially in the outfield

Re: Alternate settings for strong a

I never took it as offensive. Was just explaining that it would probably be something not everyone would love right off the bat.

Speed came up a lot in the recent survey. So I do think a fair number of people would like to see the speed number be more accurate. But with that I think speed would have to apply to base running while stolen bases would be handled differently.

Re: Re: Alternate settings for strong a

I totally agree Guy, there is a huge difference between base running and stealing bases, some guys are fantastic base runners but simply not good at stealing bases, they are different skills

Re: Alternate settings for strong a

Prime example Babe Ruth ,he had decent speed and stole over 100 bases in his carreer but being a good baserunner is also knowing when not to steal. Babe was thrown out by a good 10 feet to make the last out of the 1926 world series.