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Lead Story - 12/19/2025

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With sixteen games left, the season has narrowed the way a long story narrows near its end: fewer characters on the page, sharper light on every flaw, and no patience left for alibis. The league has sorted itself into three clusters—a leader, a pursuer, and then that scrum at 73–65 where four teams share the same record but not the same fate.

The race for the flag

Cleveland (88–50) has been the best club most nights, and the numbers—+217 in run differential—say it without poetry. They don’t just win; they separate. Albert Belle and Brian Giles have turned the middle of the order into an industrial accident, and when a lineup is doing that to people, a pitcher like Luis Tiant doesn’t need perfection—only competence and timing. Tiant’s season line (17–7, 3.47, 209 K) is not a love letter to run prevention, but it has been a love letter to innings and nerve.

Yet Cleveland isn’t alone in the daylight. The Astros (83–55) sit five games back, and they have the look of a club that can play .700 ball for a month without seeming to hurry. Their differential (+159) is the second-best signature in the league, and their stars—Bagwell with 41 homers and 130 RBI, Alvarez with 32 and 107, Verlander with a 2.98 ERA and 198 strikeouts—make them dangerous in the specific way that modern teams are dangerous: they don’t rely on luck clusters. They manufacture pressure and wait for you to break.

So the Indians lead by five, but the real truth is this: Cleveland’s margin for error is comfortable, not luxurious. A bad week can still turn the last ten days into a chase scene. The Astros don’t need help; they just need Cleveland to play merely “good” instead of great.
Home-field math (top two get it): Cleveland is in good shape for one of those two spots almost by force of arithmetic. Houston is essentially in a separate competition—to either catch Cleveland or, more realistically, hold off the pack far behind and lock down the second seed with authority.

The Nationals: safe, but not serene

Washington at 77–61 feels like the third-best team by record, but also like the most volatile of the contenders. They’ve scored plenty (678) and prevented enough (571) to wear a +107 differential like a badge, and they have the most spectacular single-player line in the league: Juan Soto has 56 home runs and is hitting .325 like it’s normal. He’s not merely carrying the offense—he’s dragging it forward like a man hauling rope from a burning ship.

But Washington is not yet in the clear in the way good teams want to be in the clear. With sixteen left, they can finish anywhere from 93 wins to 77. The teams behind them can max out at 89. That means the Nationals are probably playoff-bound—yet “probably” is the word that ruins seasons. A 6–10 finish gives the 73–65 mob a door to kick down. A 9–7 finish likely seals it. In other words: Washington doesn’t need a hot streak; it needs to avoid a cold one.

Scherzer’s line (14–11, 3.30, 185 K) tells you what you already know about the Nationals: the front of the rotation is real, and the rest of the club can be brilliant or clumsy depending on the hour.

The knife fight at 73–65: one chair, four men

And then there is that hard little truth at the center of September: four teams are tied at 73–65, and only one of them is guaranteed a playoff seat. The others will go home.

Yankees (73–65) — Ruth (48 HR, 136 RBI) and Gehrig (31 HR, 125 RBI) have done their part in the grand old way: louder than everyone else. But this is not the 1927 club; it bleeds runs, and it asks its pitching to survive storms too often. Still, you don’t want to see Ruth and Gehrig in a short series, and you really don’t want to see them in a must-win final weekend.

Dodgers (73–65) — The Dodgers look like the “most normal” good team in the tangle: positive differential, strong ace work from Jason Schmidt (13–10, 3.31, 196 K), and a lineup anchored by Manny Ramirez and Matt Kemp. They can win any series, and they can also lose any series, which is what makes them a pennant-race team in the truest sense.

Giants (73–65) — Barry Bonds has put up a Bonds season even in a league designed to embarrass legends: 46 homers, .304 average, and the particular late-inning dread that follows him around like weather. The Giants’ path is simple: keep games close, let Bonds decide two of them a week, and don’t drown in the innings where he doesn’t bat.

Cardinals (73–65) — St. Louis is the oddest team in the tie because the run differential says “no” (–45) while the record says “maybe.” That’s often the footprint of timing: winning tight ones, losing ugly ones. McGwire’s 53 homers are a cathedral built of muscle, and Gibson’s year (12–11, 3.02) is respectable, but the Cardinals feel like a club living slightly beyond its underlying math.

Sometimes that’s a mirage; sometimes it’s a skill. The next sixteen games will decide which.

The brutal arithmetic: With sixteen left, these teams can finish anywhere from 89 wins to 73. Washington sits four games ahead of them. That’s not a gulf—it's a hallway. One hot streak and one stumble and the entire playoff picture changes shape.

Who has momentum, who has leverage

Power rankings put the story in harsher terms than the standings do:
Cleveland and Houston aren’t just leading—they’re better by the metrics that usually win over time.

Washington has the star power to survive a slump, but also the vulnerability to have one matter.

The 73–65 tie is not a tie of equals; it’s a tie of different flaws. The question isn’t “who is best,” it’s “whose weakness will be least exposed in the last sixteen?”

The final sixteen: what to watch

If you’re watching this the way old pennant races were watched—by listening for the shift in tone rather than staring at the math—the tells are these:
Can Cleveland avoid the complacent week? A 9–7 finish likely wins the league; a 7–9 finish invites Houston to breathe on their neck.

Can Houston put together the ten-day sprint? They don’t need 12–4, but if they play like the best team in the league for two weeks, Cleveland will feel it.

Can Washington simply behave? Not heroic. Not brilliant. Just steady.

Which 73–65 team wins the close games? That’s where it will be decided: the two-run ninth, the bases-loaded fifth, the seventh-inning double play that either happens or doesn’t.

Sixteen games is just long enough for truth to reassert itself—and just short enough for madness to steal a seat. In a league where Ruth and Bonds can share the same night air, you don’t bet against madness.

11/13/2025

Season 18 draft order

Decade draft/Franchise Draft
1/12 ExpatBama 2022 Astros + Jeff Bagwell
2/11 Midget 2009 Dodgers + Duke Snider
3/10 REVEJB 2019 Nationals + Bryce Harper
4/9 Joshbonds25 1996 Indians + Luis Tiant
5/8 Davrogbro62 1970 Cubs + Sammy Sosa
6/7 Jimgriddy 1983 Orioles + Dave McNally
7/6 dalbpho8 1968 Cardinals + Mark McGwire
8/5 Lordhawke 1955 Tigers + Justin Verlander
9/4 Kingdude 1924 Yankees + Russ Ford
10/3 bodell82 1918 Giants + Barry Bonds
11/2 CoachPappy17 1931 Athletics + Vida Blue
12/1 Ndekar 1946 Red Sox + Pedro Martinez

7/8/2023

Team Year combos used

* = Division Winner

1900s
1900 Boston Beaneaters/Braves* (season 2)
1901 Pittsburgh Pirates
1902 Pittsburgh Pirates
1902 St. Louis Browns
1903 Boston Americans (Red Sox)
1904 New York Giants
1904 Philadelphia Phillies
1906 Chicago Cubs
1907 Chicago Cubs* (season 3)
1908 Chicago Cubs
1908 Philadelphia Athletics
1909 Philadelphia Athletics
1909 Chicago Cubs
1909 Pittsburgh Pirates
1909 Cleveland Naps
1909 Boston Red Sox


1910s
1910 Chicago Cubs* (season 5)
1910 Boston Red Sox
1910 Pittsburgh Pirates
1911 Chicago Cubs* (season 4)
1911 Philadelphia Athletics
1912 Philadelphia Athletics
1912 Chicago Cubs
1913 New York Giants
1914 Boston Red Sox
1915 Boston Red Sox
1915 Chicago White Sox
1916 Boston Red Sox
1916 Chicago White Sox
1917 Chicago White Sox
1919 New York Giants* (season 6)
1919 Cleveland Indians
1919 Detroit Tigers

1920s
1920 Cleveland Indians
1920 New York Giants* (season 1)
1923 New York Giants
1923 Pittsburgh Pirates
1925 New York Yankees* (season 8)
1926 New York Yankees
1927 New York Yankees
1927 Philadelphia Athletics
1927 New York Giants
1927 Washington Senators
1928 New York Yankees
1928 Philadelphia Athletics
1928 St. Louis Cardinals
1928 New York Giants
1929 Philadelphia A’s
1929 New York Yankees

1930s
1930 Philadelphia A's
1930 Chicago Cubs
1930 New York Yankees
1931 Chicago Cubs
1931 New York Giants
1932 New York Giants
1932 New York Yankees
1933 St. Louis Cardinals* (season 3)
1934 St. Louis Cardinals
1934 New York Yankees
1936 Detroit Tigers* (season 8)
1936 New York Yankees
1937 New York Yankees
1938 New York Yankees
1939 New York Yankees* (season 1)
1939 St. Louis Cardinals

1940s
1941 St Louis Cardinals* (season 6)
1941 Boston Red Sox
1941 Brooklyn Dodgers
1942 St Louis Cardinals* (season 4)
1942 New York Yankees
1943 St Louis Cardinals
1944 St. Louis Cardinals
1947 New York Yankees* (season 2)
1947 St. Louis Cardinals
1947 Brooklyn Dodgers
1947 Cleveland Indians
1948 Brooklyn Dodgers
1948 Boston Red Sox
1948 Cleveland Indians
1949 Brooklyn Dodgers
1949 New York Yankees* (season 5)
1949 Cleveland Indians

1950s
1950 Cleveland Indians
1950 St Louis Cardinals
1951 New York Yankees
1953 Chicago Cubs
1955 Cleveland Indians
1955 Brooklyn Dodgers
1956 Cleveland Indians
1956 Brooklyn Dodgers
1957 Brooklyn Dodgers
1957 Milwaukee Braves
1958 Milwaukee Braves
1958 Los Angeles Dodgers
1959 San Francisco Giants
1959 Milwaukee Braves
1959 Los Angeles Dodgers
1959 Pittsburgh Pirates
1959 Chicago White Sox

1960s
1961 Los Angeles Dodgers* (season 6)
1962 Cincinnati Reds
1962 St. Louis Cardinals
1963 Detroit Tigers
1963 St. Louis Cardinals
1964 San Francisco Giants
1965 San Francisco Giants* (season 5)
1966 Baltimore Orioles
1967 Baltimore Orioles
1967 Chicago White Sox
1967 Detroit Tigers
1968 Detroit Tigers
1968 Baltimore Orioles
1969 Baltimore Orioles
1969 San Francisco Giants
1969 Chicago Cubs

1970s
1970 Baltimore Orioles* (season 1) **Champions
1970 Minnesota Twins
1971 Baltimore Orioles
1971 San Francisco Giants
1972 San Francisco Giants
1972 Oakland Athletics
1972 Baltimore Orioles
1972 Cincinnati Reds
1973 Detroit Tigers
1974 Boston Red Sox* (season 4)
1974 Cleveland Indians
1975 Cleveland Indians
1976 Philadelphia Phillies
1977 Cincinnati Reds
1977 Boston Red Sox
1978 Philadelphia Phillies
1979 New York Yankees* (season 3)

1980s
1982 California Angels* (season 2)
1983 California Angels
1984 Montreal Expos
1985 New York Mets
1985 California Angels
1985 St. Louis Cardinals
1986 Houston Astros
1986 New York Mets
1987 New York Mets
1987 Oakland Athletics
1988 Cincinnati Reds
1988 New York Mets
1988 Montreal Expos
1989 Oakland Athletics
1989 Seattle Mariners
1989 Montreal Expos* (season 8)
1989 Texas Rangers

1990s
1990 Oakland Athletics
1991 Houston Astros
1992 New York Mets
1993 Texas Rangers
1995 Cleveland Indians
1995 Atlanta Braves
1996 Atlanta Braves
1996 Seattle Mariners
1997 Atlanta Braves* (season 5) **Champions
1997 Seattle Mariners
1998 Atlanta Braves
1998 Houston Astros* (season 8) ** Champions
1998 Los Angeles Dodgers
1998 Seattle Mariners
1999 Atlanta Braves
1999 Arizona Diamondbacks

2000s
2000 Atlanta Braves
2001 Atlanta Braves
2001 St. Louis Cardinals
2001 Boston Red Sox
2002 Atlanta Braves
2003 Florida Marlins
2004 Boston Red Sox* (season 2) **Champions
2004 Houston Astros* (season 3) **Champions
2004 Angels
2006 Boston Red Sox
2006 Los Angeles Dodgers*(season 4) **Champions
2006 Minnesota Twins
2007 Boston Red Sox
2007 New York Mets
2008 New York Mets
2008 Los Angeles Dodgers* (season 1)
2009 Philadelphia Phillies

2010s
2010 Boston Red Sox
2012 Boston Red Sox
2014 Los Angeles Angels
2014 Detroit Tigers
2015 Detroit Tigers
2016 Washington Nationals* (season 6) ** Champions
2016 Toronto Blue Jays
2016 Chicago Cubs
2017 Washington Nationals
2017 Cleveland Indians
2017 Los Angeles Dodgers
2018 Los Angeles Dodgers
2018 Milwaukee Brewers
2018 Washington Nationals
2019 Houston Astros
2019 Los Angeles Dodgers
2019 Atlanta Braves

2020s
2021 Houston Astros
2023 San Diego Padres