Re: Re: Value Wins !

I think there's an interesting conversation to be had about whether awards should be about value or ability. Ability will reproduce next season, value might not completely because value is part ability, part context, and part luck. But value is what wins ball games.

Here is an example comparing Paul Skenes and Cristopher Sanchez

Skenes had 6 starts where his team scored 6+ runs. He had a 0.98 ERA and went 4-0.
Sanchez had 13 starts where he got 6+ runs and went 7-0 with a 2.88 ERA

Skenes had 13 starts of 3-5 runs. He had a 2.09 ERA and went 6-2
Sanchez had 8 starts of 3-5 runs of support and went 3-1 with a 2.32 ERA

So, Skenes had 19 starts where his team scored 3+ runs and went 10-2, while Sanchez had 21 starts of 3+ runs and went 10-1.

Skenes had 13 starts where his team scored 2 or less and he went 0-8 with a 2.33 ERA. Note- he pitched his worst when his team scored their least and pitched his best when they scored the most. That is probably luck, but it resulted in real losses.

Sanchez had 11 starts where his team scored 2 or less. He went 3-4 with a 2.20 ERA. He pitched his best when the Phillies were at their worst, and he pitched his worst when they were at their best. Again, probably luck, but those are real wins that Sanchez picked up because of it.

This is a common pattern in pitchers greatest seasons.

1988 Hershiser 18-3 with a 2.70 ERA when getting 3+ runs; 5-5 with a 1.61 ERA when getting 2 or less.

1989 Hershiser 15-2 with a 1.78 ERA when getting 3+, 0-13 with a 3.21 when getting 2 or less.

The end result is 23-8 in 1988, a Cy Young and World Series win, vs 15-15 in 1989 and no playoffs.

The timing of your performance matters to winning, and while it would be dumb to have that factor into contracts, it should probably be reflected in awards.