Matt Carpenter homerun leader error
Re: Matt Carpenter homerun leader error
Based on the thread title, I expected the fact that Matt hits so many homers to be the obvious error. When something continually happens in a sim which would never happen in real life, something is broken.
Re: Re: Matt Carpenter homerun leader e
I really hate this slant
The sim is working exactly as designed.
Carpenter is sub 10AB per HR.
Stretched out of 600 or so ABs, the numbers will get ridiculous.
Haven’t you ever played with Cuban or Negro League guys?
Re: Re: Matt Carpenter homerun leader e
Never happen? I mean Bonds hut 73. Never say never.
Re: Matt Carpenter homerun leader e
I think we'll always have those who like playing with the small sample sizes and seeing the wild results and those who don't.
But, back to the original question - those all-time leaders pages can take some time to update, it may not show for a full 24 hours or more.
Re: Matt Carpenter homerun leader error
It's listed in there now, I just checked it using the link in the original message
Re: Re: Matt Carpenter homerun leader e
Maybe have the minimum AB be more than 125 in Favorite teams leagues.
Re: Matt Carpenter homerun leader e
The game is perfect the way it is.
Re: Matt Carpenter homerun leader error
Trulia - right on. I had the same thought. Bonds did something that never happens in real life in so called real life. - with a little help from his friends.
The villain and scoundrel got absolutely no where on the Contemporary Committee and with he and Clemens racking up only 25% I think it is safe to say - not in their lifetime.
Sorry for going off track.
Re: Matt Carpenter homerun leader error
BTW - I have a platooning carpenter who has banged out 8 homers in 10 games. It is a favorite team league so there is plenty of not so stellar pitching but he has been amazing and he is a highly rated hitter in the league.
Re: Re: Matt Carpenter homerun leader e
Nothing is perfect and things can always be tweaked. It happens here all the time.
Re: Matt Carpenter homerun leader error
I have a Matt Carpenter with 14 HR in 17 games.
Re: Re: Matt Carpenter homerun leader e
Re: Matt Carpenter homerun leader error
No HBP?!?
Re: Re: Matt Carpenter homerun leader e
Ridiculous- I understand that the SIM is strictly stats driven but games played happens to be a statistic and ignoring that while adding the ability to reduce Park size, On Fire, and Slump Buster makes this a joke.
Yes Bonds hit 73 Homers one year and he was definitely on Steroids but at least he actually HIT 73 HR's while walking a LOT because no one wanted to face him.
Getting Matt Carpenter in a draft with his 2022 stats gives that team an unfair advantage over every team that doesn't have him, and even having the best SP and RP can't compare or allow fair competition.
How anyone can't see that this is wrong is a mystery to me, same with Matt Olson in 2017 Leagues.
And His REAL OPS ranks him as 4th ALL TIME at 1.141 but with only 128 AB-
The fact there is no opportunity for regression is the real issue, other Posters have brought up the fact that SP need 85 innings at least reins that in - But if you consider that in 2022 the highest IP by an SP was only 201.1 then Pitchers are being held to a far higher standard to qualify - 85 innings out of 201 is about 42% of that pitchers stats and THAT was the Highest IP in MLB - for less innings Pitched the percentage is even HIGHER
An everyday player should get 500+ at bats - 125 ab is only equal to about 25% of a Season and is in MY opinion too small a sample to allow that player to qualify unless he has a usage cap.
But I have a work around, I simply don't play in those Leagues, that way I don't have to deal with this nonsense.
Re: Matt Carpenter homerun leader e
Sincity - Spot on across all of your points. Couldn't express it better.
Re: Matt Carpenter homerun leader error
The Carpenter season used is a season of 154 PA.
He had 15 HR and +.300/+.400.
Multiplying by 4.5 for extrapolation you get 693 PA and 68 HR. If you properly rest him ( he has a 4 endurance) he plays approximately 130 games.
It all makes sense.
Everything is connected.
It is manifestly correct.
I think he will slow down. He will probably hit between 70 and 90 HR.
Probably closer to 70.
Re: Re: Matt Carpenter homerun leader e
https://www.pennantchase.com/lgPlay..
90 Hr's in 700 at bats 700 that's a HR every 7.77 AB how is that possible with rest required every 5 games? That's 5 At bats a game for 140 Games
Plate appearances are immaterial by the way, Walks, HBP, Sac Flies don't count toward that total
Re: Matt Carpenter homerun leader e
He played 171 games in those 700 ABs.
Re: Matt Carpenter homerun leader error
His real life season was 15 HR in 154 PA.
As I said if he kept that up over an entire season of 700 PA. 68 homers in about 135 games isn’t impossible.
The conundrum is whether to allow players in one fashion to extrapolate their stats over a 162 season. The rough use of this gets an endurance of 4 games and then 1 game rest. He will play between 130 and 140 games while trying to keep him fresh.
It appears that 154 times a factor of 4.5 gets to 700 which is the number I have always used as a full season.
The endurance is thus between 4 or 5.
The alternative is a literal use of stats which we don’t use would be 1 game and then 3 games rest.
Or to simply degrade strength for each player according to their usage of play. Then being literal you start Carpenter at 100% and after one game maybe he goes down to 94% and next game 87% and then 80% - meanwhile his stats are taking a big hit and you could grind him down to zero. And maybe it will take 40 games of rest to get back to 100%.
This will enforce that he is going to get 154 to 165 let’s say over 162 games t be effective whenever he plays.
Our game rewards a player for what he does with his PA and comes to a mathematical compromise. There is still an endurance number but you get a full season of stats while subtracting some games of endurance for players who play less than a full season. If Carpenter played 82 games worth of PA it appears that he would get more endurance and the number could be 6.
I’m no math guy. It is just rough estimates for how this works. I had to cheat in very ingenious ways in school to get decent grades in math but that is for another day.
Re: Matt Carpenter homerun leader error
I would add that his number skews higher when he is in a favorite team league because there are mostly pitchers rated 30 to 60 with only 2 or 3 pitchers being 80 and up.
Re: Matt Carpenter homerun leader error
I told you guys my math is bad. I forgot to multiply 68 times .8 which would be 54 homers over the 135 or so season. The bad pitching hypes it up.
Re: Re: Matt Carpenter homerun leader e
I would like to point out that in a league I am in Matt Carpenter has 70 home runs but Ronald Acuna Jr has 73
Re: Matt Carpenter homerun leader e
Just one more real life data point in the Mighty Matt Carpenter saga:
MLB was so impressed with Carpenter's 2022 stat line that he fell to the Padres for what would be considered the bargain of the century if that 2022 small sample was to be believed.
'Matt Carpenter signed a 2 year / $12,000,000 contract with the San Diego Padres, including $12,000,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $6,000,000.'
Re: Re: Matt Carpenter homerun leader e
With only 154 plate appearance, Matt Carpenter generated a 2,4 WAR.
Anthony Rizzo with 548 plate appearance, generated a lower 2,3 WAR
When Carpenter hit the injury list in august, the Yankees were not the same team after this...
