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Pitching


Pitching

I used to play this Sim a few years ago and just started back with the quarantine

it feels like it’s skewed way more so to make any and every pitcher become randomly erratic for a 4-5 batter spurt that almost always ends up with a massive hit.

It makes sense for a reliever that’s normally wild but for SP’s with sub 3 bb’s Per 9 to have 3-4 walks in a row consistently is super strange.

Is that something that’s planned into the algorithm to create runs?

Re: Pitching

Noticed the same thing myself recently,

I don't know if a change was made that was intended to overcome the effect of DWar, - but something has definitely changed.

I am seeing WAY more big innings fueled by BB, HBP, WP, and other annoying crap like errors than before.

You are spot on with this analysis in my opinion.

Re: Pitching

To be clear there has been absolutely no change to HBP, WP or errors in recent memory.

If you haven’t been on the site in a few years, there is slightly more offense than before. Some pools like ATG were far too dominated by pitching. In general though auto leagues tend to have a league BA around .250 with teams scoring about 4.5 per game.

You are mostly in custom leagues so I’d be interested to know where it’s happening.

I have seen the consecutive walks issue a few times myself. Remember though often these guys are facing hitters who walked a lot two. But I can definitely double check to see if anything is amiss with the consecutive walks.

There is nothing intentional happening. There is no “string together a bunch of stuff” code. Every at bat is treated entirely on its own with no regard to what happened before or after.

Re: Re: Pitching


Wobs -- 4th and 9th innings ( both Pitchers have LOW BB/9 Rates https://www.pennantchase.com/lgBoxS..
Wobs 3rd Inning 2 BB and 2 HBP same inning??
https://www.pennantchase.com/lgBoxS..
I've seen a lot more like this - loads up the bases for the big hit - and against GOOD Pitchers too, really happening a lot more than it used to, and not always against me either, I have seen my teams do it to others, way more often than before.

Can it just be coincidence? I guess so, nothing untoward just a lot more common than before that I can see

Re: Pitching

True, 7 walks is huge for Santana, but some of those hitters have the highest walk rates, like Bonds and Arod. And Dolittle has been fine in his other 4 games. And I suspect same will happen for Santana.

Before rank was implemented, walks were much less common, which is why low H9 was even more important. High WHIP but low H and high K pitchers dominated. That doesn’t happen anymore, so things are much better or more realistic than they were. Walks have gone up since rank years ago, but like Guy said, nothing has changed since then. However, it would explain why tjmoss notices a difference.

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I’m new so I don’t have a past to reference but I watch the replay of every game and see exactly what you are talking about happening a lot. At first I said to myself things will even out over time but it’s to the point that I can predict it.

Maybe I’m just paranoid because a few of my better teams have had some bad runs lately but I notice I’ll have batters on fire go 0-3 with a walk and other teams 8 hole batter with no fire destroys me with a 4-5 day.

To be clear I am not complaining, just pointing out some observations from watching a lot of replays lately. I love the games and strategy. After my autoleagues finish I hope to find a custom league to dive deeper into strategies. I am also enjoying the new basketball leagues

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It’s in the last 40 years league where I have the Brooklyn Dodgers

The reason i brought it up is because it often happens with batters that don’t walk a lot in general and then a big hit occurs. From a few years ago I just don’t remember this phenomenon very often. Maybe I’m wrong tho

Re: Pitching

Go check out Mario Soto’s last two starts in the league

He’s a 2.7 bb/9 pitcher.

In his first start he had three walks in a row in the third inning and 2 walks in 3 batters in the 5th.

In his second start he had 2 walks in a row in the first inning, a 2 out walk in the third directly into Guerrero with his only on fire bat of the game for a homer and then in the 6th he gave up a double, walk, wild pitch then gave up a 3 run homer

The majority of the batters that walked didn’t have insane walk rates. Even Kenny Lofton who barely walked had two walks off Soto in one of the games

I just don’t remember the sim feeling so forced to create walks.

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Sure but you cant just pick two starts to look at and call it a trend. His first 5 starts he walked just 10 total. He’s also not a good pitcher in that league overall.

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To Brian’s point, I’m definitely concerned if it’s a trend across players in a large sample. I was looking at Santana across ATG and his walk rate seems fine, about 3.0 or a little higher in most cases which is more than his real stats but that’s to be expected.

I’ve seen the “three walks in a row” thing a few times lately. It’s jarring when you’re watching a replay. Especially when you watch a great pitcher do it. But I also recently watched Maddux not allow a single walk against my team twice in a row.

Something worth keeping an eye on.

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Well even his complete game with 3 walks...2 of Soto's walks were in a 3 batter spurt followed by a single.

In his 5 inning start vs the Benders...a walk preceded a few hits and a 3 run inning.

In his complete game one run win vs the predators he only had 2 walks but once again one started an inning which was followed up by a bunch of hits

Ive noticed it the other way for my team a ton of times as well. When I watch a sim back now id rather see a single than a walk tbh.

I'll keep an eye on it as well

Re: Pitching

Dwight Gooden’s most recent start. Arod had an error to start the inning and then Gooden walked Two batters in a row pinched in between two outs which was then followed By a massive 5 Run rally

I think my question now is: do pitchers have the ability to get rattled-in other words are their factors other than the stats being shown that would induce a big inning.

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Something else I’ve wondered about, do pitchers do better with a particular catcher behind the plate. Not sure if catcher game calling is factored in to the simulation

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Gooden is doing great in that league, and his BB/9 match his real stats . So again I think you are getting too focused one one game or one inning. All kinds of random things can and will happen. But there’s no emotion factor in the game, so no to rattling. Also no to catcher factor, besides their specific defense.

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ok thats all i really wanted to know. thanks

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https://www.pennantchase.com/lgBoxS..
That outing by darvish is something I’ve never seen happen on the sim

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9 BB in 5.1 innings is pretty high for a guy who walks 3.6/9

Re: Pitching

For me it’s much more worrying about the 5 walks in 6 batters. I was told there’s no rattling but in the last few months of sims it really feels like there’s something in the algorithm creating marked erratic pitching in specific spots. Even if a pitcher only has 3 walks it feels like at least two of those walks are part of a sequence.

Of Darvish’s 10 total walks and hit batters...9 were part of a consecutive sequence. The team I was playing was second to last in total walks.

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I will grant you that it is bizarre. He gave up one hit, so if the dice was rolling a different way you'd likely be seeing more hits, so his outcome overall would have been much worse in this game... the walks were actually a blessing... but I agree that I have seen more "clumps" of things happening... I'll run some tests on the random no. generator.

1000 percent there is no rattling code or anything like that... those who have been around long enough know I don't believe in that, and know that I believe random numbers do all the "rattling" and "streaks" they need all by themselves. And as Brian mentioned, there are more walks to align more with reality as of a couple years ago... but I take your point.

Re: Pitching

If he hadn't give up a hit, he might still be pitching today in this sim!

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gotcha! appreciate the quick response.

When you guys both mention walks are more common.. what does that mean sim wise? He mentioned the rank system equates to more walks now and I didnt understand how that worked.

If you could explain that...it might help me understand the walks conundrum better!

Re: Re: Pitching

There was some slight tweaking (it had nothing to do with Rank, it just happened at the same time as Rank came out) to better balance the hitter's chance vs the pitcher's chance of a walk. In general in the sim, walks were pretty low. Part of the logic is that if a pitcher has incredible control (think Greg Maddux) the weight should shift more toward the pitcher's skill... but that was resulting in some guys who *do* walk at an exceptional rate to not walk as much as they should, so it was balanced a little toward the hitters from where it was, and that seems to have resulted generally in more realistic numbers than we had before.

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Understood thanks! Def seems worthwhile to research these clustered walks!

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I just don't know how the sims work...

But let's say we do small probabilities homework here.

hope I am on track with this... if not feel free to notify.

If every outcome of each plate appearence are independant.

let say all Hitters succeding each other all have 80 walks in 500 plate appearances(AB + W + HBP + SAC) = 16% chance of a walk..

the pitcher they are facing is league average as far as W per 9.

chance of a hitter getting a walk : 16%

chance of 2 hitters getting consecutive walks : 2.5%
this will happen once every 40 ab, plate appearence
(20 times a year),more than once every 2 starts...

chance of 3 hitters getting consecutive walks : 0,4%
this will happen once every 250 plate appearence
(3 times a year)

chance of 4 hitters getting consecutive walks : 0,06%
this will happen once every 1600 plate appearence
(1 time every 2 seasons)

this is based on a starting pitcher that may face approx 825 batters in 200 ip season.

Now this is based on every event being totally independant.

Obviously, most of the times in real mlb, there should be a fatigue factor involve for these event to happen, or there is a chance of the pitcher being pulled by a manager before those consecutive events ever happens...

but in a sim game, where events are just pulled out of a hat based on mathematic probabilites, well these events are going to happen... out of the blue in a 3rd inning of a game instead of late in the 6th or 7th inning where the option of pulling your starting pitcher after 2 consecutive walks is there...

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https://www.pennantchase.com/lgBoxS..
8th inning - Totally unrealistic for two reasons,

1) None of those batters are "High Walk" guys

2) No Manager would have left that Pitcher in when he had 4 more rested Relievers and 2 of them BETTER options on the bench-in the 8th inning?? C'mon- just handed them that game- happening too often

Re: Pitching

Point #2 is a different discussion entirely. The walk cluster is still a fair point... a guy with 4.0 walks per 9, that's a pretty high number, so I wouldn't really care if he walked four guys in an inning once or twice a season, as long as his overall BB/9 was realistic relative to the player pool, but the cluster factor of it continues to be a little strange...

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OK, on Point number 2 - there really is no fix for that- although it is unrealistic - That's just bad managing by the SIM - Yes it is doing what I told it to, but there really aren't any choices that would prevent that.

he has 19 BB in 25 IP he's averaging 6.84 BB/9 - his true average is 4.0 BB/9 - he's almost 1.75 times higher in walks allowed then he should be. He was averaging almost 6 BB/9 BEFORE that outing

And he's no slouch, a 94 Ranked Pitcher. That League has a minimum 1.40 Whip requirement so even though it seems like he has a high BB/9 rating, he's actually pretty good in that League

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I may play devils advocate here...

What the sim will not give credit to, is the psychological factor of pitching... but loosing the plate as a pitcher is frequent and will happen even to the best pitchers....

Pitchers not being named Greg Maddux, will often have to face during a ballgame a moment where they will loose the plate for a short period of time during a ballgame...it can be great pitchers like Smoltz,Johnson, Nolan Ryan, Pedro, there is moment where they become their worst ennemies...

Out of the blue, They will even successively walk free swingers name Daffy Duck and Mickey Mouse at times... more often that we think... and be in complete control of their pitches for the balance of a ballgame...

It will drive the defensive players nuts and powerless for a short period of time... this is part of the game...

This is mainly how big innings are occuring, they will either regroup and get out of these jams or dig their own grave in one single inning and beat themselves...

Obviously in the spot you are mentionning sincity... pitcher would of got the hook after is second or third walk... especially considering it was a reliever...

For me pitchers pilling walks out of the blue for a short period is part of the game...

Re: Pitching

I agree on the theory that there are times when pitchers just " Lose the Plate" I have seen it happen Many times in real life and on PC,

That being said, as you also said, there is NO WAY in the 8th inning of a tied game that a reliever would have been left in to walk 4 consecutive batters- if he walked 2 and then threw another ball, the manager would probably pull him, especially when he had a full and deep bullpen.

That's kind of silly. I know the SIM has limitations - if he had given up a BB, 1B, and 3 Run HR - I would have felt better, that I understand, what happened was nonsense.

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Lose