Performance Limitations
Are there restrictions in the SIM that start to limit player performance when they get to certain thresholds? I notice a ton of times I’ve had Mark McGwire he’ll cruise to about 65 HR then he suddenly turns into a singles hitter. Anyone else experience the same? If so, why would the SIM do this?
Re: Performance Limitations
There are not changes to how a player SIMs, no matter how well or how poorly they sim during the season.
There are not thresholds that change the sim of a single player, or a team. It seems like it sometimes, but randomness can appear to be purposeful even though it is just random.
Re: Performance Limitations
Are you sure? If you play around in the Sandbox and create a person with outrageous stats (eg .800 BA and 300 HR) they’ll crank out insane HR stats but then when they get close to 65/70 HR, homers drop massively and the person will become a singles, doubles hitter.
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Qwert, just wondering where you’re getting that example from. It looks like you don’t have a sandbox according to your league list. I haven’t seen anything like you’re describing in all my years here, and I’ve seen some players with great seasons all the way through, no let up at the end, and I’m talking guys getting 100 HRs in a season.
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I was playing with my kids for awhile then quit when they went off to college. Was playing under clemens300. I missed the site so just recently rejoined.
Maybe I’m crazy. But I played 5 or 6 seasons in the Sandbox. Thought it would be fun to create a player with my name and give him superhuman stats. Each of those seasons he would quickly run to about 65 to 70 HR after about 50 games then his power would disappear. Happened each season.
In the regular SIM. Same thing with McGwire, particularly when he gets put into batting practice. 65 or so HR and then he can’t hit a HR for his life.
Maybe just coincidences?
Re: Performance Limitations
I think it does just depend. Guys do hit well over 70 homers in some seasons. Could be law of averages. But the fact you’re noticing a trend is a bit strange I would expect it to be hit and miss. I can’t think of anything in the code that would cause it but it’s worth double checking.
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On the same topic more or less..... I have read speculation on these discussion threads that a players actual base stats are randomly adjusted in the sim to give greater variation. For instance in the 1990 autoleague Larkins real batting average is .301. For some replay seasons the sim randomly tweaks him up to say .320, other seasons he is randomly set to have an off year and he drops to maybe .280. I can certainly see how this would make the sim more challenging.
Re: Performance Limitations
Efurman that is 100% false. The sim doesn’t randomly decide to change a players real stats season to season. If you’re doing a replay league where the commissioner changes stats each season to the players next career season then the change in stats is intentional but it’s nothing the sim is doing.
If you see his eOBP changing (expected OBP) that’s a reflection of the pitchers in the league. Better pitchers will drop everyone’s eOBP and worse pitchers will raise everyone’s eOBP but eOBP is just there to give you an idea for how he may fare against the competition.
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Interesting. So if a guy is having a really off year it's just plain bad luck with the random numbers that come up when he's at bat.... then there is no reason to bench him right?
Re: Performance Limitations
I have often thought that all players can have 5 possible Season outcomes and that the players getting the bump or knock- is something impossible to know unless you use players and it's an "Over Time" type thing. I actually think, and this is simply supposition, that a player can perform like this
1) between 7.5-15 % Worse than real Stats
2) between 5-7.5 % Worse than real Stats
3) Unchanged REAL STATS
4) between 5-7.5 % Better than real Stats
5) between 7.5-15 % Better than real Stats
It's not that their REAL Stats are changed, it's that they simply were given one of 5 possible outcomes at the start of the Season by the SIM, for their season which can be aided or negatively impacted further by Park Dimensions
But this is pure conjecture- Is the Scenario above possible Guy? It would allow for some variance in output year over year and in Real Life Players do have bad Seasons and Good Seasons
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SINCITYMARAUDER - that's exactly what i was wondering. I get why a players stats during a season don't match actual stats. But Other than Park dimensions I can't see why there would be such big swings in a player's performance from season to season based solely on random number generation if the base stats remain unchanged.
Re: Performance Limitations
On fire, slumpbuster and most of all, overall level of competition
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Great topic to bring up. I have felt for a while that player performance is pre-determined before a season is played. I have seen dramatic difference in stats from one season to the next on particular players. If I draft player A this season and he hits .220, or somewhere in and around the mendoza line....and then the next season that same player is hitting .300 and competing for a mvp. Very big variance. Same player, same stats......totally different results. Which in many ways, means you are essentially picking lotto numbers come draft day. Are you getting the best version of the player or the worst version?
Re: Performance Limitations
Don’t underestimate the power of randomness.
When I’m making builds for custom favorite team leagues, I often build 4 different versions s in my sandbox and sim them against each other for 162 game season. I usually sim 4-5 seasons because randomness can make a good team bad and vice versa in a single season. I’ve had a team win 100+ games 4 out of 5 seasons, and then with 82 one season! And that’s with no changes to park or lineup of any team and no slump Buster used.
Re: Re: Performance Limitations
Can't believe how many people don't understand how sims and stats and random number generators work, and think Guy pre-determines things at his whim. I once had someone tell me they were sure the sim decided who won based on the username. He was serious.
Yes, of course there's variance. Imagine if there wasn't!
Re: Performance Limitations
Another thing people don't seem to realize is that the sim doesn't care who the player is. The name is just a placeholder , the sim doesn't look at ty cobb and say , ohh he was mean so lets make him slump. If it's Babe Ruth or Joey Baggodonuts , he's going to perform based on his stats Yes , there is fire and slumpbuster but those are random also.
Re: Re: Performance Limitations
There's no predetermined outcomes and there are no categories of outcomes - it's truly all random.
The whole idea of 5 predetermined categories at the beginning of the season makes my head explode just trying to figure out how you'd code that (and why the hell you'd ever want to) - because don't forget the pitchers would need to have outcomes too - how could you even set a hitters outcome and have that not mess with the pitcher's predetermined outcome?
Trust me when I say, this game and any other sim like it, is rolling the dice in real-time for every at bat.
We scratch our heads when Babe Ruth hits .220 just like we do when you flip a coin and get 20 straight heads in a row (this happened to me a few weeks ago - I was entertaining my daughter if you're wondering why I was flipping a coin so many times)... or you roll a dice and keep getting the same few numbers several rolls in a row. The same thing is happening when a player has one great season followed by a bad season with nothing else seemingly changing.
But the beauty of numbers is that over the long haul, there are predictable patterns we can identify, which is why we still draft Babe Ruth after he had that terrible season, because we know the odds are in his favor the more chances we take with him.
Re: Performance Limitations
Wow. I thought GBACCI was actually the Wizard Of Oz. That he was sitting behind a curtain and pulling levers to effect outcomes in some sinister plot. Now I have no excuse for my performance………yikes!!
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I am happy that I finally know that there isn't the type of scale I wondered about.
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I wasn't suggesting there was someone behind a curtain pushing buttons and determining the outcome. Although this gave me a good chuckle. Lol (thanks for the laugh) But the computer doesn't write itself. It has to be programmed by someone. My thoughts were that perhaps there are certain parameters or trip wires that get hit, and once that happens, it takes the game in a different direction, or impacts a players performance. Even heavily, from one season to the next.
Re: Performance Limitations
It's an understandable assumption, because it can definitely feel that way at times. But no, it's truly at bat by at bat and nothing the player did before or after matters.
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Here's a prime example of that , I just joined a league called mlb 1969 golden years. The Houston Astros went 79-83 , were outscored by 62 runs , won their division and won the world series. In my time on this site thats the first time I've ever seen a losing team win a title.
Re: Performance Limitations
In one of my 2022 leagues, Matt Carpenter has 75 HRs and 180 RBIs through 154 games, with a OPS of 1.190. He's had 8 homers in his last 20 games, so no signs of slowing down.
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In Auto League 1138 after only 61 games, Carpenter has 50 (yes that's 50) homeruns !!!!! Now he's currently on slump buster so there will be some slowdown once he comes off. Let's see if that "brick wall" is coming.
