Pennant Chase Tips

One of the best tips I can give when gauging hitters is to look at the % of a stat as compared to the amount of at bats rather than the aggregate stat in itself

Example:

You'd rather have a 25 homerun hitter in 300 at bats than a 40 homerun hitter in 600 at bats due to the 1 in every 12 AB's per home run in the 300 at bats as compared to 1 in 15 for the 600 at bats (if everything else was equal) -anything under 1 in 10 for homeruns is elite and will be a hitter that should get 30+ homeruns easy if not 40-50

Over 50% of all season hits being XBH (or a player that can comfortably progress above this threshold) is another thing I look for in good hitters and is a great way to find value in hitters others may have overlooked

Be willing to sacrifice some defense in order to use (or trade for) a big slugger - unless the defense is atrocious the trade off is going to be net positive and most owners are too scared of the negative D

You'd rather have a slightly worse hitter that has a favorable homerun to double ratio than a slightly better hitter who hits for the alleys with all other things being equal - and this can be the difference in a good or great team if you pair that homerun hitter with a lot of fire (20+)

Only steal with 8/9 speed and maybe even only 9 speed - 8 speed is borderline net positive but you see way too many over 30 caught stealing scenarios

HBP is heavily overlooked - you can find some real hidden value added if the ratio is great (a full season with 15-20+) or a short season guy with close to 10 will get plunked all the time

BA is the most overrated stat - the algo doesn't favor the score on a single from 2nd base scenario for most players because to get above 4 speed is very tough - so I would steer clear of a lot of the slow high BA high OBP lower SLG guys that just dont sim very well and dont create a lot of runs

The magic number for on fire seems to be 20 (1 in 5) for a player that will be potentially better than they are supposed to be

D seems to be much less important at 3rd base than 2nd or SS and even less important at 1B- same with LF and RF as compared to CF

H/9 is the gold standard for pitching - should be the first and last stat you're looking at

Stamina is important for a SP if their stamina is below lets say 90 - can put a consistent strain on your bullpen even if pitching very well

High Stamina good RP are undervalued

Progression starts at 20 IP and 100 AB's and players progress about 75-100 OPS per progression if they are under 150 AB's - this means a 650 OPS 23 year old with 125 AB's should be over or close to 1000 OPS at age 28 - these types of players can change a franchise in a few seasons

I have a lot more but just some thoughts off the top of my head and I've played this site for over a decade so I'm very familiar - let me know your thoughts and maybe some other tips you have - especially if its basketball or football

This guy has played about 29,000 games with a high win % and 28 rings. Worthy of attention.

This is all excellent advice. I'd add a few things:
* Hitters aren't static.
* Lineup position is different than what you may be used to. I put my top four hitters in the top four slots, although I try to put my best hitters of those four in the 2 and 3 slots and make sure the leadoff hitter isn't slow as dirt. They get the most at bats. My understanding is that the on fire calculation starts at the top of the lineup and progresses through it to see who is the hitter who will on fire in the game (before progressing to the bench), if any. So your best hitters would also be the most likely to be on fire.
* And that also means that those in the bottom half of the lineup are less likely to be on fire. If you have a low average hitter with high power on a team you are confident will make the playoffs, you may want to put them towards the bottom of the lineup so that they tank due to not being on fire as much and they were already more likely to be below .220 BA. So if you bury them in the bottom of the lineup, they can give you the huge slump buster advantage for the last third of the season and the playoffs. If you have TWO of them, maybe you can set it up so that one is your slump buster in the first part of the season and the other for the stretch run and playoffs.
* Because of these on fire dynamics, your lineup's likely to fall off a cliff after the cleanup spot. I tend to put my slump buster in the fifth slot to extend my lineup's effectiveness. But I can see the value of putting your slump buster in the first three slots to maximize their at bats as slump buster, especially if they are already a good hitter.

* Some hitters will have better seasons than they should based on their stats, while others will have worse. Learn to judge when a hitter is doing well this year and when it's just a low sample size mirage. If a hitter's doing well in a big sample of games near mid-season, move them up in your lineup.

* Think of good hitters with low home runs as low ceiling hitters, rather than good hitters with potential for a great season. And they are not as likely to hit their low ceiling too. Low ceiling hitters should bring either 9 speed (so that they get bunt hits, can steal to get in scoring position, and more aggressive base running) or great defense. I love Wade Boggs as a Red Sox fan, but I will NOT draft him unless it's that one season where he had a bunch of homers.

* My understanding is that 70% success rate or so is where stolen bases become positive. This is what I do to try to keep my SB success up. I only have fast hitters steal bases if they are 8+ speed and if that speed rating is due to stolen bases, not just a ridiculous triples frequency. I never have 8 or 9 speed runners steal against catchers with a + arm if they have a stolen base rate worse than 1 SB to 10 AB. The runners with 10 speed are the only ones that I allow to steal third base.

Interesting commentary above regarding Stolen bases in PC. I myself like to use the stolen base, probably because in RL it has far more implications on the course of a game - pitching from the stretch, errors, infielders positioning, that have no effect in PC.

That being said, don't run on plus arms, and if you try to steal often you need an 8 SP rating MINIMUM and that probably will net you a plus 7-8 % Steal to CS rating

And stealing third is actually 72% all time MLB, while 2nd is 69% - Stealing third is often aided by having a RH batter at the plate, and, it's far less expected

I would just like to add that no matter how experienced you are or how long you've played on this site, you can always learn something new. I found this article by tjmoss86 to be well thought out and informative and it reminded me of some aspects of PC Baseball that I have either taken for granted or forgotten entirely.
Also, regarding SB's, I've found that the strategy you employ is very much format dependent - I use a more aggressive strategy in Deadball that ATG.

- The Sheik

Here's a good example of this most helpful tip of "gauging hitters is to look at the % of a stat as compared to the amount of at bats rather than the aggregate stat in itself." We've just finished up in League 781 (Best of 2024). Matt Walner with 220 real AB's hit 62 HR and was the league MVP. However, the oft-injured Mike Trout with only 109 real AB hit 98 HR's (including playoff games). Since Trout was on my Trash Pandas team, I'm sill ticked off he didn't win the MVP award.