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just a thought


just a thought

I often read where owners recommend looking at past results to see who should make a good player in any set League - I am OK with that as Hitters go, but for Pitchers it really has no value.

It's like saying 'Oh he went 17-4 must be good" or he went 5-14 he must stink, but because you have no idea what type of Defense a pitcher had when he compiled a 5-14 Record it could be a really bad example, just like a guy with really good record could have had stellar Defense - Just saying, it's apples and oranges with Pitchers

Anyone?

Re: just a thought

When there is a good amount of season being compiled, the global stats is quite a good guideline... If a pitcher cumulated a winning record over 10 compiled season, I think the sample size is fair enough to give you a good idea...

Re: Re: just a thought

That's more for Auto League histories. Far greater amount of sample size. It won't do as much in Customs.

Re: just a thought

I never look at those myself, not even for hitters, for the same reasons you mention. What were the park dimensions in a given league? Which pitchers did he face? I don’t trust those numbers at all compared to the pure stats that he’ll be playing with. That and my gut, which is huge. (I mean a huge factor in how I Draft my players - lol)
Gus (Captain Lol)

Re: Re: just a thought

There's one thing that really confuses me about this whole conversation: the focus on wins. I definitely look at past results, but at WHIP and H/9 and kind of SO/9. I'd say the offense of a team affects a pitcher's W-L record more than his defense--how well do they support him with runs?

As to the points gus is making, I've been eating a lot of junk food lately, so my gut may be even bigger than his. I don't have the winning % I'd like, but that's due to a lot of factors. However, here are my thoughts.
JayS mentioned sample size: it seems to me that if you've played more than 5-6 seasons, that evens out differences in park size, etc. In general. I spose a power hitting guy could have been in a lot of boost parks, partly b/c the owner drafted him, etc.
But if you go by lifetime averages, whips, etc., that factors in fluctuations, even if the highs and lows help determine the lifetime totals.
When I first started playing, I got crushed in quite a few auto leagues with daily drafts. I was going by real-life numbers mostly, but I wasn't reading the leaders in categories over the history of the league. I hadn't found that function yet.
Once I started doing that--around the time rank came in--I could ensure that I was getting players as near the tops in categories as possible--cumulative, of course. That can differ from rank quite a bit, meaning that a higher ranked guy can crap out, which is what had happened to me all the time previously, when I looked only at r.l. stats.
My results went up considerably. Now, I know I'm not an awesome owner, but I'm not clear on how a guy will depart significantly from a record he's built up in a league over 7, 8 years, except in terms of general variance. And if you know you have a good defense, etc., he should match some of his better stats...

Re: just a thought

I myself don't even care about W-L Record, I apologize, it was a bad example.

The only thing I look at is WHip, H/9 and K/9 -those are the statistics used to define a pitchers rank, and even though Rank does not drive performance, it indicates that pitchers value compared to the rest of the League.

Again as Gus said, if any given pitcher gets great defense behind him, he can be better, than his normal stats.




Re: Re: just a thought

When it's time to select a pitcher I will look at their
h/9, k/9, whip & stamina... ( I prefer hi K rate / low contact pitchers...)
W-L and era are irrelevant...


But if you look at compare across leagues... then W-L is a good guideline. It gives a good idea overtime if that pitcher will hold a winning or losing record most of the time...

if there is many season compiled... whatever is the defense factor, park dimension, offense support, bad owners, good owners, I don't really care...
The sample size is big enough that these factor becomes irrelevant and everything evens out... so the total stats is fairly accurate and gives a good idea of the stats than can be projected...

this is for auto leagues...

So when I am selecting a pitcher, and hesitating between 2 or 3 of them, most of the time, my tie breaker will be... to go to compare across league, and whoever as the best win%, will be my pick.... and I will also look at the ERA, It his quite a good global indicator that this pitcher is succeeding or not in that type of league... After all, good whip, a good K rate, a good h/9 rate will translate in Wins and a good ERA...and down the road, that's what you are looking for...