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11/27/2015

Progression study by IronHorse


Earlier this month IronHorse did an interesting study on progression, which he posted on the boards. I wanted to post it here so others could reference it in the future. Enjoy...

Ok I finished my hitter progression analysis.

Here are the basics of what I found.

Allstar- appears to progress better than the average and with a lower variance than the average. Also gains Fire quicker than any other type. Also regresses at an average rate.

Classic- appears to progress at an average rate. Increases HR at a rate well above average. Classic appears to regress faster than the average.

Flat- appears to progress at a rate well below average. Flat's progression is flat. Regresses at a rate much slower than the average. Again, flat is flat.

Superstar- appears to progress at a rate well above average with an emphasis is HR, OBP and SLG. Regresses at an average rate. Overall, over a 15 year career, Superstar is the only type that ends up in the positive.

Unpredictable- appears to have positive progressions that are significantly offset by negative progressions. Regression appears to be at an unpredictable rate (of course it does).

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByEfZO0YEDutQVpQQVFudEQ3UFE/view?usp=sharing

I was curious to project a player using my data. Here is Bryce Harper's projected progression using Classic progression.

Bryce Harper Age 22
0.330 0.463 0.649 1.112 42HR
Bryce Harper Age 23
0.334 0.469 0.672 1.141 45HR
Bryce Harper Age 24
0.338 0.475 0.695 1.170 47HR
Bryce Harper Age 25
0.342 0.482 0.718 1.200 50HR
Bryce Harper Age 26
0.346 0.488 0.741 1.229 53HR
Bryce Harper Age 27
0.350 0.494 0.764 1.258 55HR
Bryce Harper Age 28
0.354 0.500 0.787 1.287 58HR
Bryce Harper Age 29
0.358 0.506 0.810 1.316 61HR
Bryce Harper Age 30
0.351 0.498 0.783 1.281 58HR
Bryce Harper Age 31
0.344 0.489 0.757 1.246 56HR
Bryce Harper Age 32
0.337 0.481 0.730 1.211 53HR
Bryce Harper Age 33
0.330 0.473 0.703 1.176 51HR
Bryce Harper Age 34
0.324 0.464 0.677 1.141 48HR
Bryce Harper Age 35
0.317 0.456 0.650 1.106 46HR
Bryce Harper Age 36
0.310 0.448 0.623 1.071 43HR
Bryce Harper Age 37
0.303 0.439 0.597 1.036 41HR
Bryce Harper Age 38
0.296 0.431 0.570 1.001 38HR
Bryce Harper Age 39
0.289 0.422 0.543
0.966 36HR
Bryce Harper Age 40
0.282 0.414 0.516 0.931 33HR


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