Re: Gauging WAR vs. Rnk in the new norm
I find it weird to critique WAR as “ant sabermetric”
I dont think people should draft high H/9, low K/9 pitchers because they have high WAR. Fire is important, but it doesn’t outweigh the key components of keeping guys off base and getting on base.
That said- because this site uses raw unadjusted numbers measuring those components (whip, h/9, OBP, SLG, etc) it undervalues hitters from low scoring eras and/or who played in pitchers parks, and pitchers from high scoring eras, who played in hitters parks, and who gave up runners, but didn’t allow them to score.
WAR adjusts for context and pitcher WAR is based on runs allowed, not base runners.
Oil Can Boyd in 1985 had an ERA+ of 116 (16% better than league average). He gave up 3.87 runs per 9 vs opponents who scored 4.65. He’s saving 0.78 per 9. BUT, he also played in a hitters park and if we adjust his opponents by the rate of run inflation typical of the park, they score 4.85. Boston’s D took away .04, so remove that and we are at 4.81. Being a starter is harder than RP in 1985 and that’s worth 0.15 runs. Add that and we get 4.96 per 9 expected from his opponents. Now he’s saving 1.09 runs per 9. Over Oil Can’s 272.1 IP that’s 33 runs saved above average and 59 over replacement. In 1985 it took 9.67 runs per win, so 59 runs above replacement = 6.1 WAR
That is more sabermetric.
So, this is a slight tweak that balances a bit between adjusted stats and raw. The raw still matter more, but undervalued guys now get a boost. That’s cool to me.
I dont think people should draft high H/9, low K/9 pitchers because they have high WAR. Fire is important, but it doesn’t outweigh the key components of keeping guys off base and getting on base.
That said- because this site uses raw unadjusted numbers measuring those components (whip, h/9, OBP, SLG, etc) it undervalues hitters from low scoring eras and/or who played in pitchers parks, and pitchers from high scoring eras, who played in hitters parks, and who gave up runners, but didn’t allow them to score.
WAR adjusts for context and pitcher WAR is based on runs allowed, not base runners.
Oil Can Boyd in 1985 had an ERA+ of 116 (16% better than league average). He gave up 3.87 runs per 9 vs opponents who scored 4.65. He’s saving 0.78 per 9. BUT, he also played in a hitters park and if we adjust his opponents by the rate of run inflation typical of the park, they score 4.85. Boston’s D took away .04, so remove that and we are at 4.81. Being a starter is harder than RP in 1985 and that’s worth 0.15 runs. Add that and we get 4.96 per 9 expected from his opponents. Now he’s saving 1.09 runs per 9. Over Oil Can’s 272.1 IP that’s 33 runs saved above average and 59 over replacement. In 1985 it took 9.67 runs per win, so 59 runs above replacement = 6.1 WAR
That is more sabermetric.
So, this is a slight tweak that balances a bit between adjusted stats and raw. The raw still matter more, but undervalued guys now get a boost. That’s cool to me.
