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3/21/2018

The attempt to get the ship through rough water


While I do think the recent changes have us on a path in a better direction, it has been harder than expected to get the levels to a satisfactory point. So I wanted to create a blog post that I could reference and update rather than keep trying to find messages on the message board.

Here is how the "old" PC played out across Auto Leagues over a long sample size (one full month of games - we sim over 2700 Auto League games per day, so even a single day is a large sample...)

Runs/Game: 8.77

AVG OBP WHIP:
.244 .305 1.26

Break down by player rank in the old world:
90: .277 .348 0.98
80: .260 .323 1.11
70: .244 .306 1.20
60: .236 .296 1.27
50: .229 .284 1.34
40: .217 .272 1.41
30: .211 .264 1.50
20: .199 .237 1.70

The distribution there is pretty clean, and I'd like to be somewhere close to these numbers. What I'm seeing so far is that, while there have been spikes in offense that I've corrected, overall Runs/Game went down but OBP and WHIP went up, which means walks are more accounted for - which is good, this was always a slight sim flaw IMO.

As of this morning, 3/21, I'm seeing runs/game up a little too high. I will post back here once I feel we have the right levels and I don't have to tweak - I think we're getting close, and I'm monitoring it twice a day so we can quickly get where I think we need to be.

Update as of 3/26, 4:30 PM PST

Since a tweak in the afternoon of 3/22, we now have over four days of games (which would be well over 12,000 sims) to analyze, and the results are promising. We are basically at the same levels now that we were before. Here's the current breakdown, with the old levels in parenthesis:

RG: 8.75 (8.77)
BA: 0.244 (.244)
OBP: 0.309 (.305)
WHIP: 1.29 (1.26)

Note: WHIP and OBP are slightly up, but runs per game actually down. This signals more walks replacing base hits.

BA 90: 0.280 (.277)
BA 80: 0.262 (.260)
BA 70: 0.243 (.244)
BA 60: 0.231 (.236)
BA 50: 0.223 (.229)
BA 40: 0.214 (.217)
BA 30: 0.213 (.211)
BA 20: 0.196 (.199)

OBP 90: 0.353 (.348)
OBP 80: 0.330 (.323)
OBP 70: 0.308 (.306)
OBP 60: 0.293 (.296)
OBP 50: 0.282 (.284)
OBP 40: 0.273 (.272)
OBP 30: 0.267 (.264)
OBP 20: 0.246 (.237)

WHIP 90: 0.99 (0.98)
WHIP 80: 1.11 (1.11)
WHIP 70: 1.24 (1.20)
WHIP 60: 1.32 (1.27)
WHIP 50: 1.41 (1.34)
WHIP 40: 1.49 (1.41)
WHIP 30: 1.52 (1.50)
WHIP 20: 1.62 (1.70)

The biggest dip in all of the above stats is clearly the higher WHIP for those mid-tier pitchers. The 60-ranks are up 5 points, the 50 ranks are up 7 points and the 40 ranks are up 8 points.

To balance this, the worst pitchers are doing slightly better, seeing an 8-point WHIP improvement. But, even though the middle group is up in WHIP, runs per game across all leagues is down, which leads me to believe those mid tier players tend to walk more players. All in all this feels pretty solid - would love to hear what people are experiencing since I'd like to lock down the tweaking so everyone can proceed with consistent expectations.

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