8/21/2021 Season 8 PreviewSeason 7 is done. The Rangers are champs. The Expos made the World Series with 82 victories. And the Padres won a division with 75 while making it to the NLCS in spite of themselves. So what's in store for season 8? Let's take a look.
NL Central:
Season 7 Standings:
San Diego 75-87, -7
Chicago 75-87, +5
Milwaukee 74-88, -56
Houston 64-98, -187
San Diego Padres:
75-87 with no real imports of note and Mike Caldwell, a 53 rated player as a franchisee. In any other division the Padres would be toast. In the NL Central they are a contender. In fairness, the Padres have some decent players. Dave Robinson (.272, .358, .506, 34 HR's) is a very capable hitter who has not made an error in the outfield in six seasons as a starter. Leron Lee3 hit .282, .347, .509 with 51 doubles and 20 homeruns. And first baseman Nate Colbert had a down year with 38 HR's after 53 the year before.
On the mound Clay Kirby2 isn't special, but consistently puts in a mid 1.20's WHIP with double digit victories. Rich Hand has also consistently been low 1.30's while posting as many as 17 victories in a season. Out of the pen, Leon Everitt is really the Padres only star and last year was a bit down at 4.05, 1.20 with 3 saves. Back in the closer's role, he hopes to replicate his Season 6 numbers of 3.27, 1.17, with 31 saves.
Long and short, Padres are very mediocre, which may just win them a repeat of the division.
Prediction: 75-87, second NL Central.
Milwaukee Brewers:
The Brewers somehow managed to finish within one game of the division despite having more than a negative 50 run differential. This year, however, with some key imports in Ben Oglivie, Larry Hisle, and Paul Molitor, they look to be the class of a weak NL Central.
With the Brewers everything starts behind the plate with Darrell Porter2, who with 58 homers and 158 RBI's, was a monster last season. At only 28, he just figures to get better. OF Bobby Murcer2 is also an offensive breast. At .298, .377, .548, his numbers were actually down from Season 6, and so with a return to the mean, the Crew has two of the best offensive players in the game. Throw in added power from Hisle, and depth at 2b in the 23-year-old Molitor, and the Brewers figure to be better offensively.
On the mound they hope Season 7 franchisee Tom Murphy7 produces at a better clip than his 11-15, 4.41, 1.28 from a year ago as the staff ace. Additionally, if Ken Britt can have a career year and post a WHIP below 1.20, the Brewers might be in business. They will need a lot of innings from these two because the pen is not the Brewers strength. A rebound from Jerry Bell could help with that matter, however, if he can get back to his Season 6 numbers of 2.83, 1.14, after a terrible Season 7 at 4.41, 1.38. We think the Brewers players will regress to the mean in a positive way.
Prediction: 81-81, first place NL Central
Chicago Cubs:
The Cubs can hit. At 887 runs scored they were MLB's second highest scoring team behind Toronto in Season 7. From a position standpoint, the Cubbies can rake all around the diamond. At 3b Bill Madlock (.280, .329, .499, 112 RBI's, 103 runs scored) is on of the league's best at the hot corner. First baseman Andre Thornton has 30+ homerun power, second baseman Ron Dunn is good for 60 doubles and 30 homers, and catcher Rick Stelmaszek even pitched in 19 HR's last season. Outfielders Greg Gross and Joe Wallis are also both 30 homerun guys with high on-base skills at .344 and .356 respectively.
It's on the mound where Chicago gets crucified. For starting pitching they have literally nothing. They could probably go on the free-agent wire and create a better starting rotation than Jim Lonborg7, Rick Reuschel2, Mike Paul, Dennis Lamp, and Mike Smithson. In theory the bullpen is better. Bruce Sutter3 has had some amazing seasons for the Cubbies. But one has to wonder if the heavy workload is catching up. After a typical Sutter3 Season 6 (12-8, 2.40, 0.80), Season 7 was a nightmare at (5-10, 5.43, 1.49). Regression to the mean is needed if the Cubs are to have any hope of contending this season. Fortunately for the Cubs, franchisee Lee Smith8, Herb Hutson, and Willie Hernandez, do offer to bullpen depth to relieve Sutter3 if he falters.
Prediction: Too little pitching, 73-89, third NL Central
Houston Colt 45's:
At 64-98 and -187, you'd think the Colts would have had a miserable time in Season 7. But that was a nine win/66 run improvement over Season 6! Throw in the fact that young players such as 1b Doug Rader, 2b Joe Morgan, OF Rusty Staub5, and starting pitchers Larry Dierker, Bob Kipper, and Don Wilson all figure to get better as they age, and suddenly there is hope in Houston. Hope for a playoff spot? Not yet.
Prediction: 69-93, fourth NL Central (but getting closer).
NL East:
Season 7 Standings:
Phillies: 100-62, +110
Expos: 82-80, +19
Mets: 82-80, +6
Pirates: 72-90, -71
Phillies: Though the Phillies won six more games last season than in they did in their championship year of Season 6, they actually had a run differential that got worse by 31 runs. A +110 is still really solid, however, and we think that the Phils' blend of hitting and pitching is a recipe to win what should be a very competitive NL East.
Offensively, it is hard to find a weak spot on Philly's roster. The only real dark spot is catcher (which is pretty much everybody's offensive dark spot). At 1b, Greg Luzinski holds down the fort well. At 24 HR's he was a little weak for the corner, but 58 doubles and +5 D more than made up for it. At 2b Jose Baez is offensively a bit weak at .221, .291, .342, but he plays good D (+22) at a key position up the middle and so the Phils are okay with this. This is especially true when one looks at the next base, where Mike Schmidt3 holds down the hot corner with a hot bat having hit .284, .358, .632, with 53 homers and 134 RBI. Other potential contributors are OF Larry Hisle (30 HR's), OF Scott Reid (40 HR's, a career best by 21), and Oscar Gamble3, who hit 58 HR's just three seasons back.
On the mound Philly is strong as well. Ace Steve Carlton very well could have won the Cy Young in Season 7 after going 20-5, 3.27, with a WHIP of 1.06. Jim Nash4 is solid but unspectacular (career 4.34, 1.34), and you could do worse than Larry Christianson, Rick Wise, and Wayne Twitchell6 to round out a rotation (just ask the Cubs). Philly also beefed up a decent pen with even more depth by adding Rick Reed (rank 81), and franchising Gene Garber8 (rank 80). Look for a lot more winning in Philly this season.
Prediction: 91-71, 2nd NL East
Montreal Expos:
After years of chronically underachieving the Expos did so again in Season 7, until they didn't, and made a run to the seventh game of the World Series. After blowing a 3-1 Series lead, however, the fans and the franchise are in no mood to tolerate anything less than a championship. Enter franchisee OF Andre Dawson8.
Dawson8 plays +2.13 D with 7 speed. This could be a game changer for the Expos' fortunes. Dawson can also hit a bit, which means that he compliments the outfield of Ken Singleton5 and Rusty Staub perfectly. Speaking of Staub, it is terrifying to think what a move toward the mean could mean for other teams after he had the following DOWN season (.276, 366, .615, 59 HR's, 120 RBI's). Yes, those numbers were far worse for Staub than the previous season. The same was true of the Expos other star hitter, 2b Marv Staehle, whose .288 average was a drop of 55 points, 20 HR's were a drop of 26, and 83 runs scored were a drop of 34. Assuming Singleton5 doesn't regress much at age 33, the Expos appear primed to score runs in bunches.
Which is great when Dawson8's D is ready to help a pretty decent pitching staff get better. It's hard to be better than Steve Rogers, who at 17-10, 3.25, 1.07, was in contention for the Cy all season. Balor Moore, only 25, was also pretty good at 13-11, 3.67. And Larry Jaster2 may benefit the most from Dawson8's D having been a bit down last season at 11-13, 4.58, 1.34. If he returns to his Season 6 numbers (16-7, 3.45, 1.01), then the Expos might have the best top three starters in baseball. This bodes well for Montreal as the bullpen is not their strength. Closer Don Demola (4.24, 0.94), and Set-up man Dale Murray (3.24, 1.17), are quite good, but the rest of the pen is much weaker. The starters will need to eat some innings.
Prediction: Starters get better and the Spos finally achieve, 93-69, 1st NL East
New York Mets:
The Mets are well managed and have solid pitching that is getting better, but they just don't have much power with the bats. New York's Season 8 franchise player Cleon Jones8 is a nice addition to the NY outfield, but is classically lacking in power like the rest of this roster. New York is going to have to depend on a formula of walking a lot, moving runners, and winning low-scoring games if they are going to be competitive.
OF Tommie Davis6 may be NY's best power option having hit 29 HR's last season. 2b Ron Hunt had 19, OF Jim HIckman 20, Catcher Jesse Gonder is a season removed from 20, but you can start to see the issue when division rivals have the likes of Staub (59), and Schmidt3 (53) on their roster.
On the mound NY is more competitive. Tom Seaver7 didn't put up ace numbers last season (11-16, 4.41 1.29), but at only 25 and constantly getting better the team is excited about him coming out of camp. Jim McAndrew is another nice 25-year-old who won 16 games last season. Nolan was at 3.01, 1.16 at only age 21. And Jerry Koosman and Sonny Siebert6 are as good a 4-5 as their is in the league. Toss in Season 6 Cy-Young winner Grover Powell out in the pen, and you have the makings of a really good pitching staff. But is it good enough to make the playoffs?
Prediction: Not yet, a down year before a big leap in Season 9, 77-85, 4th NL East.
Pittsburgh Pirates:
The Pirates should be better than they have been. Season 8 Franchise Player Jay Bell8 may make this reality. Bell8 is a rare commodity in baseball, a slick fielding shortstop who should also be able to get on base. Couple with Johnny Ray and Jose Lind, who combined for +30 on D at 2b last season, the Pirates figure to have the best mid-field D in baseball.
Where Pittsburgh does struggle, is producing runs. Barry Bonds6 is pretty good at it (33 HR's, 106 RBI) two seasons back. And Bobby Bonilla4 (34, 120 RBI), did it last year. But other than that they really don't have a lot of pop. Dave Parker2 is way past his prime and had only single digit HR's last season. LaValliere is a nice catcher, but doesn't hit home runs or get on base much. Bell, Ray, and Lind are great defenders, but...
Pittsburgh needs pitching to win. And they have some. Jose DeLeon is a former Cy Young winner who we predict will return to Cy-Young form with the addition of Bell. Randy Tomlin is a talented young arm who also could contend for the award. Toss in Drabek5, Tudor3, and Candelaria7, and you can understand why this team might surprise. Add in three top tier relievers in Guante (2.54, 1.16), Gideon (3.00, 1.25), and Barry Jones (3.60, 1.24), and we think Pittsburgh just might surprise a bit by earning the NL's last wild card slot.
Prediction: 82-80, 3rd NL East.
American League:
AL West:
Season 7 Standings
California 93-69, +24
Texas 89-73, +88
Seattle 88-74, -55
Oakland 57-105, -235
California:
The Angels have a big problem. They can't hit. For years their stellar pitching made up for this. No longer. Though Frank Tanana6 is the real deal as their ace at 12-12, 3.93, 1.26, in a down year, the back end of California's rotation is aging, and without any bats, they should finally fall behind Texas in the division standings.
So is there anything on offense? Yes, a little. Catcher Ray Fosse (.283, .338, .492, 30 HR) is a really nice player at a position where it's hard to find nice players. 1b Dick Allen7 is aging, but still hit 40 HR last season. And OF Jim Williams bopped 34 HR's. With Franchisee Bobby Grich8 at 2b, and a decent hitting Bobby Valentine at SS, perhaps the Angels will hold on for one more year.
After all, they do have Tanana6. They also have Nolan Ryan (14-11, 4.24, 1.18). And out of the pen they've got some juice with Dave LaRoche (3.25, 1.26) and Lloyd Allen (3.73, 1.76). Nevertheless, the Angels just feel like a team in decline. Texas won the World Series. We're pretty sure Texas will finally win the division.
Prediction: 78-84, 3rd AL West.
Texas Rangers:
You would think it would be hard to top a World Championship. But with the additions of imports Oscar Gamble, Bill Sample, and Danny Darwin, Texas is thinking big. Frankly, the Rangers are just plain loaded. It starts with 3b Bill Madlock (.298, .382, .576, 55 2b, 19 3b, 22 HR) who may be the best all around player in the league. Add Jeff Burroughs3 (three straight 100+ RBI seasons), import Gamble (rank 97), and the defense of 2b Bump Wills and SS Toby Harrah4, and Texas is simply great on the offensive side of the ball.
On the mound they are just as good. While Madlock is MVP material at 3b, Don Stanhouse won the Cy Young after going 19-8, 2.77, 1.17. Bert Blyleven5 won 16 games, Gaylord Perry won 15, and Franchise Player Fergie Jenkins is undoubtedly the best fourth starter in the league. If that's not enough, Steve Lawson is great out of the pen (3.15, 1.13), which means the Rangers are the odds on favorites to win the American League again.
Prediction: 97-65, 1st AL West.
Seattle Mariners:
While Texas may be the favorite, and California has the history, Seattle could be a sneaky pick to make the playoffs in the American League. Why? For starters, Season 8 franchise SS Jim Fregosi8 provides the kind of defense that could turn a starter like Bob Stoddard into a Cy Young winner. At +2.51 Dwar with a bat, Fregosi8 may be the best shortstop in the league. Catcher Kevin Pasley is certainly one of the best on-base guys in the league (career .378 OBP). Frank Robinson7 has some pop in the outfield. Import 1b Alvin Davis will help the infield. If Eddie Matthews6 doesn't fall far off his 38 HR's, the Mariners may be in business.
On the mound Bob Stoddard has finally arrived. His 14-11, 3.47, 1.18 is Ace material and he only promises to get better this season. Byron McLaughlin is a decent 2, and the rest of the rotation is sufficient to win some games when one considers what's in the bullpen. What's in the pen is Steve Burke (2.51, 1.14), Rick Honeycutt (3.83, 1.16), and young Ed Vande Berg. If it all clicks, Seattle could be dangerous.
Prediction: 85-77, 2nd AL West.
Oakland Athletics:
Predictions are hard. But one prediction that is not is that Oakland will be bad. It is true that they may have the best 1-2 punch in baseball to start each game in Ricky Henderson3 and Joe Morgan8. Both play great defense. Both bring great speed. And both can get on base like crazy. If only the current owner didn't mismanage Henderson3's level 10 speed and actually let him steal, the A's might score some runs. They'll need them because their pitching stinks.
In theory it shouldn't. Vida Blue2 is rated at a 94, elite status. But his numbers last season were 8-18, 4.51, 1.31, pedestrian. Mike Norris4 is a even bigger mystery. He has an 80 ranking, and it was 81 last season. Yet, he went 4-23, with a pathetic 6.11 ERA and terrible 1.58 WHIP. One bright spot is Jeff Jones (2.96, 1.13) out of the pen. But he is probably better used as trade bait to a contender than as a closer at this point.
Prediction: 55-107, 4th AL West.
AL Central:
Last Season's Standings:
Minnesota: 94-68, +172
Cleveland: 84-78, -4
Toronto: 81-81, +32
Chicago: 78-84, +16
Minnesota Twins:
Though the decline doesn't feel as imminent as that of California, after two seasons without a championship, one wonders whether the Twins better days are behind them. Nevertheless, there is a enough talent here for one more run.
It starts with the absurdly powerful Johnny Weekly (71 HR, 159 RBI), who pairs dangerously with the equally powerful 3b Gary Gaetti (52 HR, 98 RBI). The outfield is insanely deep with Brunansky (rank 100 and top end D), Puckett (Best outfield D in the league at +3.36), and Miguel Dileone stealing 80+ bases every season.
Where the Twins may soon struggle is with their pitching. Tommy John is still young and top notch with 17 wins and a 3.80 ERA. But Steve Carlton (44) and Bert Blyleven8 (37) are very good, but getting old fast. The bullpen is middling with a bunch of 70's relievers and so the Twins are hoping the starters go deep into many games. What do we think? Toronto finally has its day.
Prediction: 93-79, 2nd AL Central
Toronto Blue Jays:
Owner NBB is a man with a one-track philosophy; pure power. It appears that the philosophy is about to pay dividends. In Season 7 no team scored more runs (909) than did Toronto. Additionally, as their pitching improved, no team had a better run differential than the Jays' +164.
Toronto's lineup is simply ridiculous. Leading off, 1b John Mayberry2, 45 HR and 100 RBI. Batting 2nd, 3b Roy Howell (38 HR). Third, Lloyd Mosby4 (33 HR and 100 RBI). Cleanup (as if there is anything left), George Bell6 (37 HR and 108 RBI), oh, and he had 53 HR's the year before. What about fifth? Cliff Johnson7, 55 HR's and 135 RBI's. In the sixth slot, Al Woods, a pathetic 22 HR's and 77 RBI's. And 7th? The Jays poached Colt's catcher Merritt Ranew and his 22 HR's. Maybe the 8th spot is weak? Actually, Sam Khalifa is a weak hitter. But he's a +D shortstop and so the Jays will take it. Offense will not be an issue in Toronto. What about pitching?
Considering that Toronto plays in a big boost ballpark to both fields, Dave Steib3 was amazing last season at 19-8, 4.16, 1.31. Steve Renko (13-14, 4.37, 1.37) was also solid in the band box and Season 8 Franchisee Jimmy Key8 could finally put Toronto over the top. The bullpen also boasts several great players including Victor Cruz (3.45, 1.07), Tom Bruno2 (2.99, 1.13), and Jeff Robinson (3.65, 1.16). The Jays combo of great hitting and sound pitching is going to be something to behold.
Prediction: 100-62, 1st AL Central.
Cleveland Indians:
The window is closed. Cleveland still boasts some fantastic talent, but would be wise to trade for youth while Toronto is on the rise. Offensively the addition of franchise player Oscar Gamble8 will prevent an offensive collapse that will condemn the Indians to total irrelevancy, but the reality is that the end is only a year or two away. After only 76 wins and a negative run differential last season, why not start now?
3b Greg Nettles3 would argue that you don't shut it down now because he still suck up balls at third like a Hoover vacuum while also hitting 30 HR's. Boog Powell7 would argue don't shut it down because despite his age and some regression, his 58 HR's and 130+ RBI's last year mean that regression is 40+ and 100. OF Russ Nagelson would argue don't shut it down because he's still capable of an OBP over .400. Ruppert Jones would say don't shut it down before he has another chance to hit 30+ homers.
On the mound Luis Tiant2 would say don't shut it down after he just posted the second best WHIP of his career at 1.09. Does he have another Cy in him? Sam McDowell5 would say don't shut it down after his 15 win 1.16 WHIP season. Closer Phil Hennigan would argue don't shut it down because he is coming off a stellar 2.86, 0.93 season.
Cleveland clearly has pieces. Just not enough of them.
Prediction: 79-83, 3rd AL Central
Chicago White Sox:
It's not the Sox fault they've played in a brutally tough division in a decade in which they have had few solid imports. This will change once the 80's arrive of course. Baines, Kittle, Walker, Fisk, Hoyt, etc., the Sox will rise at some point. For now, however, the fans will need to settle in for a few seasons of mediocrity.
There is not much to say about the Sox. They hit okay. They pitch okay. 1b Dick Allen is a danger to hit 40+ HR's, and Jim Eisenreich is certainly good for 30. OF Carlos May3 is solid too. It's just this team isn't as solid as Minnesota or Toronto.
On the mound it is similar. Rich Gossage5 (2.70, 1.14) is a wickedly effective reliever. Wilber Wood6 (14 wins), and Brad Havens (12 wins) are okay as top end pitchers. They just aren't as good as Tommy John, Dave Stieb3, or Luis Tiant2. So what's happening in Chicago this season. Probably a lot of 2 game win streaks and 2 game losing streaks.
Prediction: 68-94, 4th AL Central. |
