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Defense WAR


Defense WAR

Hey everyone,

Has the impact of defense been lessened, I just started noticing a significant drop in my defensive hits saved across my leagues. Did I miss an announcement? Certainly would impact my draft strategy significantly.

Regards,

Sports Guy

Re: Defense WAR

In a word, yes. Especially 3B, C - and it seems like CF has been reduced. Even SS seems less.

- The Sheik

Re: Re: Defense WAR

Guy can answer for sure, but I compared my current 2021 auto league players to prev seasons (hasnt changed to 2022 yet). My SS had 30, 44 last two seasons and currently has 32 with 33 games left, so on pace for slightly less. So is the top SS in the league, who had 65 the last two seasons but has 47 now (57 pace). I checked one more top SS and he had 34 and 27 past two seasons, and 29 right now, so his pace is higher than the prev two seasons. My 3B has the same exact number as last two seasons (29) and we have 33 games left. I checked the top defensive OF and he as 26 now. His prev high was 20. Of course if your team has more Ks from the pitchers there will be less D plays so there are other factors. Just in this league it doesnt seem noticeably different. Some are about 5 below, some 5 above, some in same range.

Re: Defense WAR

A while back I did shift more chances to the corners… that was one thing most people had wanted so it’s possible shifting a few more chances away from SS/CF is having an impact. That wouldn’t explain less results for 3B/C. If there are some examples I can take a look.

Re: Defense WAR

Here’s another question. We’ve been told once an out becomes a hit for poor defense, that hit can then be anything. In box scores I’ve seen singles doubles probably even triples with an asterisk next to them indicating poor fielding made it a hit. But I don’t think I’ve ever seen HR with an asterisk. Has anyone seen that? Do poor fielding HR happen but just no asterisk?

Re: Re: Defense WAR

I noticed big drops as well from the top DWAR guys - guys who usually save 80-100+ hits in a season saving only 60-80 instead. I was actually going to comment on this to ask if the sim engine had changed at all. Anecdotally, the only guy in my most recent all-defense ATG build who met expectations was Brooks Robinson at 3B, which supports what Guy posited as the cause. And across multiple leagues it feels like I've been getting burned more by negative-dWAR 1B than previously.

Re: Defense WAR

I’ve seen Ernie Banks frequently rob as many as 5 hits in a game and he is prodigious.
That’s like getting a hit for each robbing.
I think he should get a higher ranking.

Re: Re: Defense WAR

Here are couple results where Défense is reacting way differently that it used to....

CF Erstad with a higher DWAR (2,18) having about the same amount of D+ 16 in 70G
than RF Jones with a lesser DWAR (1,93) D+ 14 in 65G

Erstad would normally pile up around 55 d+ per season
now on pace for way lower 37

https://www.pennantchase.com/lgTeam..

Scott Rolen usually stabbing D 50+, now on pace to a below standard 26 in this one....

https://www.pennantchase.com/lgPlay..


Jose Oquendo usually saving D+ 55 per 162, now on pace for only 29

Definitely not worthed the effort of getting him a spot in the lineup anymore...

https://www.pennantchase.com/lgPlay..

I dont know if this is a relevant and big enough sample size... but it seems like there will be a lot more odd results coming our way from the new leagues I am in....

Re: Defense WAR

As an example, I just finished a Deadball season with Terry Turner at SS. He had 53 D, as compared to his previous full seasons of 122, 133, 90, 122, 115. Pretty drastic difference.

https://www.pennantchase.com/lgPlay..

Re: Re: Defense WAR

Drastic change, since you also have to consider is error rates vs is D+....

from a + 90 differential to a + 25....


And this is where it will be difficult... I am now seeing SS with an approx .971 to
.980 FLD % and an approx 1 DWAR getting negative outputs of Errors vs D+.

Alan Trammel in best of 80's comes to mind....

This should never be the case... with a + 1 DWAR, that player should be a defensive asset, not a liability....

Re: Defense WAR

Thanks, I'll take a look at this.

Re: Re: Defense WAR

YankeeBB - I myself have NEVER seen a Negative DWar Home Run - although I still would not put Jose Canseco in my OF for fear of a Ball bouncing off his head and over the wall... so there's that..

I have been told that a CATCHER can DWar a HR away, which is the most ridiculous thing I can imagine.. but it can happen

Re: Defense WAR

I've noticed a change from when I left over a year ago. Defense has been diminished. Especially up the middle, where it counts.

Re: Defense WAR

I’ll course correct on the adjustment as in some cases it’s looking to have an oddly powerful effect. The turner example in deadball is quite extreme.

Re: Defense WAR

Does it actually need correction, or was everyone just caught off guard? People used to complain about dwar being too powerful all the time.

Re: Re: Defense WAR

I had a thought about this, has anyone looked at pitching stats compared from say 2 seasons ago?

all those extra hits allowed should have pitching stats down as well unless your a big strikeout pitcher.

Re: Defense WAR

People complaining about defense are the same who would like to have Manny Ramirez in CF, Jose Canseco in RF and Gary Sheffield in LF without getting punish and without having to care about defense....

Defense is and should be relevant and a key component of winning baseball games...

In 1999,
SS Rey Ordonez 4.0 DWAR by itself almost cover Sammy Sosa's OWAR of 5.0 ,
Mike Piazza had 40hr and 124 RBI as a catcher and end up with a total of 4,3 WAR.... or Vlad Guerrero had a 4,4 WAR with a 42HR, 131 RBI and 975 OPS....

As a figure of importance, You can now figure that a 4DWAR season at SS is almost as good as a 63 HR season....

Ordonez glove alone was as valuable as Vlad Guerrero....

Re: Re: Defense WAR

If you really want an idea of how important dwar is , take a look at the roster of the owner who recently posted about having a 38 game win streak, wduncan

Re: Defense WAR

That's not even a Keeper League, I don't know how he was able to get that many HIGH DWar players, that's crazy

Re: Re: Defense WAR

This team just finished it's season - Andrew Jones with only 42 takeaways and Simmons with 71.

https://www.pennantchase.com/lgRost..
I can remember when Simmons was a lock for 100+ and Jones would have 80+.

- The Sheik

Re: Defense WAR

But Terry Turner (same DWAR as Simmons) had 120. And Austin Jackson (lower DWAR than Jones) had 79. So clearly those numbers are still possible and other factors have something to do with it also.

Re: Defense WAR

i have simmons and gomez in an auto league and they are on pace for 80 ish and 55ish seems pretty normal to me for this team

Re: Defense WAR

looking across other leagues that number seems lie it is an anomaly of sorts