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dWar is the new Range Factor?


dWar is the new Range Factor?

I'm trying to understand why the sim now is rewarding high dWar players at EVERY position with runs saved. First Baseman can now have over 30 runs saved (edit: Hits taken away) in a season, along with right fielders, catchers and second basemen. Owners are basically loading up their entire roster with high dWar players (this is especially problematic in custom leagues with random player generation making all kinds of players with high dWar no matter the position).

If we look at MLB history, players with 3+ dWar in a single season typically have great defensive seasons on their own. You will never see a great Centerfielder with 3+ dWar in a season have a teammate in Right or left field with 2+ dWar at the same time. You MIGHT see something like the 1989 Cards, with SS Ozzie Smith's insane dWar season and teammate 2B Jose Oquendo with 2.8 dWar, but this is an anomaly.

At this time on PC, loading up on dWar is becoming a gimmick for teams to game the sim and keep other teams from scoring, much the same way as range factor used to be when I first joined the site. I could understand if hits taken away was a big deal for players at shortstop and centerfield, and a lesser extent with second & third base, left field, and catcher. But 1B and RF definitely shouldn't be taking away hits at this rate and shouldn't defensively be having this effect on the sim. Most balls in play are going to the SS, 3B, LF, CF. That's just how baseball works.

Maybe the solution is in the sim itself, or it's with making caps on dWar for particular positions. I don't know. But I wanted to share this thought and find out what gives.

Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

so, you dont use players with high dwar i assume? its dumb to complain about the rules and then dont follow them.its like if you go to vegas and get 20 and complain that dealer won with a 21.it is what it is.if you can make a better game then do it,otherwise enjoy this FREE game!!!

Re: Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

Ya I don’t think you are understanding what Raider is explaining. I made a similar post a few months back about this. It is a valid request and is something that should be reviewed and updated when possible

Re: Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

im in both of your fave teams leagues. you win some you lose some dwar is subjective anyway.if the batter hits it by my shortstop was he slow,is he hung over who knows,this is still the best online as are your
2 leagues.heres another example lets say you played on a team like last years astros where there were a lot of ks,actualy nowdays thats everyone. as a fielder you ll get less chances and every error will make your fld pct worse. it doesnt mean your a worse fielder.for years the mariners left fielders were awful but they never made a lot of errors becuz jr would get balls they should have went after.there will never be a perfect way to quantify defense

Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

when i was 10 i was 5 ft 11 160 lbs.i could hit the hell out of the ball. but i had the "yips" or whatever you want to call it .i could catch the ball fine but i coudlnt throw accurately to save my life so they put me at first always got the batter out but would hold onto the ball rather than throw to 2nd to complete the double play.better to have a guy on 2nd than 3rd or score.my fld pct was great,but i was a lousy fielder and by high school my bat didnt cut it.isnt baseball an amazing game.its played by teams but its the only sport where the defense puts the ball into play

Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

It’s not 30 runs saved. It’s 30 hits taken away. Those are very different things. Over 162 games. But I understand the concern. At the same time in real life Babe Ruth didn’t play next to Barry Bonds either.

It does feel “too high” for the really good defensive players.

Re: Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

My vote is that I like Dwar -- I think it adds an interesting aspect to the game. In real life, baseball GMs have to choose between good offense and good defense -- it's great we do too! And there's no sense in having defense be a factor unless there's some really great defenders and really bad defenders.

In the all-time great leagues, it seems like the best defenders save around 50-60 hits per year; they usually play SS, 2B, and CF to maximize their defense. You can usually hide a bad defender at DH or in LF and the LF maybe gives up an extra 15 hits a year. This seems pretty reasonable to me.

Maybe in custom leagues there can be some crazy Dwars; Then again I'm not sure if that would make the game more or less fun. Just like in real life, it's more flashy to sign a home run hitter, but a good defensive SS can make a big difference. I'd still draft Bonds over Ozzie smith :)

Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

I really like the way dwar is now in the auto leagues. it gives you a chance if the big sluggers are taken, it gives you a chance against them with great defense.
My winning percentage skyrocketed once I learned how valuable defense was, plus pitching.
Now you have to think, do I selected the slugger that cant field or do I select a slightly less hitter, but they can field.
I try to never have - dwar players, if I do I try to DH them, this does not always work, sometimes, I have -dwar players, but they better big great hitters.
Pitching and defense wins.

Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

Let’s use my league as an example, a league that both raider and VIP are in and which definitely has too many high dwar players. Players have played between 100-110 games. The highest HITS saved player has 69. Nine players have 50 or more, so one hit every two games. Most of those players have a dwar over 3, which we should all agree should be rare or never. The highest 1b (with 2.3 dwar) has 20, so one every 5 games. Not hard to imagine for a real good defensive 1b. I also think overall it feels too high, but the bigger issue for sure is custom leagues which allow too many players too high (which I did).

In my one 2019 auto league, which is using real players dwar, there are just two players with more than 13 hits saved in 50 games so far.

Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

Thank you to the people who gave reasonable feedback.

Yes, I try to win in every league I play in, and if that means getting players with high dWar into my lineup at the expense of hitting is the answer then of course I will do that.

The reason I asked about this is mainly about the custom leagues I’m in. I’m in a custom league right now where an owner just won 3 titles in a row (which has never happened before in this league) basically by having dWar at every position, hitting be damned, along with good starting pitchers. I’m also in a couple leagues where I’m dominating in ways I did not before, just by making some lineup adjustments to include more dWar.

Tampa Bay is beating out the Yankees and Red Sox every single season in both of my Best of the Best leagues too, and obviously the pitching is almost even, the Yankees and Sox have way better hitting, so what’s the difference? Tampa’s dWar. Adames at SS with a little over 2 dWar, Zobrist at 2B with a little over 2 dWar, Kiermaier obviously with his 5 dWar, and others at other positions. Tampa has garbage hitters compared to the other NL East teams but they are winning the division every single time now. It’s kinda cool that the Rays have a chance now, but is that really how baseball should work?

I am not arguing to eliminate dWar altogether.

I am not saying I don’t love the site. I donate every year and run two leagues here. I log in 50+ times a day so obviously I love it.

Re: Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

I would agree dwar needs to be adjusted. certainly not a drastic overhaul.

Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

I commented about this before but for a different season, the issue I saw was that say you were a starting pitcher on the St. Louis Cardinals teams that HAD Ozzie and Oquendo, because of their defensive prowess you already have the REAL stats that reflect all the hits they saved, so you might only allow say 6.6 H/9

Now you take that average H/9 that the SIM uses as a Baseline and put Ozzie and Oquendo on your team, and add their DWAR again, you're double dipping, that's the real issue, you can't already get the bonus of having them on defense built in, and then adding it again, it's unfair.

An option could be that DWAR has no effect on pitchers with a yet to be determined H/9 - lower than say (and this is a totally arbitrary number 7H/9) DWAR has no effect. But I don't think the SIM is capable of that.

Re: Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

I think the pitchers H/9 may be his own It is the same if you are playing with a historic roster or a league where you are just using players from a certain season, but the Cards say, are spread out to different teams. Like Orel Hershiser has Ozzie and another 2B. His h/9 are his independent of defense perhaps. I think this is where we need to check DICE. That should represent a pitchers worth apart from D. I could be wrong, just how I interpret the stats.

Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

If the SP was a starter for the St. Louis team his real stats already reflect Ozzie and Oquendo's defense - his H/9 are what he actually accumulated that season - and reflect their defense - if those two IF saved 40 hits during his starts than his H/9 are 40 less than they would have been without their defense - see what I mean?

Re: Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

A league like Best of the Best is gonna have these dWar problems because the owners are all experienced, and we're all trying to pick not only great hitters, but defensive outliers on some of these teams, which is why Tampa can dominate, where in reality they would probably get smoked in real life. Stat manipulation is always going to be a "problem" in a simulation based game. Do I think Kevin Kiermaier is the greatest CF of all time? No. Do I think he's the best CF on PC? Perhaps, yeah.

This has me thinking that maybe rather than changing/messing with dWar, there should be a way to adjust how dWar affects leagues based on the average dWar within the league? Obviously that would require a huge amount of time to implement, but allowing commissioners to affect how dWar affects their league could be a step in the right direction.

Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

SCM, you’re right about that, just like COL hitters can double up if they have a big boost stadium here. But this site has to consider that players move teams, so the dwar has to count for all and the stadiums have to count for all. Made sense in my head, hope I explained it right.

Raider, since I know what league you mean, stats are cleared but I think I remember that team had about 60-70 H saved over 35 games. Yes, his hitting seemed weak but he also had 3 of the top SPs and as you said, defense that saved 2 hits a game. His team had 7 shutouts, but they also scored 5 or more 12 times. So they weren’t completely offensively challenged but had great pitching and defense. His SS and CF saved a hit every 2 games, which seems legit for great defenders. I think they earned that 3 peat and I know you aren’t saying they didn’t. It’s been great since defense was made important correctly (boo team RF), but I still think the bigger issue are created players with too high dwar. Some of that was because it progressed too much, so at least that doesn’t happen anymore.

Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

I did my best to make this make sense... forgive me if some of it reads wrong.
-First of all… this is not complaining. I love the site desire to see it get better so lets stop with those comments in this thread. Everyone on this thread donates and spend way too much time here. Guy you are very much appreciated. We are passionate about your site that is why we post… we care.
-I am going to double down here on what sin city said. This is part of what I brought up a few months back. Post is no longer there. There are too many stats that are being “double dipped” on in the sim that are skewing results. If you understand what those numbers are and how you can benefit from them it creates an unfair sim and essentially loaded dice for those who understand what they are doing.

-Rank double dips on OBP for position a player which creates a misunderstanding of how good an actual player is. (I see your O-war field Guy, I look forward to what you may do there)

-Dwar (“Defensive Wins Above Replacement.” a one-stop number that estimates how much value above replacement level a player brings with his defense.) The number in itself is an estimate based on replacement players. This should be capped by position and there should be caps on how many high dwar players are in a league. You should not have 30 OF with 3+ dwar in a league pool at one time… let alone at first base where that is not even possible. Based on that the baseline of 3 should hold 0 value because 3 dwar is the avg. Fielding percentage is not being given the weight it deserves when it comes to defense. Focus should be there not Dwar. Dwar is a value based on a baseline result of the avg player at that position. The changes that need to be made to make this stat work in the sim proper would be to establish what the baseline is in each league by position, (similar to how we adjust rank to determine who is elite) and remove the OF designation as a primary position. 3+ dwar is most commonly achieved in CF because that player has access to more balls. When teams are able to put 3 OF all with 3+ dwar in play is skews what should be possible and happening in the sim.

-If hits are going to be generated using pitching stats, it would make sense for them to be weighted according to what the league avg is and how far below and or above that pitcher is in comparison to the rest of the league. Then use the dwar calculation after or possibly do a combo of both depending on where the ball is hit. I am sure Guy could come up with a creative way to calculate this that would make sense.

-More depth to determine where a ball is hit based on LR matchups between pitcher and hitter would be nice also so positions like 3b, which should see more balls than what it does in the sim, would see the proper amount because of Right handed batters coming to the plate.

It would be cool but I am pretty sure Guy won’t be dropping that in anytime soon as he does have a full time job elsewhere.

Re: Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

You can't win with bad defenders... If you play with Manny Ramirez, Jose Canseco and Gary Shefield in the outfield, well, you should lose...

Then you have average fielders, they won't make you win or lose with their gloves....

And there are the elite defenders, they steal a hit here and there... without you even notice most of the times.... and they steal you a game here and there also... and do compensate for a hitters accomplishement.... If you combine Mark Belanger with Brooks Robinson... well it gives you a great pitching staff with nothing going by on that side of the field....

How many hits could Ozzie Smith save in a season.... without also considering how smoothly a Double play ball could be turned in his presence. Dwar is still quite a speculative stats line for me...

after all +3 defensive war is as good as +3 Offensive war...

Re: Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

I don't want to drop dwar. I just don't want to have it be the deciding factor. Just an equal player. Isn't that what DICE tells us? Or am I off base. If a pitchers H/9 are determined by the defense he had or didn't during his career. Does DICE account for this? Just asking.

Re: Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

Interesting takes on this. I don't think dWar has to be adjusted much if at all for auto leagues or custom leagues that use real players. Sounds like the biggest issue is fictional players where dWar is off the charts compared to some other stat categories.

But saying it's not realistic to have 3 really good dWar OFs on your team at once, or elite dWAR middle infielders at the same time doesn't really make sense to me. That's the whole point of PC, isn't it? To see "what if?" Not sure how it differs from a team that puts Babe Ruth, Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds in the OF, and adds in McGwire on 1B. Not very realistic compared to historical teams, but pretty fun to see what they could all do together on the same team.

The main thing is, I think, that defense is getting a bad rap simply because less owners take advantage of it. That's not the SIM's fault, it's just the reality of how a lot of people watch baseball - offense captures the imagination so most owners are going to pick Bonds and Sosa for their teams before they pick Simmons or the Wiz. I think it makes total sense that owners who find a good balance between offense, defense and pitching are going to win more often than those who just stack their teams with high HR, high OPS players and don't pay as much attention to defense.

Other than putting some parameters on dWar in the fictional players leagues, I don't think I'd change a thing.
Just my two cents.

Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

I would like the auto league to stay as is. Pitchers WHIP will be higher because they are facing better hitters, Hitters batting avg, slugging, etc will be lower because of the quality of pitching they face.

The one thing that should not be different is the defense. Just like they say in football, defense travels.

Does Ozzie Smith not make the defensive play because Barry Bonds hit the ball instead of Mario Mendoza, most likely he will make the play, regardless of the hitter.

Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

"+3 defensive WAR is the same as +3 offensive WAR"

That sums up the issue wonderfully, and highlights people's biases.

As far as "DWAR stacking," you can't field low rank players at every position and win, even with elite pitching. Just doesn't happen. Runs have to come from somewhere. Yeah, you can slot in that 0 rank Ozzie Smith in an ATG league, but you better have some bashers elsewhere in the lineup.

"If you understand what those numbers are and how you can benefit from them it creates an unfair sim and essentially loaded dice for those who understand what they are doing."

Well....yeah?

The same thing could be said for every game ever created: "That Tekken 7 player is playing with loaded dice because he understands the nuances of the game!"

Regarding "double dipping," I see no way to untangle the stats that Pennant Chase uses. I mean, how far down the rabbit hole do you want to go? People are focusing on DWAR and pitching, but what about players who were on stacked lineups? Their batting stats benefited because they had protection in the lineup. Should they be penalized because they batted ahead of Albert Belle, so they were "double dipping"?

Moving back to pitching, do we want to see an adjustment that improves an already stellar pitcher, i.e. they had a horrible defense behind them, yet they put up 6.0 H/9? What happens, Guy creates a formula that brings them down to 4.3 H/9, or whatever? For a starting pitcher?

Let's keep things simple.

And there's too much focus on "making it realistic." That's fine for custom leagues, but auto leagues are meant to be arcade-like.

Re: Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

Wahh, wahh, wahh. just quit complaining and enjoy this game.if you dont like it quit. oh my god this pretend game is unfair with its dwar blahh blahh blahh.lighten up francis!!!!

Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

sorry, but see my previous post earlier when i was 10 i was a foot taller than every kid in 4th grade. i had adultsiwanting to fight me. i didnt understand why.they thought i was older. anyway i dominated basketball and baseball by junior high everyone caught up to me and by high school i was always cut from the teams.this is a computer sim and its free why complain? life is like that you dont always win and everything doesnt go your way

Re: Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

We obviously need to score runs to win, but there so much defensive liabilities you can carry on a baseball team...

Balance is everything...

There is ton of great hitters in there that combines good defense with offense, in any case, I would elect a slightly lower offensive player if the defense is way better...

As for 8 th and 9th hitters... I would rather have gold glovers in there... since the offense would be generated from the other part of the lineup...

Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

First off, observations are not whining, there's a big difference between the two, second, the problem I see is how DWAR is handled, it strictly turns an out into a hit, or hit into an out, that's just not realistic.

DWAR should not have a ground ball to SS that would have been a hit, get turned into a DP. Take the hit away, ok, but turn 2? That's not good, and it happens a lot.

In Baseball if you make such a great fielding play that you rob a hit, you usually cut down the lead runner, which is huge, even, getting a glove on a ball you should not have, which prevents the lead runner from going 1st to 3B or not scoring, likewise in the outfield, you stop a ball from getting past everyone and turn what should have been extra base into a single.

Just one guys take, but its the narrow guidelines that seem to need tweaking, because not all great defensive eliminates a hit.

Re: Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

The only awnser I can have, is by being a little bit nostalgic...and relate to old strat-o-matic board game....

groundball ss (X)...
If you spin the dice... well Ozzie Smith turns everything into a double play with a famous grounball(A)... others would allowed base hits, fielders choice,etc...


Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

dwar totals are based on the pool of players that the other players are matched up against. it has to have some type of adjustment according to the pool the player is dropped in with.

4 dwar SS Ozzie Smith is not a 4 dwar value in a ATG league because the replacement value is being determined my the dwar he established in a singular season against players that he was not playing against when that number was established so it needs to be modified.

its all about the player pool. look at what the definition of dwar is I posted it above. its based on the pool of players you could be replaced by. 4 dwar ozzie smith exists because there was no Omar Vizquel or John Valentin or any other great dwar SS you can think of from history. It should be taken account for in all leagues custom and auto leagues. it would bring credibility to the stat and more importantly balance.

if your dwar values are all supercharged (which they are currently), the value you get from defense vs offense is dwarfed. I see all of you posting about balance... there is no balance if defense always wins regardless of what that player can produce offensively.

Re: Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

I think it all averages out in the long run. Don't forget that you have a higher number of elite , HOF batters filling PC line-up cards that will have exponentially more quality at bats against the stronger infield/outfields being implemented. It seems clear to me that such batting orders will neutralize the advantage that the 4+ DWAR players are having on the game.

Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

but it won't avg out... that is why this thread is here. If you sit down and do the math behind this because it is a giant probability calculator it will not go in the favor of the offense enough times to balance this out.

Re: Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

It IS balanced out though. Maybe not exactly the way you’d like, but the leagues I’m in, the average runs per game, HR numbers, ERA, it’s all so close to real life that it feels like real baseball. No? And in any given game, even with a stacked dWar lineup, which I have quite a few of, I’ll only average 1 or 2 robbed hits per game, which is exactly what would happen in real life if you had Ozzie and Andruw and Griffey and Brett all on the same team. In fact, sometimes it feels like there would be even more of those plays in real life than there is in the SIM.

Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

This is an awesome thread. And you all know I always encourage this type of feedback. I think all points are valid. My thoughts:

1. Double dipping happens everywhere. Someone mentioned lineup protection which is a great point. To keep the game simple there’s not much I want to start doing in regards to double dipping.

2. For sure the way the sim is using dwar is not what dwar was intended for. But as can be seen by this thread it has created a strategy that was never part of the game before, even when aggregated range factor was the stat used.

3. I’ve seen teams dominate ATG auto leagues simply because they loaded up on defense. Yes you still need offense but it’s not hard to draft offense. So these teams with mediocre pitching dominate. Now kudos to them, but I don’t really love that aspect. That’s why I feel a slight tweak is probably needed for the really high dwar players. And as people mentioned custom leagues suffer because they have so many of these players.

4. I agree with Gus, in terms of the number of hits taken away it doesn’t usually feel unrealistic, but there are times with the top players it does. Like when they rob 4 hits a game.

5. I think I have to really analyze this and think about what tweak if any needs to be made. I could make it “adjustable” for custom leagues I just fear that might confuse people as they jump from league to league with commissioners doing things differently

Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

i agree dwar can be an issue and i was in a league were dwar was so high on teams that batting averages plummeted
and team batting averages were in the 220s..
commissioner finally adjusted dwars on players to reduce the effect.
but commissioners can adjust dwars on players as the make them so that their league doesnt have ridicules dwars
and the effect is thus reduced to a manner that is livable

Re: Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

In auto leagues, things are good IMO.

There are times I stack my lineup with high Dwar guys and win. There are times where I only have a few elite defenders and win. But neither are automatic. It is all about balance and it makes the guys that are elite defenders but also All-Star hitters hugely valuable. Just like in real life. It also allows poor hitters still impact the game like Mark Belanger (just like real life).

I was just in a 2010 auto league where one guys had Simmons, Machado, Carlos Gonzalez, and about 3 other stud defenders. His entire draft strategy was based on collecting the elite defenders. He led the league in hits saved.

He also lost 86 games.

His lineup had no firepower and his rotation was not that amazing. So even if he robbed 3 hits a game, you could still beat him because you only needed a couple runs.

He implemented basically the same strategy this past draft it will probably be about the same result.

Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

Guy, glad you like the thread and thank you for the feedback. A suggestion that I would make for you to consider, not sure if it is possible or not, is to halve the dWar of LF and RF in the sim itself, making them a little less likely to save hits. So if someone plays an actual high dWar CF at LF or RF, they aren’t getting as much of a bonus or likelihood of saving hits as they would playing the CF position. It also helps shield the low dWar guys in LF/RF, they would have less negative plays. This is exactly what happens in real baseball, when you put a great center fielder out there and put Manny Ramirez in right field. The same could be done at 1B. Just a thought. The numbers would only be halved during the actual sim. Fielding % of course still matters.

I agree with the gist of what people are saying, you can’t win with all hitting and no defense and you can’t win with all defense and no hitting. I’m not talking about that though with the original post. I’m talking about when I have a team with strong pitching, great fielding, and great hitting, with great dWar at SS and CF and average everywhere else, and other teams that have dWar at EVERY position, similar pitching, but significantly worse hitting, and the other team is the one winning more games and winning titles. It’s about balance, that’s all.

Re: Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

two suggestions would be:
1. actually designate players in LF, CF, RF if possible and make OF a secondary position. I think that would be closer to how the adjustment was made to avoid 1b taking over the infield back in the day.
2. add a way for us to designate what he baseline is for avg dwar is for each position in the league so players above and below that mark perform according. similar to what we do with rank currently.

Re: dWar is the new Range Factor?

I think that is currently the case though. Anecdotally, there simply aren't hits saved in the corner OF and IF positions as the ones up the middle. Over the course of an entire season, my CF saved about 2.5-3 times the hits as the LF. They both had about the same dWAR.

One thing I have noticed is that I don't think positive dWAR players give up hits, and vice versa? One possible suggestion is to change it so that the positive dWAR players end up net positive, but they can still give up hits.

Furthermore, I don't think you can survive in an autoleague that's more than a season just by drafting defense. There's simply too much offense to make it work.

Finally, there was an argument upthread about how defense also factors in first-to-third, etc. I don't think it should make a difference where the defensive value comes from as long as it approximates the player's actual dWAR, and the other scenarios may be too hard to code.