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Specific players performance dropping


Specific players performance dropping

In best of 1990's league

Ken Caminiti was a solid fixture at 3B in the sim...
He could handle any 4th or 5th spot in the lineup.
Along with Matt Williams and Chipper Jones, he was the best 3B available.

History in league, over approx 11 season ( OVER 6000 AB)
avg .261, OBP 330, SLG. .507, OPS .837

But now in recent leagues (over 10 full seasons) (OVER 5700 AB) , when clicking on accross leagues
avg .234, OBP .301, SLG .424, OPS .725.

The guy who use to be a solid performer, is now pretty ordinary... with a huge drop of .100 in OPS...

pretty sure there is couple of players who have been severly punish by some sort of stats adjustment....


https://www.pennantchase.com/lgPlay..

Re: Specific players performance droppi

I had the same thing with Joe Shlabotnik ,used to be an all star now its like he never even existed. But to be serious is it realistic that a major league team would go 68 games without hitting a triple, not likely but thats how long a streak the mets had which was the longest since 1902 !! the point is this sim doesnt care if your ken camaniti or joe shlabotnik wh o only existed on the comic page, its all about numbers the sim doesnt see a player and think , oh this guy won an mvp so he should do good but this other guy hit his girlfriend or got caught using female hormones (manny r ) and he should suffer. Things happen , unless they dont. They help you win, unless they dont, no math theory needed. sorry if i offende any manny fans or was it sammy who got caught with female hormones, i know one thing sammy looks almost unreckognizable now.

Re: Re: Specific players performance dr

It's happened across the board due to this: Use Pitcher's HR Allowed Stats. If you go to your league home and scroll down, it's probably been checked if it's an auto league. Power hitters are being seriously effected.

- The Sheik

Re: Specific players performance dr

It's weird that his average and OBP have also dropped so drastically

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From what what I thought, Pitchers Homers allowed should NOT effect BA - the Home Run would become another extra base hit, not take away a hit -so average should not be nerfed

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One thing to consider- even if the HR becomes another type of hit, that type of hit now has a chance to be robbed by high dWar players. I don't think (just a guess) that HR are robbed by dWar. So, big HR hitters will lose some hits to pitcher HR allowed, especially as defensive rank has resulted in much more value being placed on dwar by the general player than in the past.

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For most of the players, I've seen a small dropped in OPS (-20 / -30 or so)... since tweaks were made...

I've seen couple of others seriously affected... Fred McGriff per instance... Javy Lopez in best of 2000 also. have seen their stats sink...

Good OBP and GOOD batting AVG hitters were helped by the changes...

I also think a bunch of players became less dependable that they were...
I now frequently pass on players I would normally jump on... as their usually above average stats have plunge and now been match by other players.

Some sluggers, I would normally sneak in the 8th or 9th spot, have seen their HR numbers drop... and they lost their only asset or upside they had vs other players....

This as been making a bunch of players look way more generic than anything else with very similar stats line for most of them now...

But, it is quite obvious that there is something in Caminiti stats line ( who are pretty solid by the way) that made his stats literally plunge since tweaks were made....... what is it??? I don't know..

I think it could be the players with a combination of approx 1.000 OPS, .390 and .410 OBP and a .315 to .325 batting average that were affected the most...

the .430 OBP, 340 AVG and 1000 OPS + have kept their heads above water...

Caminiti and some others wen't from cleanup hitters, to now easily replaceable 6th or 7th hitter at best in a lineup...

sample size is big enough to eliminate luck, or any defensive or ballpark tendencies... a drop of more than .100 ops is huge... he wen't from a 40 hr hitter, to a 25 HR with a lower batting avg...

as for the peanut fan up there.... I prefer raising the white flag and stay polite...

for your help: they were some tweaks made to the gameplay couple months ago, involving power numbers / hr allowed by pitchers, if I am not mistaking, and some players were affected by them... I figure it would be good to bring some example, so changes can be monitored and we can all see what are the consequences of those changes... Since most of the changes or madem and their results are rarely bring to anybody's attention.. this can help people adapt to the game as it always keep evolving....




Re: Specific players performance dr

don't think that the HR being turned into another type of hit should allow it to be taken away by DWar- If it is that's crap, you were supposed to get a HR and instead get an out? I do admit that there were way too many HR's especially with Big Boost parks but I don't think the intent of HR's allowed was supposed to add the chance of the hit being taken away.

Dwar is way too powerful at any rate - whatever DWar a pitcher got the advantage of is already baked into his H/9 - anything adding to it is overkill and hurts BA - If a SP had Jose Oquendo and Ozzie Smith in his IF and then gets them both again in PC it's doubling down

That's your entire Offense problem right there

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Sin- You are 100% correct that pitchers who had good D behind them IRL are double dipping when they get good D put behind them in the sim.

BUT, there are only two ways to correct this problem-

1) make defense not matter in the sim. This is a terrible solution as it misvalues players (Ozzie Smith was actually valuable despite not being a great hitter), and takes away from the game. One of the great things about PC, in my opinion, is that defense really matters.

or

2) find a way to take defense out of the pitcher stats. Generally, that moves away from Guy's desire to operate only with raw stats.

A similar problem is true of HR hitters who played in hitter friendly parks. That effect is baked into their stats. If they go into a Big Boost park, they are double dipping.

Now, there IS a way you could take defense out of the pitchers stats while only using widely available raw stats: use only the components of FIP

So, a pitcher's strikeouts rate, walk rate, and HR rate all determine whether the ball is put into play or not. Once in play, only the defense and the hitter stats play into determining the outcome of the ball in play. If the ball is not in play, the pitcher and the hitter's stats both determine if it is a walk, K, or HR.

This would solve the problem of double dipping on defense, but it would also actually make defense MORE important. And the stats would match the pitcher's actual stats less than they do now. Sabermetrically this may be more accurate, but I wonder if it would hurt the enjoyment of the sim. People already complain that X star hitter hit .260 with 30 HR in ATG instead of his actual .350 with 45 HR, totally not accounting for the fact that the hitter isn't facing Jose Lima, but a steady diet of Koufax, Pedro, Big Train, etc.

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wait a minute- defensive stats are built into a pitchers numbers....on the team they played with that lineup. but we are talking about taking that pitcher off that team and plucking him down on a new team with different players/defenders. so its double dipping to SOME degree but really its different than that. its using the new defensive alignment along with the stats the pitcher had.

that being said there IS a way to take the defense a pitcher had OUT of his stats- its called FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and it accounts for the pitchers contributions to his performance and NOT his fielders. if the sim would use something like that, and couple that with the dwar of the players in the game then that would be a much better representation of how said pitcher would pitch with the new PC created lineup and defense behind him

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oh ffs bonds beat me to it. i didnt read all the way down his post before posting lol.

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The way the series of logic works, I do not believe a HR flip can be robbed by dwar, so you don't have to worry about that.

But, thanks for calling this out, I can definitely take a look and see if there's some unintended consequence happening here as it relates to certain players.

Re: Specific players performance dr

I agree that Defense should matter in the SIM - and while I don't have a good suggestion of how exactly to bring it about, the current set up has some real drawbacks.

I used to play a game called Statis Pro Baseball years ago that had cards you flipped with random numbers to determine the result of each play, usually the 1st card would determine if the result came off the Pitchers card ( good for the Pitcher) or the Batters card ( good for the Batter) but even if the results were on the pitchers card he could surrender a hit, and likewise just because it was on the batters card did not insure a hit.

However sometimes the card would reveal a " Z" this was an unusual play and you would have to determine whether it was a Fielding play, Injury, or Just an unusual play - such as batter ejected for arguing balls and Strikes.

If it was a fielding play than it might be " Ball smashed towards SS and 3B - is SS is Clutch D 3 or Higher he makes a diving catch - if not line drive single, runners advance 1 base. In these instances an Ozzie Smith got his props and probably 85% of the unusual plays were fielding plays -Probably impossible to incorporate such a system, but it was enjoyable - on the other side a less than X fielder could misplay a ball

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The system is not much different than what you described. When a "Z" card potentially steals (or in some cases allows) a hit, you've basically stolen an opportunity from the hitter and pitcher, and are therefore double-dipping on their stats.

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Well my example was pretty close but a CD fielder might not prevent a hit but get a glove on it keeping it in the IF and not allowing a run to score too -a superior fielder might turn a Double Play, where a lesser Fielder only got 1 out there were many variables- a fielding play could also be “ ball hit to the gap LF and CF collide, baseball rolls to wall, Inside the park HR, LF is injured - really crazy stuff

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Ha, nice, yeah those are pretty cool ideas.

Re: Specific players performance droppi

Is it really a good thing to take a pitcher's real life defense out of the sim? There are many elite pitchers who made a living from inducing weak contact even if they didn't rack up strikeouts much more than the average pitcher. If we're emphasizing FIP in the sim, we are ignoring that not all contact is created equal.

Mariano Rivera certainly struck out his share of batters, but he didn't have to do so at an elite level because of his cutter. Unless we can also account for the type of contact pitcher's gave up we're never going to get the most accurate sim.

Unfortunately the statistical database does not exist to do this. There have been many great suggestions made, but I just ask that we remember the sinkerballers.

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Bob Tewksbury.Not a great pitcher but he got 'em out .No free passes,good control ,assorted pitches,screwed up hitters timing.All kinds of little stuff nobody notices

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Generally, pitchers have almost no control over batting average on balls in play. It is true that a few pitchers in history seemed to get weaker contact, but 95% of the time the outcome of a ball in play is luck + defensive skill behind him.

Given that, the current sim where H/9 are really important is MUCH less accurate than a sim where FIP matters and once a ball is in play it is the hitter’s skill and the defense’s skill that determines outcome.

Re: Specific players performance dr

Here's a thought, there is no argument that DWar plays saved by a pitcher is baked into their H/9 - DWar can happen on any hit, perhaps a pitcher with low H/9 gets a lower % of chances for DWAr to rob a hit?

The current system allows every hit to be subject to DWar, what if there was a difference in percentage based on H/9?

A pitcher with a H/9 of say 6 h/9 or less only gets a chance for a robbed hit every 4 hits, a pitcher with 7/9 gets a chance every 3 hits, 8/9 every 2 hits 9/h every hit?

Re: Re: Specific players performance dr

FIP is generally used to compare against ERA but we don’t use ERA. FIP is also used to determine future performance, but on PC we don’t care about future performance or even past performance, we just care about what the pitcher did that year. So when you think about H/9, if a pitcher excelled that season, he excelled that season. Maybe some of it was luck. Maybe it wasn’t. And of course there will be guys who always out perform their FIP.

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A ball in play is any fair ball that is not a HR. There have been studies on the issue and they consistently find that there is almost no correlation between a pitcher’s BABIP (batting average on balls in play) from one year to the next.

An example, here are Pedro Martinez BABIP during his epic 1997-2002 run:
1997: .263
1998: .272
1999: .325
2000: .237
2001: .310
2002: .274

What made Pedro great wasn’t some ability to induce weak contact, but the fact that he made it so hard to make contact.

The most famous study on this was done by Voros McCracken and led to the development of FIP. It is why Fangraphs WAR doesn’t use runs allowed but FIP.

All that said, to say pitchers have no effect is also wrong. Other studies suggest knuckle ball guys in particular do seem to induce soft contact. But for the vast majority of pitchers it is a combination of hitter skill, luck, and their defense. The best thing a pitcher can do is miss bats.

Re: Specific players performance dr

First, let me say I think I prefer the straight forward way PC is now with H/9

If you wanted the sim to reflect the Sabermetric findings regarding the outcome of balls in play, however, you could do something like this:

The first thing the sim determines in a PA is whether the batter put the ball in play. This could be determined via a combination of the pitcher’s K, BB, and HR rate (how often that pitcher’s results were not balls in play) and the hitter’s K, BB, and HR rates. Pitcher’s like Nolan Ryan are going to have less balls in play than pitchers like John Tudor.

If the ball is not in play, determine whether it is a BB, K, or HR using the pitcher and hitter stats.

If the ball is in play, then the pitcher’s stats no longer figure into the outcome. Now the outcome is determined by the hitter’s stats (BABIP and % of hits that are 1B, 2B, 3B) and the defense’s stats.

Under this system, low K pitchers could do well if you put a great D behind them, but would get crushed with a bad D.

High K pitchers could do ok with less D as less balls would be in play. High K pitchers become super valuable (as they are IRL).

Re: Specific players performance dr

Whoops I hit delete on one of my last posts…

Anyway yes that makes sense but like you said in a previous post I think this would drive folks nuts in terms of enjoying the sim. We basically consider 2000 Pedros best season to sim but his FIP was lower in other seasons. So maybe he was just “luckier” in 2000. Or maybe he was just better but I suppose sabermetrics folks would say he wasn’t. Regardless, we don’t care about past or future.

I get the concept that this would prevent the double dipping on the defensive side, but I think at the expense of the stats and results making any sense for the non saber inclined.

Re: Specific players performance droppi

Totally agree, Guy.

And like I said in a previous post, I think the value the sim gives to defense currently is really great and far outweighs any double dipping

Re: Specific players performance droppi

Yeah that’s an interesting way to break it down. I wonder how that would play out for past eras where strikeouts weren’t as prevalent or even important. Or go way back to deadball where you didn’t even have home runs.

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It’s a good question. It is also where a sim built around it would produce results people didn’t like. I’m imaging some terrible guy from the 1920s who didn’t strike anyone out, but also didn’t walk too many or give up a lot of HR (because other than Ruth, there weren’t a lot of HR yet). Put him on a team with Frisch, Ozzie, Brooks Robinson, and 96 Griffey in CF and he wins the Cy Young.

Maybe that’s “correct”, but it’s hard to accept. People already have trouble accepting Cobb hitting only .310 even though he’s facing all Hall of Famers in their best season.

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Right... that is definitely something that makes changes a challenge as well, thinking realism for deadball all the way up to modern times.. not always easy!

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I don't think they can be one game;they are two entirely different games like college and pro sports

Re: Specific players performance droppi

I think I should have used a better phrasing than weak contact. While BABIP from year to year may be entirely random, the type of batted balls a pitcher allows is at least partially determined by the pitcher themselves.

When I say this I’m thinking about guys like Zack Britton. He has struck guys out at a slightly below league average rate but he induced ground balls on almost 66% of balls in play. While the BABIP on those grounders may vary, we know that grounders are significantly less dangerous to a pitcher than line drives. If we were to start simming such that we only looked at whether the pitcher allows a HR, BB, or K we’re not getting the full picture. Ideally we would also consider a pitchers batted ball ratios, but this is what I’m referring to when I say the complete database doesn’t exist.

I believe H/9 and oOBP at least partially allow for these different types of contact though they are certainly not perfect.

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Ah! You are 100% correct that pitchers show a repeatable characteristic of generating ground balls or fly balls. But fly balls are only better for the hitter because of HR. Once you remove those and count just balls in play, there isn’t a ton of difference between a fly all and ground ball pitcher

Now, it would be cool to have those stats for the purpose of defensive effect. Flyball pitcher’s would benefit more from great OF and less from great infield D. That would introduce fun and realistic strategy.

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I favor the ground ball pitchers over fly ball. There is always the chance of a sac hit or error whereas the ground ball is probably weak contact and an easy out . Of course,infielders make more errors because of line drives and tough plays

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Say one is in a Ruthian era league. There are plenty of big hitters, but also pitchers with literally 0 HR over more than 180 IP. There are a lot of1s, 2s and 3s, a lot of them ranked from about 50-65, with decent stats overall.
If an owner stocks up on very low HR pitchers in eras that have them, what should s/he expect in terms of HR results? Overall pitching results?
Looking at results in one league, I see a dropoff in homers for some players in recent years, but I don't know when the change took effect, and some of the pitchers have no histories.

Re: Specific players performance dr

Looking at Kevin Appier best of 1990's history.

he is one who can benificiate from the HR allowed by pitchers he only has 8 hr allowed in 238 inning pitched in the season used.


Clearly, he wen't from allowing a very steady, year in and year out 30 hr's a year. To a massive drop of allowing 17 and now 13 hrs in is last 2 seasons. Almost for the same amount of innings pitched...

https://www.pennantchase.com/lgPlay..
And even a pitchers who allows a lot of HR. Mark Langston who allowed 30hrs with his season used, HR numbers allowed per season are dropping a bit... from 30 to 35 to low 20's


https://www.pennantchase.com/lgPlay..


Re: Re: Specific players performance dr

So it wasn't answered but if a HR is turned into another hit due to the Pitchers Home runs allowed being low, can that Hit then be robbed?

If so, then I would never use that option in any League I was in willingly - yes HR's can be robbed now by DWar - and should be once in a while, but I will bet that in the course of an entire MLB Season there are not more than 25 HR's robbed - anyone else want to estimate? and that's in like 2400 games

Re: Specific players performance dr

It's probably a double,maybe a ground rule double or some other hit. I would say it's hard to field ,almost went out,away from everybody and anybody trying to field it might well get an error on the play for touching it. If it is caught and thrown,no matter how good the guys arm is,he's likely to get an error as well I wouldn't worry about it at all,even if it's Ozzie Smith trying to make the play

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It was answered. No.

Re: Specific players performance dr

thanks Guy, I didn't think a HR changed to something else could be taken away and thought that had been answered a while ago, but in one of the responses in this thread it was stated that that hit COULD be taken away and I MISSED that you answered it already, I apologize!!

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It's a long thread, easy to miss. :)

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SCM I loved Statis Pro! In my mind, better than Strat-O-Matic

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Yes - Both the Baseball and Basketball Versions were really playable - Baseball by far had the better "Z" or Oddity cards though - You could have rain Delays and have to replace your Starting Pitchers, ejections, Injuries, and the best part about injuries is that the length of your injury could be affected by the number of games you played in your stats- it didn't have to be but Could, you could lose some players for the Season.

I remember playing a game with my buddy and he had the Phillies, after 3 innings I was down like 11-0 and Mike Schmidt had already hit 2 HR's and driven in 6 runs - top of the 4th, he loads the bases and up steps Mike Schmidt who promptly hits a Grand Slam - 10 RBI and 3 Hr's in the 4th Inning, - Next guy up, "Z" Card - which says "Skies open up Pouring Rain plus Lightning- For fan safety, game is called" - so those stats are all erased because it wasn't a legal game.

My buddy was SO pissed - Great stuff!!