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Playoff Games


Playoff Games

Are there any factors in playoff games (like it being game 7) that would induce extra mistakes a la a pressure error?

In game 7 recently my team had 2 errors in the first inning from players who averaged 1 error every 30 games played...my SP had TWO WP's in which one WP every 5-6 starts and my 1b had a -1 D which occurs 1 in every 8-9 games.

This all occurred within 4 innings and I've had many similar playoff experiences where the math feels a few derivatives from the mean

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You probably already know the answer, but just to confirm, no, the sim doesn’t know the importance of the game, only the stats.

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I don’t know Yankee. Maybe not in game 7’s, but it sure seems like things get crazy in the 9th.

I’m sure I’ve heard Guy say no, but I am a non-believer. Sorry Guy.

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If you guys think I have the time, or desire, to write code that apparently jacks up errors, wild pitches and dwar hits at some random time like the 9th inning or the playoffs or whatever, then you definitely don’t know how little time I have on my hands. :)

And it’s not only time, but philosophically I don’t like the idea of artificially messing with the odds of things happening. Let the random numbers do the work.

I think the thing is, all those things get magnified in those situations. When a crazy inning or game happens in the third inning of Day 22 on the season, nobody notices or cares.

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Thank you Guy , once again you are spot on . Just enjoy this great game , or as guy said , put in the time and make your own. You can't conceive of every possible out come and I will prove it to you. I started watching baseball in 1974 when i was 7. I have seen a lot of wierd plays but last week I saw something for the first time even tho im sure its happened b4 its the 1st I saw it. The sea m's were playing Toronto and there were 2 outs and seattles batter hit an easy comebacker to the mound. Torontos pitcher easily fielded it and threw it to vladdy at 1st for the 3rd out except that the ball went staight threw vladis webbing into right field starting a mariner rally and leading to a win that contibuted to a sreak that is now at 13. The pitcher and the infield started walking off the field but then that happened How would you program that in ?. Thats baseball , enjoy the game here or make a better one.

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I don't think anyone was overtly complaining here, I just wanted to make sure the speculation got answered.

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If Guy had some more time, I would definitely want that faulty webbing play programmed in, even if it was only 1 time every 20 million plays. Same with “ball hits seagull”, “hidden ball trick”, “infield pop up becomes home run due to hurricane”, “hit by pitch, player charges mound, benches clear, ten ejections for each team”, among others. Would be great fun to watch for those and see who gets one once in a while. 😁

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You would like the book, "Unverisal Baseball Association, Inc., J. Henry Waugh, Proprietor," in which the author creates his own cards and dice-based simulation of MLB in the pre-computer era.

The types of events you're describing happen, in accordance to actual probabilities, in the "Extremely Rare Events" card.

To be clear, I'm talking about a fictional book (a novel), not an actual sim.

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That’s one of my all time favorite books

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Yeah. Was actually playing around Mr. Bubbles. Should have put a winky face there or something. Like Yankee said, this has been addressed several times. I should just stop posting on the boards. ;)

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@gbacci “And it’s not only time, but philosophically I don’t like the idea of artificially messing with the odds of things happening. Let the random numbers do the work. ”

Well that’s not entirely true as fire and slump buster are here

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Fire and Slump Bust do not run counter to randomness.

The sim doesn't change in the playoffs is the point gbacci emphasized. Which, surely, you understand?

Your half-cocked campaign against slump bust and fire makes you the Don Quixote of PC, seeking out the purity of the stats. The difference between your situation and most other absurdly idealistic caterwaulers is that you have the tools at your fingertips to create a league that does not allow slump bust or fire. Go for it. See how many line-up to play it. My bet is: If you build it, they will not come.

You have the tools, mc. You know it. The rest of us know it. Use the tools to go forth and conquer without slump bust or fire, then maybe stop your negative publicity campaign against two key features that keep the game interesting.

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High vocabulary does not necessarily mean you understand lol. Anyway, just pointing out if gbacci meant that philosophically he wanted the numbers to speak for themselves then that’s not exactly true. Where did you find a fault in that argument?

Regarding any crusades or whatever nonsense you blabbered about after that I’m not sure what you are talking about. I do like the concept tho, good idea to make such a league. I think tommmyboy had one like that waaaay back a bunch of years ago and there were quite a few top GMs there iirc

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@Ragingsol: Isn’t fire a stat in PC? So the stats do speak for themselves. Not arguing with you, I just could address the other guy.

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I was going to address on fire and slump bust in my original comment because I knew someone would call that as counter to the philosophy.

I don't know if "purity of stats" was quite the point, but rather overriding the work of random numbers during the sim. Fire and Buster are just stat boosts, which happen before the sim starts, and which are also fully transparent That's a different thing, IMO, than telling the game "start jacking up homers now because XYZ".

I still think PC is a pretty great place for purity of stats too. So many games don't use the stats, or use them to create random "ratings" behind the scenes. As mentioned Fire and Buster add an element of gamification, management, etc. without I think really messing with the overall premise. And, as mentioned, private leagues don't have to use either of those.

If you're running a replay league, or one of those career-stats leagues, it probably makes a lot of sense to turn off fire and buster. I know some leagues that do that. These features came very early in PC's existence because people didn't really enjoy watching Babe Ruth hit .220 in an ATG league and being able to slump bust him made it a more enjoyable experience. The purity of the stats says of course Babe Ruth might have some awful seasons when facing the absolute best pitchers ever, but sometimes that's just not very fun.

What I've always been committed to is exposing as much as possible and also never artificially changing the odds of something happening in the sim - people have accused the sim of streak codes, pressure codes, and on and on, and THAT is the stuff I am saying I am philosophically against.

I'm also pro stat purity, but it's not simple when you've got so many leagues using players across wide eras, and also when you've got so many leagues that essentially have the best of the best.

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Thank you gbacci for addressing my point. I’ve made this point in other areas and the usual response is pretty much what you saw- comments like “just don’t use it if you don’t like it” or “fire is a stat too” which at best don’t address the point and at worst totally miss the point. I can see what you are saying and can see a place for it based on your premise. I still see a strong case for a true “purity of stats” argument, but I see your point too. Thanks!

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Just don’t use it if you don’t like, exactly addresses the point. If you want purity of stats, make fire 0 and turn slumpbust off. Simple. Done. Try it in your league where you get mad if you can’t put a SP on slumpbust before the tourney starts.

“And it’s not only time, but philosophically I don’t like the idea of artificially messing with the odds of things happening. Let the random numbers do the work.” Pretty sure Guy didn’t say anything about purity of stats. He said let the random numbers do the work. Like Sol said, fire doesn’t run counter to that.

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I think fire as a concept is pretty great. In fact, in autoleagues, where the hitters generally have fires below or around 10, and the pitchers only get to 20 if they're really good, it works well.

The problem is in custom leagues, fire counts get higher, which leads to every game having someone on fire, or a higher likelihood of someone on fire making the difference, which really highlights the point that this sim is just a bunch of dice rolls, no matter how much we try to pretend that it isn't. And the pitcher fire showing up now further extenuates that point.

Like yes, we all have to work within the same constraints, but it's how we feel about what happens in the sim that lends itself to our enjoyments. And when it seems like a ton of GWRBI are guys on fire, or you basically need an SP to have a fire start to succeed, it does feel a little depressing.

So I'm not really taking a side here, I'm just imploring custom league commissioners to watch the fire levels and make sure they don't get too out of hand.

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The slight vomit taste in my mouth is my surest tell that I've read an mc dodge.

“And it’s not only time, but philosophically I don’t like the idea of artificially messing with the odds of things happening. Let the random numbers do the work. ”

Your point in highlighting the sentence was either that gbacci could have spent three follow-up paragraphs qualifying the "artificially messing with the odds" statement so as to not allow any room for misinterpretation, or your point was "mcvn4 does not really like slump bust and fire".

After you sprinkle your fire/sb opinion fourteen different ways in fourteen different places for fourteen straight weeks (getting negligible support from any other PC'er), it is gross that you play the innocent.

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You sure as hell were talking about me. That’s good enough for me.

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I do agree with that Tennis. Maybe fire is too high in some leagues. But let me ask you, how do you feel about exploits? Like yanking every starter early to basically only use an elite bullpen? Or getting every player with the highest dWAR with little regard to offense?

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Not sure why so much hate from the 2 of you but anyway yes I’ve mentioned it in 2-3 leagues and regarding support I’ve definitely seen some? Including in this board. Not sure why an opinion I mention creates such a tense reaction from others. But then again, we do live in the generation of “if you don’t agree with me then I hate you” so I guess there’s that.

Not playing innocent and not playing guilty, just putting an opinion out that gbacci himself said he knew was coming, and tennis elegantly worded it as well. But I guess if it makes you feel good to throw more vitriol out there then go ahead.

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My point isn’t to pick. My point is that fire is there and we use it. You would be stupid not to. Just like 10 speeds stealing 200 bases a year. Or a good defensive guy saving 100 hits a season. 9 speeds and higher surprise bunting their way to a .400 BA. If you lower fire generally as whole for a league, and did that by itself, you still have many exploits in the league. And fire is the least concerning this of all of them in my opinion.

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I’m pretty sure Mcvn and Htennis are the same person now. Can you check that out Guy?

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All of those “exploits” you mentioned are based on stats that the player has accumulated in real life. A GM using those and leveraging them to gain maximum advantage of them is again, using the players stats that they themselves accrued. Fire is a stat that was added on top of the stats, external to what the player did. We’ve discussed this before and that’s why I said I’ve never seen a counter argument that actually addressed the point I raised. Except gbacci did address it (and it’s up to us whether we agree or not with what he said and why to use it or not use it), that’s why I thanked him

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I’m talking about custom leagues with fictional players. A team with 3 dWAR players up and down the lineup is unrealistic. It isn’t based on anything “real”.

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So your issue is with the commish lol. DWar acts like the stats tell it too. Fire doesn’t have anything to do with the stats except that it’s a new stat that is made up. This is going to keep going in circles like it always does. I’m done, feel free to get the last word in

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And fire is a stat. It’s an approximation of how clutch the player is. How is it any different than a 10 speed? That’s not anything a fictional player accrued. It’s a number based off of SBs and triples. But it isn’t real. But since it is there, you surprise bunt people to death.

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10 speed a real stat? Just answer that.

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My one beef with Fire is the way it SEEMS to manifest itself in a game,

The idea that a Hitter can be in a zone and seeing the ball like its 3x its size is not unreasonable, however even a locked in hitter needs base runners to have big games, and that is my issue.

I see way too many times where a team down 2 runs late in a game gets 2 quick outs, then a single, HBP or Error,- BB, BRINGING up the guy on Fire to hit the GW HR -

Now Fire is effectively affecting 3 guys because the SIM sets the table for the on fire guy.

and its not a rarity, its more often than not and you know it as it is happening too.

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Fire does not impact the players before or after the fire player. That’s exactly the kind of stuff this thread is about.

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"But let me ask you, how do you feel about exploits? Like yanking every starter early to basically only use an elite bullpen? Or getting every player with the highest dWAR with little regard to offense?"

I really like them. I think teams don't go as far as to experiment in these ways because, frankly, real life teams are slow in ways to change. We now see the prevalence of relievers with crazy stuff, and the top-level RP WHIPs are through the roof.

Similarly, we also don't know if an all-defensive team would work. We simply don't have the ability to quantify WELL how decently a player is defensively, or whether playing with otherworldly defensive players further helps improve a team's defensive onto of the individual sum of the defensive efforts.

Likewise, players can be in the zone, or they can get extra time with the pitching/hitting coach. These two effects exist, but we are much further from quantifying them than we are the other two. That's probably why when they do factor into the sim, they factor in evenly.

Every single thing in the sim (perhaps with the exception of attempting a steal down two runs in the ninth), can be explained within the fabric of the story of baseball. Some of the pieces are more interesting than others. People like some of the pieces more than others, for many different reasons, whether it is realism, or something else.

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I tried the all def thing it did not work for me i think you need a even mix. what i think works best and there are many players much better thin me is to try to do everything good. but thats hard to do.

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I’ve won a title in best of 1980s with all defense and I’ve had 100+ win seasons, but never a ring, doing all D in ATG

A balanced team is better, but you can win. You need speed along with the D and good DH hitting 2nd to drive in just enough runs.

And my all D teams that were successful had super elite SP

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I like def if you cant draft a star or 2 you can always go def and at the bear min get a 500 season