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Pitcher fire


Pitcher fire

Now that we can see which pitchers were on fire in a game, a few of us have noticed that it seems to happen a lot less often than we thought. To my understanding, if an SP fire is 20, that means 20% chance of being on fire any given game. Over 30 starts, you’d expect them to be on fire 6 times, though obviously it won’t always be exactly 6. Relievers are the same, and we’ve been told multiple pitchers can be on fire for a team per game.

But what we are seeing is much less, almost half. Here is a two day sample from my league. Small sample of course, but it’s what we’ve been seeing daily. Each of these game days had 15 games, all 30 teams playing

Day 1
SP - none of the 30 were on fire
RP - 6 of 83 were on fire, 7%

Day 2
SP - 2 of 30 were on fire, 7%
RP - 9 of 76 were on fire, 12%

I didn’t calculate all the fire of the pitchers involved, but in my league they are all between 10 and 29, so I would expect a percent closer to 15-20. But we’re seeing half. There were a few other days we checked that were similar. So just wondering, are we understanding pitcher fire wrong?

Re: Pitcher fire

Could it be that would-be On Fire pitchers were not used?

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The way we’ve been told it works for pitchers is each is checked as they come in game and any can be on fire. As opposed to hitters which is done by going through lineup in order and once one is on fire, it stops checking.

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I think I have found and fixed a glitch where "on fire" was not always displaying properly on the box score for pitchers. I implemented this fix around noon pacific, so let's see if this impacts the results.

In terms of the logic, it gets applied to all pitchers before the game starts, but I don't see how that would be any different than doing it as someone enters the game, so that shouldn't impact the odds.

It's hard to say if there's something else going on until we can see what it looks like now that I've fixed this box score issue.

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personally i wish pitchers were on fire way less than they are, i think it impacts the game way too much. i know that wasnt the point of the post tho

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No it wasn’t.

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Could you explain the “applied to all pitchers” part? Do you mean just pitchers available for the game?

Batters:
Does PC do a fire check with each batter down the lineup BEFORE the game or does it perform the fire check as each batter comes to the plate?

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The common thought is that it runs down the lineup until it hits a guy on fire 🔥 and it may in fact hit none but once it does hit 1. That’s it

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I got that. I’m just wondering if it checks before the game starts, or does it do it in game while going through the lineup. Guy mentioned that pitchers get checked before the game. But that doesn’t make sense to me. It should only check that games starter and the bullpen. That’s why I think I’m game check would be better. Check each batter as they come up to the plate until someone gets it. Same with the pitchers. Each pitcher gets checked as he is entering the game. That way only guys who played that day get checked for fire. Just my two cents.

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Josh, probably before game starts like pitchers but like Guy said, works the same. However, the one difference would be the bench, they may come in game different order than bench. That goes for RPs too with closer and setup and LR rule.

Re: Pitcher fire

All the on fire's are set before the game starts.

Only one offensive player from each team can be on fire, so in order to give each team an equal chance to have one starter on fire, it goes down the lineup.

All the pitchers get checked before the game as well. Remember any SP could enter the game later, you never know. So every pitcher on the staff gets tagged for fire every game.

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But that makes no sense. Why would you check fire on a pitcher who just pitched last game? Why would you check for a tired reliever? Why would you check on a SP who still needs 2 days rest?

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And what is the thinking behind 1 offensive player and unlimited pitchers? Asking for insight, not to question your judgement.

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A tired RP can easily get in the game. It does no harm to check all the other pitchers for fire since that doesnt end it, they're all checked. And like Guy said, any SP can get in the game. Yeah, the tired SPs never will, but no harm having them checked since it doesnt stop others from being on fire. I do agree checking them as they enter the game makes more sense then needing to check all, but there doesnt seem to be harm the other way.

I see big difference now with box scores. Found a few games showing multiple pitchers on fire, wasnt really seeing that before. In my last batch of games, it was more in the 15-20% range of pitchers on fire I'd expect since they generally have 15-20 fire rating.

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I love the fire addition to the box scores. Thank you for listening to ideas and implementing them. That is pretty awesome. We appreciate your effort and time.

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There's no specific reason, it was just cleaner and easier to put it one place, and since it doesn't really matter when it happens, it just happens at the start of the game.

Fire is separate from fatigue - so you can be both on fire and tired, which means you're getting dinged for being tired, but you're getting a boost for on fire - they sort of cancel each other out I guess. And like Brian said, there's technically no harm in a pitcher who will not enter the game to be checked - it has no impact on his chances in future games. The code is simply looping through the roster anyway, so there's no extra code involved to check all players at once.

In the early days of the game, you would see games with multiple batters on fire for the same team, and it just wasn't fair. Not to mention the results were unrealistic. So we cut it back to one and that seemed to work well.

On the other hand, just because a SP is on fire, it didn't feel right to rob a RP of his chance to also be on fire - since pitchers don't play every game, robbing one of their opportunities would significantly reduce the value of on fire for RPs.

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Great addition. Regarding hitters, I understand that each hitter is checked before the game until 1 hitter is on fire (or none). Does it follow the order of the lineup an then bench players or does it check the roster in some other order? I've always believed that higher fire guys at the top of the lineup gave them a better chance at being the hitter on fire but that would only be true if players are checked in the lineup order. Thanks!

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Yes lineup order

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Just had all 3 Ps on fire in same game! Love the addition in the box scores. Thanks again for always making improvements to the game Gbacci. I was also surprised to see 2 low fire (8) hitters get fire as a pinch hitter recently. Strange but certainly possible based on the explanation. Maybe it’s good to pinch hit more to give your team more fire opportunities.

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Another great add, gbacci, including the number of the draft position in the notes for a player.

"Drafted #63 by the Alaska Nanooks in round 4 of the Live Draft."

Used to just say the round, now it has the number, too. Love it.

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I too like seeing who is on fire during a game but I don’t really understand it vey well. I had a RP “on fire” but he ((Jansen) pitched 1/3 of an inning, giving up three hits and three runs.. He didn’t face a hitter that was on fire. He was on fire all right but not in a good way. Any comments as to how to strategically use the on fire percentages, especially with pitchers.? Maybe in setting up the reliever sequence? Thanks for making the game.so accessible. Very enjoyable.

Re: Pitcher fire

Fire bumps up their stats some percentage for that game, doesnt make them invincible.

Not sure I'd worry too much about it setting your lineup/rotation. Sure, if you had two pitchers that were even and one had 25 fire and one had 10 fire, you'd put the 25 fire one ahead.

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Fire should definitely be considered when setting a lineup or rotation in many custom leagues, where fire is usually higher than in auto leagues.

As yankee says, fire doesn't make a pitcher invincible, but invincible isn't the goal, gaining a slight edge on the competition is the goal, and factoring fire into trying to reach that goal is necessary.