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dWar, What is it good for....


dWar, What is it good for....

i wont say absolutely nothing, but i think something is a bit broken with the way its implemented in the sim.

im not in a ton of leagues but in the ones i am in almost every single top team is punting on SS and CF with a terrible offensive player who is super high on dWar (those who happen to find a good offensively player with an absurdly high dWar at at an even greater advantage). Full disclosure, i do it too in all of my league. i had an under 10 rank CF in one of my leagues with a near 5 dWar playing every day for many seasons. plenty of my other teams still have players similiar to that profile in my starting lineups, and i see it in many, many leagues.

Now i know commishes are supposed to be on top of these things but i think the best way to handle this without having to tinker with the sim (which im sure would be very difficult and time consuming) is to kill how well the autocreate creates dWars for all positions.

looking at https://www.baseball-reference.com/.. tells me that the sim is creating waaaaaaaay too many high dWars. i see rookie draft classes that often have dWars regularly above 3. a player like that should only come along every few year or so, not having 10+ every season.

further even looking at dWar studs like simmons and kiermeir (form most recent memory) their peak was relatively short and at a younger age than the typical 28 that is used for offensive or pitching stats in PC. is there a way to have dWar peak at a lower age, or even to make dWar more of a U progression even if the rest of the player is A, S, C or F?

just my two cents. thanks Guy for all of the hard work you put into this site.

Re: dWar, What is it good for....

I don't think it's broken, it's just that owners have figured out that if you have really high Dwar capabilities it makes up for some deficiencies in the Batters box.

I am only talking about Auto Leagues though, I have heard that in Custom leagues players are being created with DWar ratings that are off the charts, it really should not be that way, it's a really huge influence on game play and in real life only a VERY SMALL number of players have achieved a DWar higher than a 4.0 - but unless something is done to tweak the player creator it won't change and everyone knows what they have to do to be competitive, and are doing it.

Re: dWar, What is it good for....

It is more of a Commish issue and a lack of understanding of the SIM, progressions, and dWAR.
I dont want to get off topic or come off as a d*ck (I always seem to anyway. Lol), but part of the issue I notice is this lack of understanding. Its not just DWAR. Its uber low AB/IP without the knowledge that they take HUUUUGE progression/regression jumps.

The high RF problem beget the high DWAR problem to some degree because we all didnt want all those created guys in Custom leagues to lose all their defensive value. The quick and dirty scale conversion only exposed that there were too many high RF players to begin with. We knew that already.

But I second what Mc is saying, Ive left the values alone in my 'niche' leagues, but in my season to season customs like Experiment, Ive been VERY careful about dWAR values, speed, etc.

And this is coming from a guy who hit the ground running here and soaked in all he could, its still taken me over 2 years to feel like I finally have a League EXACTLY as one should be.

Its super annoying to see people here two weeks and shouting out their new league to join. THESE are the kinds of posts EVERYONE needs to be reading first.

Re: Re: dWar, What is it good for....

I think mcvn is right about this.

Re: dWar, What is it good for....

DWAR is key in the auto leagues. I switched from focusing on high ranked players with negative DWAR, to lower ranked players with high positive DWAR. The results have been outstanding, most of my teams ranked in the top 1 or 2 on defensive, look at the D rating on the team stats. Robbing a lot of hits makes up for lower offense. My teams are winning at a much higher clip now. I used to wonder why my teams that were built on hitting were not winning, then I discovered the magic of DWAR.

Re: dWar, What is it good for....

The Rays suddenly win and Keirmeier (5 dwar) leads whole TEAMS in hits saved.

Still can’t ignore offense, saving a few hits a game doesn’t help if you can’t score. But it definitely helps bad pitching staffs. And it should. But I agree, like RF before it, it seems overpowered.

Re: Re: dWar, What is it good for....

Not gonna hide from it, I'm one of the biggest dWAR 'stackers' on the entire site. Often trying to strategize how much weaker I can let my offense get at the expense of how much I can help my pitching, which any owner should be trying to make their strength..,,Agreeing with several points made on this thread. But I'm also a believer in not throwing out the proverbial "baby with the bath water", what I mean is I'm not entirely convinced yet that it is TOO POWERFUL. But I'll say that Guy has responded well to our criticisms and curtailed the large progression of the stat over the career of a Custom League player. It has been a difference maker more for the good than the bad. I really only dig Custom leagues and Fave Teams when it comes to Auto Leagues, but after mixing and matching all types of rosters/leagues, I'd say if tweaked, it should be downward, and SLIGHTLY, not drastically, otherwise its tougher for most of us to truly gauge the effects. Its DEFINITELY helped. And its DEFINITELY better than Range Factor, so lets all thank Guy for that alone, but yes, I'll concur, its a VERY powerful resource to use. I'll only add that at this point, cat's outta the bag now kids, if you're not finding ways to use defense to your benefit, then you must be living under a rock or visit this site once a month. Lol

Re: dWar, What is it good for....

I will admit to knowing precious little about dWar, except after making sure I have players with a high rank in it wherever I can, has made a HUGE difference in my team's competitiveness.

Offense is a necessity, but defense is too. I'm finding I worry more about dWar more now than I ever have

Re: Re: dWar, What is it good for....

Same finding, Baseball4ever!

Re: dWar, What is it good for....

To some extent I’ve been waiting for the feedback on dwar and haven’t heard much yet one way or another on its power other than the outliers. When it first launched it was way too powerful but since then it seems to be at a decent level. Yes it has definitely created value for defensive players up the middle, but that’s not a totally unrealistic thing in baseball... teams focus on defensive skills at those positions all the time, even at the expense of offense in some situations.

You guys know I always thought the range factor obsession was overblown but I’m more open with dwar to adjust because it does truly impact individual player value. To Jays point though, it has to have some tangible value that everyone understands and that translates in the sim otherwise there’s no point. We are still playing a video game at the end of the day so it has to feel like it has a consistent impact.

As for custom players... I thought I already tweaked Quick Create but I will look at it again. I also can’t remember if I added the ability for custom dwar ranges yet but I don’t think I have. And yes, as jay mentioned, progression of dwar was changed a while back so it’s not nearly as crazy.

From the auto league perspective I haven’t had much issue with it, but custom leagues with lots of high dwar players could definitely create an issue.

Re: Re: dWar, What is it good for....

actually as far as i can tell there is no ability to add custom ranges for dWar in quick create. that would be suuuuuuuuuuuper helpful if you could do that

Re: Re: dWar, What is it good for....

"Yes it has definitely created value for defensive players up the middle, but that’s not a totally unrealistic thing in baseball... teams focus on defensive skills at those positions all the time, even at the expense of offense in some situations."

I have just starting to evaluate players comparing their offensive skills to defensive... Yep, just like everyone does. Start out thinking you can bomb everyone with home runs and win pennants despite crappy D.

Sorry, doesn't always work that way, and since I started paying attention to dWar, my winning percentage has improved. Not insanely, but noticeably. Nothing out of the range of normal learning curve and strategy improvement.

I don't see dWar being overpowered, but more of a nice counter/strategy option.

Re: dWar, What is it good for....

The one issue I do see with DWar in auto leagues is that because a LOT of the High DWar guys are not also highly ranked, the SIM is underestimating their value and impact to the game play and league balance.

You get offered say 1 or 2 -90+ ranked position players which is fine, but when you offer me a 70 and and it's Scott Rolen or Darrin Erstad, which are 70's with HIGH DWar values, you just gave me another 90+ position player, because pitchers don't field they are unaffected

DWar needs to somehow be incorporated into Rank in order for the SIM to offer fair value to all, I see way too many 1st or 2nd to draft teams in auto leagues with ridiculously good line-ups because of that disparity, do all owners take advantage of it? NO, but the savvy ones do and it is actually leading to more of these "Filler" or Dynasty" teams- there is simply no fruit left on the tree and owners go elsewhere.

Re: Re: dWar, What is it good for....

right, but I would offer an alternate solution: do away with rank entirely

Re: dWar, What is it good for....

Why would you do away with rank entirely? I used to think that rank actually affected a players ability but now view it as strictly a tool to evaluate their Offensive prowess.

It doesn't take Fielding, speed, Slugging or stolen Bases into effect- How would you do a draft without having rank to help you make a fairly decent decision on how strong a player is offensively? In my opinion it's a time saver, and that's about it.

I am sure that if you did away with it than the owners willing to spend extra time determining that players actual value would prosper, but how would the SIM know how to try to balance the pool of Talent?

Re: dWar, What is it good for....

I would keep the rank, as it does indicate offensive performance. When I draft in auto league, I see the list of 7 or 8 players, see the general ranking is in the 90's, I know they are solid hitters, then I slide over and draft the player with the best DWAR in the group of offered players. The same with the next grouping and so on.
Pitching is a little closer to ranking and value, but even with pitching I select the pitcher with the lowest WHIP in that group regardless of rank.
I actually think it evens the scale if someone has a great slugger but a large negative DWAR, you can still compete with and average hitter and a very high positive DWAR.

Re: Re: dWar, What is it good for....

Maybe if the Rk was changed to RkO -- so it was clear that if was offensive rank. I just checked, and I don't think it's that clear right now.

Re: dWar, What is it good for....

Nap, the biggest reason Rank is a good thing, (and I was someone who wasn't a fan of 'simplifying' things too much, I was wrong in my assumption.) from a Commish standpoint, its more effective as a leveling tool, as the stat levels drive the SIM (Run environment, league batting average). Previous Stat leveling tools like IP minus Hits for pitching was a starting point at best.

Re: Re: dWar, What is it good for....

I'm somewhere in between Nap and Jay on Rank. My main issue with it is just understanding what it's doing. What I've seen is that if you have two hitters with the exact same batting average but different ranks they will have a large variance in their compiled batting average.

Example from a Ruthian league
Jimmie Foxx .364 96 rank 5 speed rh hitter
Lew Fonseca .361 61 rank 5 speed rh hitter

Compiled stats over 10 years
Foxx .318 over 6772 at bats
Fonseca .262 over 4549 at bats

You can explain some variance on lineup position because of On Fire - but 56 points of variance? I feel like Rank does well in most other places - including pitching and walks for hitters but not great on batting average.


Re: dWar, What is it good for....

Youre missing the obvious here when it comes to individual performance...

SLG matters. I would bet my life Foxx has a significant higher Real and Compiled SLG, right?

We routinely see high AVG, high OBP, therefore high RK, but median to low SLG players perform poorer than those with with the same or slightly lower AVG and/or OBP, but significantly higher SLG.

Only one hitter per team can be on fire per game, higher Fire just increases the likelihood that it will be THAT player. PC is pitcherfriendly by design. And it seems likes the SIM needing to steer the extra-base power helps aid AVG and OBP more than those two aid themselves alone.

The same can be said for low WHIP, low H9, low K9 pitchers. Ones with same or slightly worse WHIP and H9, but a much better K rate seem to regularly perform better. And that makes sense. As the strikeout is the absence of putting the ball in play, and it's the total absence of getting on-base.

Re: Re: dWar, What is it good for....

True Jay, but strike outs are in my opinion TOO highly over rated in PC

Lot's of Pitchers - Like say Eduardo Rodriguez of Boston routinely get lots of strikeouts but also SUCK - and they don't last long in games because they throw too many pitches

K's are fantastic, but 1 out and men at 1st and 3rd I'l take the one hopper to SS over the K any day- the former gets you out of the inning- the latter doesn't

Re: dWar, What is it good for....

Yes but a strikeout is a strikeout. You can’t guarantee the non-strikeout is getting hit to your SS, or that it doesn’t go through for a hit or a sac fly. A strikeout is a guaranteed out w no advance. A ball in play is far from that.

Re: Re: dWar, What is it good for....

i don't disagree yankeebb except that high strikeout pitchers perform WAY better on PC than they should-

Greg Maddux is a perfect example, he never struck out many guys, but he was pretty damn effective

He faced 20,421 batters and only 310 of them saw a 3-0 count - 177 of those, were intentional walks - he had guys hitting nubbers and pounding it into the dirt all game, and used so few pitches that he led the League in Batters faced 4 seasons in a row - in those 4 years the highest K/9 rate he had was 6.8 - with 46 complete games


Yet you don't see Maddux winning the Cy Young in PC like EVER But he had 4 of them - The High K guys get more points in the Cy Young race in PC

Re: dWar, What is it good for....

Welp, Maddux is 14th among ALL pitchers on the site in Auto League Cys... many are best of 1990, but he has a lot of ATGs too:

https://www.pennantchase.com/home/a..
Pitch-to-contact guys do fair a little worse in a game where lineups are totally loaded, that is true.

Re: Re: dWar, What is it good for....

For anyone interested, custom range for Dwar is now on the Quick Create player page for commissioners. I ran a few tests and it seemed to be working as expected, but if you catch any issues, just let me know.

Re: dWar, What is it good for....

Amazing! Thank you!

Re: Re: dWar, What is it good for....

I agree with SinCity's comments on dW in autodraft auto leagues.

If you're one of the last teams to draft, it's really hard to be competitive. If you're one of the first, you're in good shape.

Daily drafts are good, regardless.