Compiled DRS/dWAR Primer

I do believe it's very possible to compile a Defensive Runs Saved/defensive WAR stat here at Pennant Chase. However, I do not code. So I don't know to what degree of work it takes to make some things possible.

I was planning on posting this today, and the previous dWAR post is the perfect segway.

Currently, we have a Team Hits Saved +/- stat compiled and found on Team Stats page. We have all concluded that this is compiled based on the number of hits individuals are saving or allowing per their individual dWAR.

So we already have the starting building block.

League Stats are kept for leveling purposes that we know of. League Average, Run Environment, and League ERA can be found at any point when you go to the Adjust Stat Levels feature.

Compiling defensive runs saved and/or dWAR, wouldn't require much more league averages being computed behind the scenes.

I don't know if Guy has ever thought about adding whether a hit ball was hit softly, medium, or hard, but in the future, it would allow more "buckets" and varying degrees of difficulty to further push a more accurate number.

Anyways, we can find the Run value of an Out by using league stats for any league. If we credit/demerit an individual for 'x' number of Runs per Out made or Hit allowed, we now have a Run value for Hits Saved/Allowed or Defensive Runs Saved.

A baseline can be the league as a whole or a little more work, increased accuracy, would be by position. I understand players switching during games, being used at other positions complicates this, that's why one size fits all may be the best initial route.

We can also calculate Runs per Win for any league already:

RPW= 9 × (League Runs Scored/League Innings Pitched) × 1.5 + 3

Taking our Defensive Run value and dividing by our Runs per Win value would then give us a players 'rough dWAR estimate'.

Thoughts? Guy ?

Finding value of a Run per SB and CS will also allow us to add CS data to compiled DRS/dWAR.

How do you get to the defensive run value based on what’s available today in pc?

*Lg is abbreviation for League.

Lg Runs Scored/((Lg At-Bats - Lg Hits) + Lg SacFly + Lg SacBunt + Lg GIDP + Lg Caught Stealing))

gives you a rough Runs per Out value.

Obviously we can't get into run expectancies, base-out states, things of that nature that would measure impact.

But if we can turn how many Hits saved/allowed into a Run Value, we're on our way..

Bump.

I'd like to discuss further. Post already buried by mixture of usual welcome announcements/news and same ol' nonsense otherwise.

Thoughts? Input?

Or is developing a more advanced compiled defensive metric for the site not as interesting as trolls and Matt Olson/Olsen (;)) ?

If dWar is going to continue to be such a big factor in this game, and it is a big factor, it would make sense to be able to see individual dwar results as well. Could really help in drafting players and comparing league history.
Bump - I'm not smart enough to figure it out, but I am all for it !

Bump

I could see starting with the exposure of the individual plays which has always been the idea. The actuall calculation proposed by Jay is super interesting, but would require crunching league wide numbers every time you compile stats, so there’s a server performance hit there that would have to be evaluated before this could really be considered.

Bump. (To keep open/available)

Bump. (To keep open and available as a topic.)

Jay,

Hmmm ... Is this what I am proposing .... yes and no. I do not want to calculate the Run Value which is ambitious, I was merely suggesting a simple counter for the hits prevented. In other words, how many stellar plays did the play get mentioned in. I thought that it might help with things like glove glove nominations etc. As well as making new managers realize the value of high dWAR players. Just a thought.

Doc