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MLB Stealing Home Questions


MLB Stealing Home Questions

The other day in the world series, Tampa Bay tried to steal home. As the pitch came to the plate the batter backed away and the catcher moved up to catch the pitch. My questions, I admit I don't know the rule, could the batter have swung at the pitch and he clearly would have hit the catcher, causing catchers interference and getting award 1st base? Would the runner have to go back to 3rd or would the play count either safe or as in this case out?

Re: MLB Stealing Home Questions

If the umpires deem that the batter intentionally made contact to interrupt the fielding of the pitch, it is batter interference.

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last player to pull off a steal of home in the world series was jackie robinson, which shows how hard it is.

Re: MLB Stealing Home Questions

it actually wasn't a pitch that Margot tried to steal on. He took off before Kershaw had started his move toward home and Kershaw (smartly) stepped off the rubber and then threw home. So the batter had to get out of the way.

Re: Re: MLB Stealing Home Questions

rod carew in the 70's was probably the last player who could routinely steal home. ricky henderson didnt try that much

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just looked it up , ricky stole home 4 times thats it, and it was in 81 and 82 when billy martin was his manager

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For a club that leans heavily on math and percentages for all decisions, the steal of home is a terrible choice for TB, especially against a veteran pitcher who is not going to panic for the split second needed for the steal to be successful.

Giving the opposition an out on a very low percentage play is how you swipe second place.

Re: MLB Stealing Home Questions

no, because kershaw stepped of the rubber

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hey dandy i know your young but heres the deal as joe b likes to say. whether or not it was a pitch , if you run from third to home that is a steal and you will be out. thats why it hasnt happened since the 50's

Re: MLB Stealing Home Questions

MrBubbles, I know your old here, so your eyes might not work, but I was replying to baseball4ever. and age has nothing to do with this

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Not necessarily, sol. Did you see Tom Tango's calculation that it was worth it if he thinks he will be safe 35% of the time? Given that it was a bang-bang play, I think 35% is not out of the realm of possibility.

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" last player to pull off a steal of home in the world series was Jackie Robinson, which shows how hard it is."

Not True, last player to steal Home in the World Series was believe it or not Brad Fullmer in 2002

He stole 32 bases in an 8 year career...

Re: MLB Stealing Home Questions

@MrBubbles1967 , see? research before you spit out false facts

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Tom Tango has won how many World Series?

Is anyone really going to stand on a hill and claim that a steal of home is successful 35% of the time, even if it is the best base stealers in the league making the attempt? 2% of the time, maybe, by the best of the best.

How many times did the Rays steal home during the regular season? No idea, but surely not too often, if any. Going with the element of surprise in the biggest game of their year? Savvy. Against a Hall of Fame caliber pitcher. Real savvy.

Does Tango eliminate, from his steal of home calculations, the percentages of a passed ball or wild pitch? They score that run from third. How about an error in the field? That run scores. How about a hit? My numbers say that a broken bat single scores that run from 3rd.

A straight steal of home is foolish, no matter how many quants throw up numbers saying it is "smart" if it is successful x% of the time.

Re: MLB Stealing Home Questions

The Fullmer play was a double steal. It still counts as a steal, but I think Mr. Bubbles was referring to a straight steal of home.

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Gotta say I did not expect you to straight discard the numerical calculations.

If that's your opinion on the matter, it's a difference of values and I think the discussion pretty much ends here.

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Just FYI, Margot said after the game that he tried the steal on his own - it wasn't called by the manager.

- The Sheik

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I didn't discard the numbers. I disagreed with the numbers. To think a steal of home could be successful 35% of the time is absurd.

And, I pointed to the numbers in other ways...

A hit, even with the worst MLB hitters, will happen 15% of the time. We have a century of numbers to prove that. Nobody has any numbers to support a steal of home could be successful 35% of the time. Then, add up the percentages of a passed ball, wild pitch, and fielding error, and that run scores, without a hit, another 2 or 3% of the time.

How about the chance of three BBs in a row to score that run? That is worth .05%. How about a balk?

In my opinion, there is no way a steal of home is more successful than letting even a bad hitter swing. Add in the variety of other ways that run scores, and the steal is an even worse gamble.

If a steal of home was a smart play, we would see them far more often than once every 40 years. That's a different kind of math to debunk Tango's dancing around the facts.

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exactly my thoughts. it wouldn't have even been a steal in my opinion, since kershaw stepped of. he would have to go through his motion for it to be a steal. that's what I was doing to answer someone's question before MrBubbles basically said I was too young to know about baseball, even though I bet I know more about it then him

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You attacked the methodology twice.

"Tom Tango has won how many World Series?"

"Does Tango eliminate, from his steal of home calculations, the percentages of a passed ball or wild pitch? They score that run from third. How about an error in the field? That run scores. How about a hit? My numbers say that a broken bat single scores that run from 3rd."

Which is what I reacted to.

If you want to disagree with the 35% figure (which you did), fine. Just say that. Makes you look more credible.

"If a steal of home was a smart play, we would see them far more often than once every 40 years. That's a different kind of math to debunk Tango's dancing around the facts."

As we've found out from years of sport watching, teams are not run efficiently at all. No point in reading into what professional teams do considering people critique their decisions (with good reason) often.

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We have one data point, the Margot steal, that was nearly successful. Given the outcome of it, which we saw, I think it's possible that he had a 35% chance of success. You disagree with that, which you have stated. That's the point of disagreement, and that's fine.

If you think the 35% figure is wrong, you need to counter it with evidence, not just "oh the worst hitter in baseball gets a hit 15% of the time" and listing other possible scenarios. That's not how science works.

Re: MLB Stealing Home Questions

10/27 mcvn4 Random Chatter 0 0
its not 35% in a vacuum tho. Kiermeir (a lefty) was up against kershaw. there were 2 outs. kiermeir is not exactly known for his bat and he batted .158 against lefties (kershaw was on the mound) this year (and .245 on his career). so my guess is they thought that 35% chance of a stolen base is better than whatever percentage chance you think kiermeir had of getting a hit.i think passed balls, errors, etc. are not something that are going to add toooo much to the percentages but maybe im wrong.

note: i didnt read any of the article y'all quoted so not sure if this was mentioned already in there

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15% of the time being successful doesn't matter? Say what? That's exactly how science works. 15% is not some number plucked out of a quant's keester, 15% is hard science from 130 years of data.

A steal of home isn't tried enough to give any sort of sample size for anyone to legitimately attach some "if it works x% of the time, it's a good play." Why isn't it tried enough? Because nobody needs science to realize the difficulty of scoring a run with a human being holding the ball 60 feet from the plate while the runner is 90 feet from the plate.

Why is Tango's credibility assumed without any numbers to prove it is even possible to steal home 35% of the time in any league? Yet, I have to earn my credibility to say 35% is horse droppings?

How many baseball games has Tango simmed in his life? I am willing to bet I have simmed more baseball games than he has, which makes me more of an expert than him.


Kiermaier's ineffectiveness against lefties doesn't make the steal a better play in that situation. KK5 was up 1st the next inning, and Kershaw was still pitching. Now, not only does the attempted steal make the 3rd out of the current inning, it also makes it likely that the Rays have an out walking up to the plate to lead off the next inning. Which is what happened. KK5 struck out in the 5th.

Never, ever give your opponent an out, especially not by failing at one of the lowest percentage plays in baserunning.

A hit, walk, hbp, passed ball, wild pitch, balk, error in the field... I would take my chances on those 10x out of 10 over trying to steal home against Kershaw.

I wonder if the Dodgers think the opposition has more than a 2% chance of stealing home against them? Evidence says they have a 0% chance.

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In fairness I believe Tango was saying that if the runner thought he would be successful 35 percent of the time than he should try it, which to me is head scratching material,= why would you try some thing that is unsuccessful 65 percent of the time unless the odds of scoring from 3B with two is less than 35 percent?

It would be very difficult to figure out what the real percentage of stealing home is because of the variables, how many outs? any other base runners?
also the runners caught stealing home on failed suicide squeezes need to be determined

Re: MLB Stealing Home Questions

"Why is Tango's credibility assumed without any numbers to prove it is even possible to steal home 35% of the time in any league? Yet, I have to earn my credibility to say 35% is horse droppings?"

Tango is not saying that it is possible to steal home with 35% chance of success. I am saying that. Tango is saying it is worth it if you will be safe with at least 35% chance of success.

You can read more here from MLB's Senior Data Architect!
https://twitter.com/tangotiger/stat..
With such a fundamental misunderstanding of the issue at hand, I see no reason to continue the conversation.

I hope you have a nice day! =)

Re: MLB Stealing Home Questions

Stealing home was dumb unless he was safe. There, that ends it.

I think it was dumb unless he knew he’d make it because of some issue pitcher had, a lot tougher with a vet on the mound.

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Tango saying "if the runner thought he had a 35% chance of making it," is an implicit indication Tango believes it is possible to steal home 35% of the time.

Do you think Tango is saying it's only possible to steal home 5% of the time, but if the runner feels he has a 35% chance of success, the attempt is mathematically valid?

You can't legitimately float the 35% threshold if you believe the success rate is, mathematically, less than 35%. So, yes, Tango is saying it is possible to steal home 35% of the time, otherwise he may as well opine about "if a batter feels he has a 98% chance of hitting a HR, he should swing the bat."

Re: MLB Stealing Home Questions

With two outs, a steal of home is successful about 35% of the time

https://tht.fangraphs.com/steals-of..
Also, it’s a dumb move most of the time, which is partly why you don’t see it often (there’s also inertia in baseball strategy)

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the last player to steal home in the world series was jackie robinson. mic drop

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I read some of the article claiming a 35% success rate. It's a fantasy article. It relies on sketchy data. No context to any of the supposed successful steals of home.

If steals of home were really successful 35% of the time, then we would see them tried 100x more each season.

Man on 3rd with a pitcher hitting? 2 outs? Might as well try to steal home. It's successful 35% of the time!

Up 1 run with 2 outs and a man on third, with a weak hitter against a dominant RP? Try to steal home! It's successful 35% of the time!

35% doesn't pass the smell test for what seems to be obvious reasons. But, for me, the most obvious reason a steal of home is foolish, especially in that TB/LAD situation: Its success relies 100% on the opponent making a mistake or being caught flat-footed. All Kershaw had to do was make an average play in an extraordinary situation. And, he did. Champion.