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Stealing difficulty


Stealing difficulty

Anyone else find it difficult to have a high success rate for stolen bases?
Any tips in the team strategy to help?
I currently have fast runners set at 7 or 8 with 50% steal attempt of 2B.
medium runners set at 5 or 6 with 20% steal attempt of 2B.
I shut down the run against strong-armed catchers.
Recent MLB yearly team averages are 100 SBs at @70% success rate.
I rarely ever come close to that.

Re: Stealing difficulty

I set fast at 9, medium at 8, and don’t steal with anyone slower than that. Shut down run vs. strong arm catcher unless my team is purely built on speed, which is rare.

Re: Re: Stealing difficulty

Agree with NCook. That is the recipe for 70% success rate.

Re: Stealing difficulty

I concur with not trying to steal with anything lower than an 8 speed and shut down against Strong arms- and stealing 3rd base is WORSE and in real life it's actually MORE successful than stealing 2nd!

By the way Stealing bases is WAY too difficult in PC and is honestly hardly worth the risk, a guy who stole 10 bases in Real life won't steal 2 in PC without being thrown out like 7 times, and as I've mentioned before, the Defense never drops the throw, the catcher never throws the ball away, and the pitcher never throws wildly to a base.

Not enough juice for the squeeze



Stealing Third Base, Stealing Home, and Other Baseball Thievery

"Stealing third base is generally easier than stealing second. You can take a bigger lead at second than at first without drawing many throws. If your timing is good, you can also take off from second before the pitcher actually releases the ball.

Pitchers generally find it more difficult to pick runners off second than at first; the timing between the pitcher and his fielder must be precise. To catch you at second, either the second baseman or the shortstop has to cover or cheat (lean) toward the bag; this leaning opens up a hole for the batter. Alert coaches let you know when the fielders are sneaking in on you.

The potential to steal third depends on the batter at the plate. If a right-handed hitter is at-bat, you have an advantage because the catcher must throw over or around him to get the ball to third. But never try to steal third with a lefty at the plate, unless you get such a good jump that even a perfect throw cannot beat you.

Re: Re: Stealing difficulty

People have low success rate here because they steal with the wrong players. I see so many try to steal with 7, 6, even 5 speed and the rate is fairly low. 10s go at about 80-90%, 9s 60-70%, and yeah, if you shutdown against strong arm the rate goes up. 7s maybe 50%, not worth it. Stealing 3rd is less successful here, so I never do it except maybe with 10 speed. And I dont think there's any point setting steal to a percentage. Either dont steal or set it to 100%. Setting it to 50% does what? We dont get to decide when to try it so all or nothing makes more sense. 100% doesnt mean they always try anyway, it means they have opportunity to try.

Re: Stealing difficulty

I agree with setting fast to 9 and medium to 8 (although sometimes I’ll set 7 to medium).

But, I set my 9s and 10s to steal second 90% of the time and 8s 50% (if I include 7s, I’ll drop that to 40%). I never steal third.

If I have more than 1 fast guy (9-10 speed), I do not shut down against strong arm catchers.

This has resulted in my fast guys getting 70+ (a few 100+) SB with 68+%

I’ve also played around with running with 7s and 8s more and it isn’t worth it.

Re: Re: Stealing difficulty

Below are team Statistics for the Bad News Bears League- The uniqueness is that no speeds higher than a 7 are allowed in this League.

About 9 games left in the Season look at the SB and CS percentages

it's not easy stealing with 7 speeds just as YankeeBB said

https://www.pennantchase.com/lgTeam..
And by the way, some of the successful Stolen Bases were stolen against NON CATCHERS who came in as Defensive replacements after an injury, so it's even worse than it appears!

Re: Stealing difficulty

so with so few players being an 8 or above, do you see your team getting anywhere near the team avg of 100 stolen bases a year?
I can see your success going up with these suggestions for sure though, so thanks for the tips.

Also, in the real stats you'll see guys with 5 speed with 20+ stolen bases and 7 speed guys with up to 40s.

That doesn't seem to jibe with what they can actually accomplish in the sim season.

Re: Re: Stealing difficulty

Speed in the sim also determined by triples, so some guys with more triple but less steals will have higher speed than guys with higher steals but low triples.

Re: Stealing difficulty

And yes, I can get 100 steals with only one or two 8 or higher speed guys.

Re: Re: Stealing difficulty

But shouldn't 5,6 or 7 speed guys get steals too (just not as many) at about the same success rate? That's how it is in MLB.
Goldschmidt is a 5 and had 20+ steals.
Ichiro is a 7 and had 40+.
Would make sense to have attempted steals automatic based on the speed rating and success based off the actual players statistics, similar to batting average.

Re: Stealing difficulty

This is a sim, so it just doesn’t work that way. A lot of those guys, like Goldschmidt, will make a “savvy” steal. They will take a bag from a guy they can get a great read on, etc. that will boost their steal numbers a bit. The sim can’t do that. It is purely numbers based. So steal percentage is based on Speed and whether you have a plus catcher behind the plate.

Re: Re: Stealing difficulty

You are correct NCook but the problem is that hitting Triples has NOTHING to do with stealing Bases

in 2017 Billy Hamilton hit 11 Triples and stole 59 bases .

Charlie Blackmon led the league that year with 14 Triples and stole 14 bases so in PC Blackmon would be a higher speed rating than Hamilton - Trust me, he is definitely NOT faster, or steals more bases than Billy Hamilton !!

In 2018 it was Ketel Marte with 12 triples and 6 Stolen Bases

it's simply a bad formula

The problem is that a fast guy with pop will get that extra base on a gapper or down the line while a slap hitter, like Hamilton, is trying to just get on base and do his damage afterwards - and every players stats in Baseball Reference contain their SB/CS numbers, and Catchers also have their SB/ and caught stealing percentages in their defense - so it COULD and should be better, BUT I am sure it's a Ton of labor and coding and it's simply not a high enough priority I guess.

I hate when people say that there doesn't need to be errors on steal attempts because it's baked into a players fielding percentage, that is TOTAL BS because you NEVER make an error on steal attempts and by the way, isn't DWar already baked into a Pitchers H/9? We allow pitchers to benefit but base runners get hosed and minimalized -

It is what it is, maybe someday it will be worked on, until then, it's just best to recognize what it is and play accordingly



Re: Stealing difficulty

Another thing that people fail to realize , the prewar parks were huge and made for triples. Baseball in the dead ball era was a totally different game. Frank " home Run" Baker did not hit a lot of homers. one thing i have noticed is that if you use deadball era players in the field its buyer beware. those sub .900 fld pct will lead to lots of errors. In fave teams leagues its just too risky.

Re: Re: Stealing difficulty

I believe those are numbers that could be worked into an algorithm.
No clue how difficult or timely to program though.
Baserunner attempted steal pct. +
Successful steal pct.+
Cathchers Pct of throwing out runners +
Pitcher steals allowed (Some pitchers had great moves and were tough to steal on, others were easy to steal on)

Re: Stealing difficulty

I never said anything about the formula being good or bad, just pointed out what it was.

Re: Re: Stealing difficulty

"I never said anything about the formula being good or bad, just pointed out what it was."

I didn't think I implied that you did NCook, I hope I did not offend, your analysis was correct I just wanted to point out that even though that is the way it's done, I don't think it's the best way. But it is what we have

Re: Stealing difficulty

All good man, all good.