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Same routine


Same routine

Why do I start out every team winning and then 20 or 30 games into the season my teams ALL go on losing streaks that last for 10 to 15 games then my teams lose 2 out of 3 the rest of the season? Just saying! I don’t think I will be playing anymore same old same old after 15 years I am tired of the same results. Yes I have won championships many years ago, last few years just suck. Tired of Ruth hitting 250 when I have him.

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I don't know what happened in the past but with only 4 SP your pitching staff will tire very quickly and underperform immensely

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Jose Vidro at shortstop...Harry Heilmann on the bench versus righties...you didn't snag pitchers in the supplemental draft (well, besides Pfeister, who you dropped)...Thome, Flick, and White in the minor leagues....

Many issues here. Look at what other teams are doing. The Corn Pickers have massive DWAR (and note that they've changed Darin Erstad's and Ozzie Smith's seasons - know your players!) and they took two starters and a reliever in the supp. draft.

Every supp. draft is the same story: "Oh, Larry Walker's available! I have to get him!"

No, you don't. Get an SP.

"Oh, I need some pop at shortstop! Let me slot this one guy in! Negative DWAR? Bah, he'll make it up with his bat!"

No. Get Ozzie Smith, Ernie Banks, Lou Boudreau, etc.

Sorry for the mini-rant, but it's easy to analyze your competition and mimic their strategies. There is no "secret formula," nor is the sim a wicked, cackling monster. It treats us all the same.

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The secret formula is to load up on dWAR and pitching.

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I have only been on Pennant Chase for about 20 months and DWar is all I have known, does anyone have an opinion as whether to Dwar is more powerful than Range was?

Dwar is very strong, and makes a huge difference, was Range as effective as Dwar?


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I'm newer than you and have a more basic question... :)

When you say dWAR is very strong... where do you see the results? Your pitchers just appear to be better? Do you "see" it anywhere else?

I did one 2019 draft focused on sluggers and doing another draft now where I'm looking for the best dWAR players (balanced with decent hitting). But I don't know what I'll see if the dWar method works... I'm guessing I'll see better pitching and more wins :) ?

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Range had a greater impact than DWAR,so much so that it became vital to get rid of it because it also did not seem very realistic.

I did not like Range because I felt it was not realistic and had too much of an impact on the game.

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Well, the only way you see it is to go to stats--- team stats. You'll see D +/- with a positive or negative number. You can click on the category name to order it from top to bottom. If it gets more granular than that, I just am not aware.

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Thank you, J-Underground.

I'm 25 games into a season and last in D at -4.

What is that -4? Is the number "extra outs made"? (Or in my case... 4 should-have-been-outs that ended up being hits because of my unathletic bunch?) Or runs or something else?

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Pretty much, yeah.
My rough assessment would be you want a SS with about 1.8 or higher, 2B not much lower, 3B positive, and ideally all positive numbers in the outfield, hopefully no one under about -0.1 in the OF, but stuff happens.
Guys with 3 or higher seem to be extremely valuable. I know that on some advice, I've drastically improved performance by privileging dWAR mid-season, shifting high d guys into the lineup. You can have mediocre offense and win a league if pitching is good--as you've deduced, pitching performance is tied to dWAR.
Obviously hitting is important--the more of everything you have the better, but defense is way important.

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The reason dwar can be so critical is because in many leagues on this site, all the lineups are loaded. We’re talking about fractional differences in performances. So what can set your team apart? Strong defense up the middle. Suddenly you are robbing hits while other teams are not.

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I do think that the generic create a player tool makes dWar too high on average, leading to many leagues having teams with historically high dWar players at multiple positions. Could be a thought to look at how it creates fears and compare to recent data and tweak it

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* look at how it creates dWars

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dwar is horrible... we have no way to keep it in check. I have said this before... dwar should not progress when players do. it makes no sense.

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This is why with the Experiment reboot, I'm being uber cautious w dWAR values, plus arms, and 9 and 10 speed players. There arent a ton IRL, so a league should reflect that.

I do agree that dWAR progresses too much. Maybe every other season it gains +0.1 or +0.2 as a solution?

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It should not gain at all . Players do not gain in dwar over the course of their careers... they usually decline if anything. look at the best defenders of all time. they either maintain the same number or close or they decline. dwar progressing is also killing the sims ability to create a hit besides a HR. We are getting a 3 outcome sim that is worse than what exists in the real MLB... .

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if your using classic progression then their dwar will increase until they reach 28 and then decline at set age for that to happen..
and if thats the case get ready as ive seen some crazy dwars in some progression leagues!

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I agree with VIPJOE, players RARELY improve their fielding as they age, in fact they WORSEN, DWAR should be a fairly static number, maybe stay the same until age 28 and then begin to decrease but certainly not increase.

If Through progression a hitters abilities increase and so do a pitchers -then increasing DWAR means the Pitchers get a 2X Boost while Battters only get 1 boost.

DWar has a negative effect on offense, unless you have really crappy fielders and even they would improve, which is unrealistic.

Do 1 Speed runners become a 6 as they age?? -of course not so why would an older, slower guy get better on Defense? that's silly ( in my opinion)

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I have put dwar caps on players at certain postions in my leagues. it is a huge pain but it is the only way to keep some things in check. There has never been a 4 dwar catcher in the history of MLB but for some reason that is an achievable mark.

There needs to be a cap in commish tools so you can set max dwar by position for a league or this will continue to plague leagues trying to run something remotely fair/normal

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You won't find a 1B with high dWAR either. I wanna say Albert had a +2 dWAR season at 1B in the mid 2000s.

Positional adjustments that award or demerit x number of Runs/162 games played also play a role. For instance a SS gets a 7.5 run bump per 162, while a DH is something like -13.5 runs ?

There shouldn't be any dWAR progression for players in lower skill positions.

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There should not be any progression at all. go find someone in baseball history who has a dwar that progressively got better every year they played then never regressed as they got older.

it is not a natural arc for that stat. us inflating it through progressions is only creating silly things to happen or not happen in sims.

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Is the argument progression, or lack of regression?

Progression happens: Alex Gordon peaked at 30, Jack Wilson 27, JJ Hardy 29, Pedroia 30. And those were just guys off the top of my head....

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To me it would make more sense for fielding percentage to progress and dwar to remain as is.

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it does regress when they reach the set age for stats to decline
but dwar in real life goes up and down in classic progression it obviously doesnt

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For the record:

2019 MLB Players:
Highest dWar: Plus 2.6 by OF Victor Robles, SS Nick Ahmed, and C Roberto Perez.
Lowest dWar: Minus 2.4 by OF J.D. Davis


Perhaps the greatest dWar player in today's game, SS Andrelton Simmons, had a 2019 dWar of Plus 2.0.

Simmons' dWar, by year (all numbers are Plus dWar):
2012, 22 yrs.: 2.38
2013, 23 yrs.: 5.43
2014, 24 yrs.: 3.89
2015, 25 yrs.: 3.49
2016, 26 yrs.: 2.57
2017, 27 yrs.: 4.17
2018, 28 yrs.: 3.1
2019, 29 yrs.: 2.0

It is fair to say that Simmons' dWar has been far higher, in his career, than the typical MLB SS.


My personal opinion is that dWar is too dominant in PC. I consider it the single most important statistic when building a team, over any hitting statistic. The best strategy, often, is to play a high dWar player at his secondary position and take the 0.50 fielding percentage hit.

In league after league I'm in, higher dWar teams dominate the regular season.

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I have to agree with Sol, I am in a league with him and his team is honestly, offensively fairly inept, he has good pitching, but his DWar stifles everyone else to the tune of -200+ runs allowed. than the next best team in the League

I also think that Auto draft leagues are going down hill because the SIM doesn’t seem to factor in High DWar when it offers players, it offers you a 99 OF and. 97 1B then the highest 3B you get offered is a 71 Scott Rolen but he has a 3.65 DWar - thats an absolute steal because the SIM only seems to consider Rank - which is strictly offensively based,



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You're a gentleman, SCM, to not add that your club beat mine in the World Series in that league.

A note that the D+/- stat (on Team Stats page) is hits prevented, not runs prevented.

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I agree Sol, regarding hits saved but my statement was accurate, your team has allowed 200 Less RUNS than All but 1 team and in that case its over 145+ less runs allowed.

I still opine that due to the fact that DWar turns hits into outs I would rather have a pitcher who allows less walks per 9 because DWar can steal some of those hits, BB/9 is what it is, in fact I beat you cause I allowed less walks then you

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one thought is as a commissioner set all rookies to a zero dwar or less when they come in so that their dwar is then tunted right off the top
and thus a bit harder to reach some absurd number..
ive seen players with up to a 7 dwar!
thus causing an entire league to bat under .250 or worse

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No commish should be allowing 7 DWAR players.
The problem w zeroing out young players is a lot of value to many young players is,in fact, their defense. Look at Vic Robles this year. Guys like Andrelton Simmons, Kevin Pillar, Kevin Kiermaier, Andrue Jones, they put up their BEST defensive sesons in their first couple of seasons. They're already not a strong offensively, take away any shred above above average defense and you have a useless player.

Then you have players like Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, Roberto Clements who had their best defensive stretches in the middle or backends of their career. If there was some way to make ALL defensive progressions either null or "U", that may be a better answer.

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Maybe I am mis informed, but wouldnt a +7 Dwar Ss take away about 30% of the hits towards or between 3rd and SS and SS and 2nd ???

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this was and of. that was a 7 dwar but league has over 40 players that are a 4 or above
at end of season almost 20 teams had a team dwar over 500 and two teams were over 700!
so after playoffs commissioner is reducing all players positive dwar by 50%

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Problem is any clown can "run a league". Didn't Avila have a league at one point? Brenduplantis and Cubs2016Champs also..

If you have commishes who don't understand how progressions and the different rates work, how AB/IP influence that, how stat levels work and how crucial they are, how draft classes should be made to avoid stat monsters, or how dWAR works or what kind of values are historic highs by position, you're going to get leagues that are what some are... Terrible.

This is why its imperative for owners turned commishes or first time commishes to ask lots of questions.

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Every commissioner should see this.
Also, I have an issue with people coming in and trying to be commishes with fewer than a thousand or so games under their belts.
I've seen commissioners who don't have a decent owner's knowledge of PC.

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Ha! I'm on the other end of it.

As a player, I ask 1000 questions... lol. Forget about being a commish!

I did open a sandbox league which helps to understand the playing side of it. I encourage other newbies to donate the $20 and do the same.

It's a fun site. Easy to get better.... hard to "master."

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DWAR Matters.

Heres a prime example of using pitching and defense in harmony.

I own two teams in MLB Dynasty. Yearly, my Braves and Sounds are the top 2 defensive clubs of the entire league. Last year they met in the World Series. Theyve been in the Top 5 of league power rankings as long as anyone can remember..

https://www.pennantchase.com/lgTeam..
Look at guys like Jack Wilson. Kevin Kiermaier. Valuing defense gives you a leg up for sure.

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Suppose an outfielder has a +2 dW value. Will he save more outs in the sim at CF than he would at LF or RF?

Or another example... I just tried to go defensive in a game and I put Paul DeJong SS(IF) at 1B to take advantage of his +2.1 dW. Did DeJong save outs in line with a 2.1 dW rating, or is that substantially reduced as a 1B (which typically have fewer out-opportunities) and a secondary position?

Or I guess another way to ask the question: Does the entire defense get better with Paul DeJong at 1B? (Not counting his Fld% reduction.) Or does it only affect the percentage of balls hit to 1B, so he "counts" more like a +1 dW player when he's at 1B?

And a question for JaySlater: You said, "Positional adjustments that award or demerit x number of Runs/162 games played also play a role. For instance a SS gets a 7.5 run bump per 162, while a DH is something like -13.5 runs?" Is that in reference to real MLB dWAR, or something about this sim? If it's about this sim, can you explain? (I understand how they weight dWAR in MLB... like you rarely see a 1B outside the range of -1 to +1. If a gold glove 3B moves to 1B, his DWAR drops... even though he's no worse of a defender.)

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Real MLB, so if real dWAR are attached to them, its derived from their real life dWAR. So when a commish creates dWAR for fictional players, it's assumed they play in the same manner. The positional adhustments mean nothing to us other than if you wanted to backtrack the calculation, thats where demerit/credit runs are added. For degree of positional difficulty.

As for your CF or corner OF question, both IRL and here, CF see significantly more chances over the course of the season. So you will best take advantage from the CF position.

As far as your DeJong question, look at it this way...dWAR is increasingly important to the positions that see the most balls in play.. It does not play a role in him receiving the ball at 1B on a groundout. Only if the ball is hit to him. How often do 1B see groundballs or even pop ups? Most of their chances are on PO from groundouts around the IF, same w C's, plus arm still matters more. As how many balls in play are your C ACTUALLY fielding per game? SS, 2B, CF, 3B see the most action,,then corner OF, then 1B/C..

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The bottom line is that if you are a +2.11 SS/IF and I decide to use you at 1B I still get your +2.11 DWar ability, just far less chances to take advantage of it AND I have to take a 50 point Fielding % decline to boot.

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Thank you.

I think we're saying the same thing different ways. You get a +2 dWAR-skilled player at 1B... but you're really only getting, say, +1 dWAR of value (or less) because the number of chances is reduced.

Anecdotally, it seems like it helps the defense more than that, but it's a small sample size for me... I'd have to play around with it on a full season to see it play out.

However, my brain hurts thinking through this scenario:
Francisco Lindor is a +1.7 dW at SS. Kolten Wong is a +1.7 dW at 2B. Both have IF as their secondary positions. (2019 leagues)

What happens if you swap them?

Ignore their drop in fielding percentage... how do the "hits saved" change?

Edit: In theory, I think... in real baseball, they would both remain +1.7 dWAR players. Lindor will look better at 2B, but then his numbers will be adjusted down to +1.7. Wong will look worse at SS, but then his numbers will be adjusted up to +1.7. So in the sim..... sheesh, I wouldn't even know how to try to program that.

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if they are both + 1.7 DWar it does not change - why would it? ONLY their fielding % would suffer because they are playing out of position.


look at it this way, say a 1.7 DWar has a ( totally arbitrary number) 7% chance of turning a ball that would normally be a Hit, into an out - that is a static number it will not change no matter where you place in in the field.

However, a +DWar 1B or 3B SHOULD have a better chance of turning a Double ripped down the line away than a 2B or SS does -so even though a corner infielder sees less chances than a middle infielder, he may potentially take away a 2B where a 2B or SS can't

as Jay said, a 1B may only see 3 balls to field in a game where a 2B or SS may see 10+ chances - but the number of chances should not matter - because only Hits can become outs or Outs become hits, if you are a + DWar you can't turn an out into a hit - if you are a NEGATIVE Dwar then the number of chances matter a LOT

At least that is my thinking

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"look at it this way, say a 1.7 DWar has a ( totally arbitrary number) 7% chance of turning a ball that would normally be a Hit, into an out - that is a static number it will not change no matter where you place in in the field."

The 1.7 DWAR number is static no matter where they move in the field. But the 7% number changes based on the position. At least that's real DWAR, in MLB. (As I understand it.)

Look at the Wins Above Replacement definition (applying to to real MLB baseball) as in, "How many more wins does a player earn at a position compared to the best available bench player at that position?" If Lindor is 1.7 wins better than the replacement SS, how much better is he than the best available 1B? Still 1.7 wins. That 1.7 dWAR stays the same.

He'll get fewer opportunities at 1B, but still add 1.7 more wins. How can he add the same number of wins on fewer opportunities? By saving a higher percentage of would-be-hits. So that % of saved hits would theoretically move from 7% to something like 14% when he moves from SS to 1B? (Which logically makes sense given who he's compared to... that he'd save 7% more than the replacement-level SS, but 14% more than the replacement-level 1B.)

Which takes me back to my CF vs RF/LF question... If a guy plays to a +1 dWAR in CF, he's one win better than the replacement centerfielder. We'll say he saves 5% of should-be-hits. When he moves to right or left field, he's still a +1 dWAR player. He sees fewer opportunities, but he saves more like 8% of would-be hits to still achieve his +1 dWAR. So in centerfield, he saves 1 in 20 hits, while in right field, he saves 1 in 12.5 hits. He'll save the same number of hits no matter where he's playing... (Or in WAR parlance, he'll earn the same number of wins no matter where he's playing.)

That's real life DWAR... which lines up anecdotally with what I see when I put someone like DeJong at 1B in this game. My questions earlier were about how the sim played out... if people saw it perform like this, or saw something more as you described.

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Can you explain why Edgar Martinez, who NEVER took the Field in 2004 has a -0.99 DWar then???

How can he be a negative DWar if he never played the field??

as far as I know, in PC your Dwar rating remains the same no matter what position you are placed in.

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A DH is losing -17.5 runs/162 games just on positional adjustment alone.

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A DH is losing -17.5 runs/162 games just on positional adjustment alone.

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If he isn't actually playing one of the 8 position on the field, a players dWAR is irrelevent.

- The Sheik

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I just don't understand why a guy who never fielded would HAVE a DWar rating??

the DH position never fields, period what is the logic for a guy who never fields to have a DWar rating??? and while I am not doubting you Jay, can you explain " Positional Adjustment in the case of a DH?

Is that when he moves his ass off the bench from one spot to another? LOL - not poking you, I just am lost on the whole thing Dwar for a DH thing

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Here's a pretty basic breakdown in layman's terms....

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/..

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While there are players who were strictly DH's, many times they played a game or so in the field and are given a rating based on that.

- The Sheik

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SinCity:

Here's an answer that's not technically right, but explains the concept: The components of WAR are compared to league average. So Edgar had 0 runs saved if he never played the field. Some people had negative, some had positive... Edgar was zero. But the average was 1. So Edgar was 1 below average... -1 DWAR.

That is a little too simplistic because ignores all of the conversions from runs to wins, and from average to replacement, and the positional adjustments. But it gives you the concept.

Another way to look at it...
John Olerud lead Seattle in games played at 1B that year. His dW (on baseball reference, anyway) was -0.2.
Scott Spiezio was second in games played at 1B that year. His dW was -0.4.

Edgar was presumably a worse defender than either them - otherwise they would have switched positions in the lineup, right? So Edgar's -1 seems about right...

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Also it wouldn't make much sense to me to give a DH who never played the field a 0 dWar rating. Kind of makes sense mathematically in very simplistic terms, but it would also mean that you're giving him a higher rating than about half the actual defensive players in the game. Presumably, he'd be at the very low end of the scale, fielding-wise, since the manager never dared put him into even one game defensively. So he's likely worse than some of the actual fielders who had negative dWar. Just a thought. I know that's not how the math works, but it's how my logic works!! lol

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Gus: You're right... and that is pretty much how the math works out.

It's true that Edgar wasn't positive or negative in actual contributions... but that means his defensive SKILLS (not contributions) were worse than the Seattle 1Bs...

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Regarding positional adjustment...

I explain it like this...slightly different than how Fangraphs explains it... the DWAR is a defensive rating compared to all other defenders, not just players at that player's position. So how do you compare a SS to a 1B to a RF and come up with one number that is a general "Defensive Talent" number?

Think of a player who splits his time evenly between 3B and 1B...

He plays the first 81 games at 3B and he is exactly league average on defense and saves 0 runs above average. (Roughly half the league is above him, and half is below him.)

Then he moves to 1B for the next 81 games. Just from watching baseball, you know an average defender at 3B would be a well-above-average 1B. So this guy moves to 1B and he saves 15 runs above the league average 1B.

He didn't get better at defense... he's just compared to less-athletic guys when he's at 1B... He's the same defender and should have the same "Defensive Skills" (DWAR) rating. So they apply the positional adjustments... they subtract 12.5 from all 1B's and add 2.5 to all 3B's. And Voila! This player was +2.5 at 3B and +2.5 at 1B. (+2.5 outs/year, which is then converted to wins/year)

They calculate all of the positional adjustments by looking at all players who played multiple positions. They find things like: "When a guy moves from SS to 2B, he saves, on average, 5 more runs ABOVE AVERAGE at 2B over the course of 162 games. So if we give all 2B +2.5 credit, then we have to give all SS a +7.5 credit." And the credits are based on games played at each position.

Some positions have more overlap than others, so some of the relationships are more statistically sound. But it's the best they have.

DH's play a lot of 1B. (And they're going to be worse at defense than the "regular" 1B.) The math says that when they play 1B, they're about 5 runs/season worse than the average 1B... So because 1B's are -12.5 runs/season, they make DH -17.5 runs/season....