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Plus-Arm Question


Plus-Arm Question

Does anyone know what percentages determine plus-arm for Catchers and OFs?

What percentage of CSS does an MLB Catcher have to have to be assigned a plus-arm?

How many assists per game does an OF have to have to qualify for a plus-arm?

Building a player pool, and would like to make it the same as the PC standard for plus-arms.

Re: Plus-Arm Question

These are all good questions, would be curious as well

Re: Re: Plus-Arm Question

Would also be curious to know how a plus arm effects different speed Base Stealers, I would think that a 9 or 10 speed would have more success against a plus arm than a 7 or 8, but it doesn't seem that way

I have had A 10 Speed Dave Collins thrown out stealing 2B ( I RARELY steal 3B by the way, odds are horrendous) and in the same game a 7 and 8 speed successfully steal.

Plus arm outfielders are not strictly based on assists either I think, Runners simply don't try to tag up on them as much as well -

The other day in a box score - Ball hit sharply to Shortstop- Out at 1st on the fielders choice- The CATCHER Robbed a hit on that play - HUH??

Re: Plus-Arm Question

Is it possible that there is going to be any response?

I know some secrecy is nice

Not looking to split the Atom here Bumping to the top

Re: Re: Plus-Arm Question

I think the +arm just bumps base stealers down a level. 10s run like 9s, 9s like 8s, etc.

Base advances on plays to the outfield are much harder to get a read on statistically.

As for where those ratings come from, like many things, Guy wrote a blog post about it: https://www.pennantchase.com/home/b..

Re: Plus-Arm Question

I read the article and as I assumed the Plus Arm has nothing to do with the speed of the Base stealer- so a 7 speed has an equal chance to be thrown out stealing 2nd as a 10 speed does.

So Mike Trout has just the same ability to steal 2nd as Billy Hamilton? I once saw Billy Hamilton go from 1st to third on a ground out... Granted he was trying to steal 2nd and it turned into more like a hit and run but what's in place is a flawed system- consider also that the catcher NEVER throws the Ball away and the Fielder never drops the throw.

Base stealing is so screwed up- you have 3 options and 2 of them are Bad - it's no wonder that guys who stole 12-15 bases regular season are incapable of stealing any in PC, unless they are the back end of a double steal or your a Masochistic Manager who like giving outs away, and stealing 3B is NOTORIOUSLY low percentage

Basing a Runners base stealing ability on the number of triples they hit is kind of like saying a guys ability to win the 40 yard dash is determined by how many marathons he ran- one has nothing to do with the other- You can be a great base runner, and LOUSY at stealing bases, stealing bases requires reading a pitcher and getting a jump.

Basing Arm strength on Catcher assists is another flaw, what if he fields a ton of nubbers in front of the plate? that has nothing to do with throwing out base stealers - and Pitchers are seemingly unaffected by base runners, in real life they have to pitch from the stretch with a fast guy on base.

It's just my opinion and I know it's assuredly a ton of work and probably won't be fixed, but it's an area that sure could use some tinkering

Re: Re: Plus-Arm Question

There is nothing in there about speed not mattering in stealing bases, how did you derive that a 10 has the same chance as a 7? Much like hitter vs pitcher, both runner and arm are considered, although arm is obviously pretty simple.

To the question of why a "speed" rating vs actual stats - well if someone steals 12 bases in 14 attempts, that's a crazy high steal rate, so do you want that rate being used every time the player tries to steal? Of course not.

The arm ratings are fallible, but that's acknowledgeable because it's a stats based sim, so you only have so much to go off.

Re: Plus-Arm Question

I ASSUMED that because the article makes no mention of the would be Base Stealers speed, it only discusses the Catchers plus arm rating - if the Speed rating matters I assumed it would be mentioned - I guess I was incorrect.

The issue really is that it's such an unknown commodity with only a 1 out of 3 chance of being positive that it's really tough to try to use.

Pitchers SHOULD be slightly less effective with base stealers on, Errors on steal attempts should happen once in a while- they happen a LOT in Real life - they aren't rarities like balks

Re: Plus-Arm Question

What was the error rate per position in 2020 on stolen base attempts?

Since those errors are already baked into overall percentage, it would only make sense that success rate of carchers would need to increase on non stolen base plays, to bring the error rate back to the appropriate level.

Of course if you're taking that route, you'd need to start breaking down each position by play scenario, pop flies, grounders, line drives, throws, plays to the left, plays to the right.

Also should probably break down the tendencies of the home team scorekeeper, to best reflect real life scenarios between hits, errors and of course stolen bases.

Re: Re: Plus-Arm Question

That would an interesting stat - totally anecdotal, I feel like I'm as likely to see a balk as I am a true error during a stolen base attempt (removing pick offs from the equation).

Re: Plus-Arm Question

Never Mind, this is a dry well, it is what it is, although in 2019 the successful SB percentage was 68 percent and only 14 guys were picked off all year.

Re: Plus-Arm Question

The original post was borne from importing the entire 2020 class and being surprised that zero catchers imported with a plus-arm.

Also, there were ten OF that had a plus-arm upon import, but none of those OF (Jeff McNeil, Chris Taylor, Dylan Moore, Jurickson Profar, Whit Merrifield, Mauricio Dubon, Nick Solak, Yoshi Tsutsugo, Dee Gordon, Tzu-Wei Lin) were actually among the 2020 MLB leaders in OF assists. Each of the listed players accumulated their assists as part-time IF.

All of this about the OF assists is already known, but the catchers having zero plus-arm was a surprise. I recalled the 40% from somewhere (the blog post), but with zero catchers importing as plus-arm, I thought I was missing something.

Problem was solved for the Ultimate PC Championship (UPCC) database by the following baseball-reference pages:

Catchers, at the "Player Fielding - C":
https://www.baseball-reference.com/..

OFs:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/..

Don't know if the master 2020 database has the OFs from that baseball-reference page as plus-arms, my assumption is that the master PC database has the OF/IF players that import with plus-arms, most of whom didn't have too many OF assists.

Not asking for anything to change, no complaint about plus-arms; just sharing information. No idea how to tie-in the actual data for OF assists to imported players.