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Win Share Questions for Basketball


Win Share Questions for Basketball

Can anybody tell me anything definitive on the significance of total win share? Offensive win share?

I know for Defense it's about how likely they are to apply defensive pressure but is there any other significance beyond that? And what does it mean for offensive win share?

Is the total win share the end all be all ranking of the player or does it represent something else? Should this be our "guide" to quantify players value in a single easy to interpret stat? (Sort of like "Rank" in the baseball sim)

Any insight that can be offered would be greatly appreciated. Ive been experimenting with my drafts and leagues to test out different theories but it's a slow moving process.

Thanks!

Re: Win Share Questions for Basketball

OWS is a boost to field goal percentage. It's probably fair to compare TWS to Rank but I wouldn't consider either an end all ranking. Just like in baseball where a hitter might have 95 rank with no power, terrible DWar and Fielding% and no speed, a basketball player can have a high TWS but poor field goal % and lots of turnovers.

Here's a league where my team is currently in 1st overall and they have a combined total win share that ranks 9th out of the 10 teams - illustrating that it's not an end all stat.

https://www.pennantchase.com/hoopsp..

Re: Re: Win Share Questions for Basketb

5/22 gbacci Hoops Forum 1 0
That Low Riders team in the link above is doing a lot well, top 5 in rebounding, steals, blocks and defensive stops. Plus a healthy FG%... so no surprise it's a playoff team.

Re: Win Share Questions for Basketb

I just don't get this....he has not 1 bona fide star and is dominating his league

Re: Re: Win Share Questions for Basketb

Starting to think FG% is the most essential stat. I recently upped DeAndre Jordan’s shot share in one of my leagues and my teams performance turned around rather quickly. He shoots over 70% from the field so he and others like this should be taking as many shots as possible. In this same league Curry is bombing 3’s at a 50% clip, shooting 10 a game. Curry is this simulation might be the best player in the game because his effective shooting % is ridiculously high and he can shoot such a high volume of shots. All these leagues are so new though that it’s tough to make any real assumptions based on such a small sample size.

https://www.pennantchase.com/hoopsp..

Re: Re: Win Share Questions for Basketb

5/22 gbacci Hoops Forum 0 0
Jordan's team has 9 wins and all his teams seem to do well in most '80s leagues I've seen. Stockton is easily a first rounder - can score and has great D numbers. After the first round, the drop off is real in the '80s pool. He has two elite rebounders, a monster center (who btw is a great late steal in that pool) and Fat Lever may not have had a Hall of Fame career but had a crazy good season. And it's not like they've won the whole thing yet, it's still early.

Re: Win Share Questions for Basketball

Jason Grasso wrote:
"Should this be our 'guide' to quantify players value in a single easy to interpret stat? (Sort of like Rank in the baseball sim) "

I object, your honor. Why should there be a single metric whereby you can easily quantify players in the first place? (full disclosure: I hate rank in baseball) The research, interpretation and evaluation is key to the competitive nature of the game; indeed this is where the fun lies. Stop looking for one number as the end-all-be-all and look at the complete player, it's like relying on Cliff's Notes instead of reading the book.

Re: Re: Win Share Questions for Basketb

Well, I'm a prototypical PC addict. Been a "50-leaguer" for awhile, and so I find myself in 10 Hoops leagues. All 4 genres..and to agree with a few points, @Nap, yes, one quibtifiable number isn't going to get you the Holy Grail of player SIM results. I like it more that Ive gotten to pay more attention than with the Beta. But I looked at the overall Beta impacts. And made adjustments on drafting strategy off of that. @Guy, yup, Lever is a SG for me in an 80's and an ATG League. Which leads to the point that fpr owners, you must look at what era youre playing in and players available. In my view, SG has the biggest drop off in overall talent the fastest in any League, especially 80's and 90's leagues after Jordan, Bryant..but you also wanna look for players with reasonable combintions of OWS, DWS, FG%, REB/36, BLK/36, STL/36, TOV/36...
I'm finding I have a couple leagues where I landed the "Jordan or Shaq or Stef" type player..and theyre fairing well (those teams), but its solid contributions from "niche" guys like Rodman, Giannis, ADRIAN f'n DANTLEY baby that are all the difference.
Guys like Duncan, Barkley, Malone, those all-around contributors are getting it done. Theyre just as valuable here as they were in real life..
Ive seen Magic have mixed results, Stockton too..

So I will ask one thing that I don't think has been answered or Ive merely missed your answers to it in a chat somewhere, is Guy, how do AST's, moreover, AST/36 play into the SIM ? boost to receiving player's FG%?

Also, does it change the propensity of a player with a high AST rate, or even a super low AST rate to pass/not pass in order to help quantify THAT stat, or are they less ingrained (set or default FGA distributions still generally dictate shot selections)?

Re: Re: Win Share Questions for Basketb

The biggest issue that I find with the sim, and I believe nap somewhat was in agreement with me in terms of this as well, is that when a team has a very low offensive rated player in their lineup, that should be applied into how that team plays, and in relation to that. When playing basketball, whether it's street ball or a "organized" game, teams will often allow a weak offensive player a lot more room, meaning that if the poor offensive guy is open, then there's is a defender somewhere double-teaming a player, therefore the percentage of turnovers should be increased, and I'm not seeing where that is being applied, or if it even is. Because to me, that is a very basic part of the game that teams would use......attack a weak defender, and leave open a poor shooter.....common sense game strategies that I am not seeing applied

Re: Win Share Questions for Basketball

5/23 gbacci Hoops Forum 1 0
You’re not seeing it applied because the game was built in a matter of days/weeks. I think those are all fair points and I think win share is a good number that could be leveraged down the road for a more advanced game. Things like “double team higher win shares”. But keep in mind, double teams create open shots and even lesser players can knock down open shots.

Also consider, double teams are already baked into the stats.

I think fouls and free throws would also dramatically help. You have to suspend a little disbelief in this format. I mean teams could foul the best player over and over with no consequence. But we’re playing a street game where people won’t do that.

Re: Re: Win Share Questions for Basketb

I've started avoid ing is players who have high OWS because they shoot a lot of foul shots. They're not going to get them in this game.

Re: Win Share Questions for Basketball

@NAPLAJOIE
Just to clarify, I was interested in knowing if I should be treating WS as another stat to factor in with all of the other research or if, such as with rank in baseball, it's used more as a guide for how the player will perform on average.

I also have to say my friend and I are really enjoying the basketball sim. It's got its flaws but I think that's to be expected. It also helps that I've got 3 playoff teams out of my 3 leagues so far but anything can happen.

Sometimes people lose sight of why we do this in the first place. I've been having a lot of fun with the basketball sim so I'm a winner either way lol.