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dW, WHIP, K/9


dW, WHIP, K/9

This might not be that interesting to some of you, but I thought it was pretty interesting... one league I'm in is 33 games into the season... we've each played each team 3 teams.

Here's how the top 6 teams (by record) rank in runs allowed... and then their average dW of 8 fielders, followed by WHIP and K/9 of their starting 5 (real, not compiled):

107 runs allowed, 1.4 dW, 1.13 WHIP, 6.9 H/9, 11.9 K/9 (20-13 record)
116 runs allowed, 0.9 dW, 1.07 WHIP, 7.3 H/9, 11.3 K/9 (22-11)
131 runs allowed, 0.4 dW, 1.06 WHIP, 7.1 H/9, 10.5 K/9 (20-13)
132 runs allowed, -0.1 dW, 1.09 WHIP, 7.5 H/9, 8.5 K/9 (21-12)
152 runs allowed, 1.6 dW, 1.05 WHIP, 7.8 H/9, 7.7 K/9 (18-15) ***
168 runs allowed, 0.6 dW, 1.15 WHIP, 6.9 H/9, 10.7 K/9 (21-12)

The *** team is my team. Highest average dW, lowest WHIP... but worst K/9... and I'm 5th in runs allowed and 6th in league-wide standings. So dW and WHIP alone won't get you there...

(Not surprisingly, I weighted my hitters heavy in dW for this draft experiment, and then drafted pitchers by WHIP...)

Edit: Per suggestion below, I added H/9 to the list of stats.

Re: dW, WHIP, K/9

11/19 DocB Random Chatter 0 0
Skip WHIP and use H/9.

Re: Re: dW, WHIP, K/9

Thank you. I added H/9 to the list.

Pretty interesting... The first and last teams on the list are interesting to compare. Very similar WHIP and H/9 and K/9, but big difference in runs allowed. Only big difference in stats is dW. But there's clearly more than dW with all of the other teams in between them.....

So then I noticed that Park Factors are coming into play here... the last team with 168 runs allowed has Big Boost x2 for the park. The first team with 107 runs allowed has Mild Boost and Big Disadvantage. dWAR won't help you with homeruns. :)

My overall takeaway is that dWAR isn't as strong as I thought. It definitely helps to some degree (and these are the top 6 teams out of 12) but you need the K/9 apparently to really help. (Which is odd... I would have figured a high dW would bring down the hits allowed and therefore... bring down the runs allowed...and it does, I'm sure... just not to the degree I expected.)

Re: dW, WHIP, K/9

Doc, that was true way back when but now WHIP plays a much bigger role because walks actually happen. Before, a 1.50 WHIP (Or even higher) low H9 high K9 pitcher was an ace because there were so few walks. Not true anymore.

Re: Re: dW, WHIP, K/9

1972 Nolan Ryan is perhaps the finest example.

Re: dW, WHIP, K/9

11/23 DocB Random Chatter 0 0
Agreed, YBB. I am more interested in the effect of low h/9 and high dWAR and their intersection. Consider how does the sim react when say over 50% or the hits are more are taken away from an already small pool of hits allowed from having a very low h/9. I agree with the WHIP being more important now but that was not what I was getting at.

Re: Re: dW, WHIP, K/9

I can relate to that Doc...all the defense makes the pitcher come full circle if you will, again, say a '72 Ryan coupled with a '17 Simmons/'00 Erstad SS/CF stack, You can't do much about BB9, but you can directly impact your pitcher's H9, thus lowering his baserunners per inning overall (WHIP).