Existing User? Login here!


Back to Boards

Triples -- More about home ballpark


Triples -- More about home ballpark

Triples -- Are more about home ballpark than speed. The formulas on this website could use a little sprucing up.

Granderson could not have hit 23 triples in most ballparks.

Check out the article here and the section on the most 3B (triples).

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/..
If you truly want to make this more realistic, ballpark selections in favorite teams (for each park) should come into play.

Perhaps 3B increase if your ballpark is bad for homers ?

Re: Triples -- More about home ballpark

Triples are not based on speed.

Re: Re: Triples -- More about home ball

"If you truly want to make this more realistic, ballpark selections in favorite teams (for each park) should come into play. "

That's exactly what happens here. Boost stadiums increase HR, Disadvantage stadiums increase extra base hits. Good call.

Re: Re: Triples -- More about home ball

But speed is based on triples correct? Historically, many people hit triples that aren't all that fast. They just have especially spacious home ballparks. Ketel Marte last year hit 12 triples in Arizona to lead the league and had 6 steals. No one would accuse him of being a burner/terror on the basepaths.

Re: Triples -- More about home ballpark

It’s a good point, but all that gets him here is a 6 speed. And just because players don’t try to steal bases, doesn’t mean they aren’t fast. Here is Marte’s 2014 scouting report where he was rated 65 speed (far above average)

‘Marte's best tool is his speed, and he has more than enough to be a threat on the basepaths and to give him range up the middle.’

So yeah, no formula will be perfect.

Re: Re: Triples -- More about home ball

Brings me to another main point, SB could be the primary driver of SP and weighted much higher than triples.

Some ballparks are almost impossible to hit triples in, no matter how fast you are. That shouldn't bring down a guy's sp from 9 to 8 because he didn't hit triples when playing in that ballpark.

Re: Triples -- More about home ball

The ballpark does play in many ways. I have a Phillies team in Faves that's gotten 52 triples in 57 games plus 112 doubles. . I set the park on Mild disadvantage just for that reason. As far as steals go, they can be run by the strategy settings. So everything you're looking for is already in the game in your team settings.

Re: Triples -- More about home ballpark

I hear the comment, I just don’t know that I see triples as unfairly impacting players speed ratings. Steals already are a higher factor. There’s no perfect formula to be sure but I’d have to see examples of all these out of whack ratings.

Re: Re: Triples -- More about home ball

Here is a formula suggestion that I think would more accurately assess the SP rating.

Taking triples out of the equation (can stay in, but here is a simple formula).

Plate appearances * (OBP) = times on base.

Times on base / (divided by) steals = times on base for every 1 steal.

Anything below a 5.00 gets a 9. Anything below a 6.25 gets an 8.

5.00 would indicate 1 steal for every 5.25 times on base.

Plate appearances are easy enough to import, and could factor in for other offensive categories.

At bats count against players who do not take a walk and hence drives down their SB/AB. Thus the above formula would remove that heavy bias.

With this formula you can take Juan Samuel 1984:
737 plate appearances * .307 OBP = 226 times on base.

226 / 72 stolen bases = 1 stolen base per 3.14 times on base.

Compare this with Ricky Henderson 1980

722 plate appearances * .420 OBP = 303 times on base.

303 / 100 stolen bases = 1 stolen base per 3.03 times on base.

Almost exactly the same! When you factor in Samuel has 19 triples to 7 for Henderson AND Samuel had 34 triples or homers compared to 13 for Henderson. The triples or homers count towards times on base but are NOT stolen base opportunities.

Additionally, you can go one step further with the following formula:

Plate appearances * (OBP) = times on base.

Times on base - (minus) home runs - (minus) triples = Stolen base opportunities

Stolen base opportunities / (divided by) steals = stolen base opportunities for every 1 stolen base.

Here if you apply this formula to Juan Samuel and Rickey Henderson, you get 2.67 for Samuel and 2.90 for Henderson, rating Samuel as more likely to steal a base with an opportunity than Henderson.

Re: Triples -- More about home ballpark

That formula is probably overly simplistic. It doesnt consider CS, or other speed driven categories like GIDP.

Also, there is an improper parallel we are trying to apply to the sims. When simming, top speed guys steal bases and non speed guys dont. That's not reality in MLB. Stealing bases is also a skill.

Last year, Dansby Swanson ranked 23rd in all of MLB in sprint speed. But he only stole 10 bases on 14 attempts. He grounded into 5 DPs.

When Paul Goldschmidt decided to steal 31 bases in 2016, he didn't get faster, but just tried to steal in good situations more frequently.

Re: Re: Triples -- More about home ball

Calling that formula simplistic is calling all PC formulas simplistic (as they are equal or less so in their simplicity. SB% from my understanding does not factor into speed whatsoever. I am merely lending my statistician knowledge to the table to improve the sim for the current year stats of the players so they effectively mimic each season the best they can. SP is mainly to indicate whether a player can steal or not in a given season, and how fast and smart they run the bases in PC (IE can they leg out a DP or make it home before the throw).

I would like to request that formulas for each rating be posted publicly thus suggestions can be made for improvement.

Re: Triples -- More about home ballpark

What is the problem trying to be solved? Speed doesn’t just impact stolen bases.. while it doesn’t impact triples, it plays into other base running. So who are the players we are concerned about in regards to their speed rating (again with the understanding that there won’t ever be a formula everyone agrees with)?

Re: Re: Triples -- More about home ball

Looking for a better solution than SB/AB to indicate SP rating. See above. SB/AB is an awkward stat that does not take into account walks and HBP. SB/TOB (times on base) is a better solution. SB/SBOp (stolen base opp) is even better.

3B/AB could be incorporated in the formula (and I'm sure already is to a certain extent).

Currently, it is only SB/AB and 3B/AB with some degree of weight. Correct me if I am wrong. Is it as simple as AB / (divided by) 3B + SB ??

While it is understood that SP affects not only stolen bases, it is the primary rating that allows a batter to steal, bunt for a hit, and hit for better avg.

My example above shows that Juan Samuel 1984 should also be a 10sp rating vs. Rickey Henderson 1980 - because Samuel had way more 3B and a much higher SB/SBOp than Henderson.

Re: Triples -- More about home ball

Even in that season though, 1980 Ricky Henderson tried to steal 5% more often than 1984 Juan Samuel. And that’s with Henderson getting on base more often - we can assume if Samuel had reached base more often his attempt rate would be even lower. So while Henderson was about 4% less successful, he’s clearly the faster player (or at least better base stealer) because he was taking so much more risk.

Samuel would probably be a 10 if triples were weighted higher or if he didn’t hit those triples in 700+ at bats.

Re: Re: Triples -- More about home ball

226 / 72 stolen bases = 1 stolen base per 3.14 times on base.

vs.

303 / 100 stolen bases = 1 stolen base per 3.03 times on base.

I don't see how definitively you can say that Henderson was a better base stealer. He just had more chances. AND Samuel has way more triples. Taking the chance with more chances does not imply that Samuel would not have taken the chance if he had the chance... That's like saying someone with 30 SB in 150 at bats would not have stolen any more bases with 600 abs.

226 / 72 stolen bases = 1 stolen base per 3.14 times on base.

vs.

303 / 100 stolen bases = 1 stolen base per 3.03 times on base.

Over the same amount of chances as Henderson, Samuel would have 97 steals!!!

Furthermore, as previously denoted a time on base includes a triple or a homer. Henderson had very few of those in 1980 while Samuel had 34.

Guy, if your BB (walk) formula holds up, Henderson should get more SB opportunities in a sim if their speed ratings are the same (which they should be).

I think most can admit that when they got on base in 1980 and 1984, they both had a very similar chance of stealing a base. And if you remove triples and homers, Samuel had a better chance (2.67 vs. 2.90 chances per SB) of stealing a base given the opportunity.

'Better base stealer' is very subjective and does not have any stats to back that up (other than the numbers INFLATED by chances).
______________________________________________________________________
If you are truly looking for seasonal value of hitters on the basepaths (per Fangraphs):

Base Running (BsR) is FanGraphs’ all encompassing base running statistic that turns stolen bases, caught stealings, and other base running plays (taking extra bases, being thrown out on the bases, etc) into runs above and below average. It is the combination of Weighted Stolen Base Runs (wSB), Weighted Grounded Into Double Play Runs (wGDP), and Ultimate Base Running (UBR) which are all available on the leaderboards and player pages.

BsR serves as the base running component of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and provides a lot more information than simply looking at a player’s stolen base total if you are interested in judging a player’s base running performance.

The problem with this rating is that it is given based on the player's contribution that season over X number of plate appearances. So, one would need to have an 8+ rating for a full season of 700 PA - (For a 10 SP rating in PC) for instance -- or a 2+ for a 10 rating with less than 200 PA, etc.
______________________________________________________________________
I have a PhD in stats and do this for a living. I'm just giving free advice to help with the SP rating, which is probably one of the least infallible ratings if based only on AB/SB and 3B/AB. Any stats guru on baseball reference would likely say this is a good idea.