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MVP formula...


MVP formula...

Why does the MVP formula not consider hits saved? I'm not a baseball stat nerd so I don't know what the real formula is, but it has been the same since I started 5 years ago. With the addition of dWAR, shouldn't it consider hits saved?

Re: MVP formula...

dWAR was introduced more as a way to identify your stronger fielders and an extra dimension outside of just surface level fielding percentages - not much more than that.

The MVP criteria here and irl are based on their offensive prowess, not defense

Re: MVP formula...

There's no MVP formula IRL, and if there was one that only included offensive prowess, it would be wrong.

The site uses a predictive formula that been around for decades. If there's a more modern formula that captures defense and fits within the compilated data we have available through the sim, it just needs to be proposed.

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That’s what I was thinking BH. It is a big part of a players value now. All Guy has to do is add a weighted “hits saved” in the existing formula.

Re: MVP formula...

But Guy is just using a known formula that someone else created to estimate MVP voting. He hasnt added or subtracted to it and I doubt plans to create his own.

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You don’t have to create your own. Add a weighted hits saved to the formula. Done.

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I think the point is willy nilly adding to the formula produces unknown results. The formula was not built with defense in mind probably because when the formula was created voters rarely if ever considered defense. It would be interesting to see some PC examples where someone lost an MVP that people feel he should have won because defense wasn't a factor... that could allow for the right amount of tweaking. Or, as yankee said, there might be a newer formula that people use today... although I suspect something like WAR is a factor and that obviously gets complex to figure.

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It’s ok. I was just think out loud anyways. I have a league where OF Luis is 3rd in MVP (Powerhouse). On par with the two above him, but he has 40 hits saved. The others have hardly any.

Not sure how adding a +(d*.2) or whatever the “weight” is would cause unpredictable results. The reality is dWAR is used heavily on good teams now. The formula gives points for HBP, so I figured why not leverage stats we have and use.

Not a big deal though.

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Can you send the league? Could help give a sense for what the weight would make sense.

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Also, like I said earlier, it’s really not a big deal. I wasn’t even thinking about me really. Hits saved just plays a huge part in a lot of really good custom league teams.

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In that same league, Tatis is right behind Luis. He is a DH.

Look in the AL too. Case to be made that Bellinger is more MVP than his teammate above him on the list.

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One more league and I’ll shut up:

https://www.pennantchase.com/lgHome..
Andruw Jones has 80 something hits saved. He isn’t even on the MVP board. His stats are decent too. Argument can be made he should at least be on the MVP board.

Re: MVP formula...

Adding defense makes sense, but that also boosts the chances of players in CF SS 2B becoming MVP. Maybe that is legit but other positions just don’t get as many opportunities.

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That’s why I said to weigh it. Weight it lightly if you must. It can be used as a separator between equal talents. And it will keep DH’s from flying up the charts. Hell, HBP is weighted as 1/3 per point. Maybe make runs saved a .1 or .2 of a point.

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Another issue is RPs. There are guys with 5 plus ERA on Cy or All Star leaderboards because they have lots of saves or wins (probably from blown saves).

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I agree 100 percent Yankee. Look at McLaughlin in Powerhouse. Over 4 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP and he is 2nd on the board for Cy. Your RP is 8th on the list and hands down better than McLaughlin.

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It definitely isn't a very modern formula with lots of value for wins and saves. The combination of SB/CS seems not quite right either - you can have a horrible steal percentage and still rack up MVP points. And it's strange that RBIs count but runs dont.
Also where is launch angle and exit velocity?

Just kidding on the last one.

Re: Re: MVP formula...

For sure it's a formula from the past and modern voters have probably moved away from the focus they used to have.... but I'll say. this is one of those things where you'll never make everyone happy, which is why I've spent very little time touching it over the years. But at some point it's def worth another look.

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This is why you play custom leagues, and then league members can vote on it!

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I don't remember anybody winning an MVP for his glove...

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I like to use the following when evaluating my team’s performances after a league finishes:

Offensive runs created (RC): (H+BB-CS) X (TB + 0.55*SB)/PA

Defensive runs saved: (D+CCS-errors)/2.4

Add the two together to get total run value

I find this is a pretty quick and accurate way to rank my hitter’s contributions.

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I just meant it should be factored in. How many DHs do you see win MVP?

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And we aren’t talking about the MLB. We are talking about PCs MVP. And since the introduction of dWAR in here, it really has changed a lot of teams. You almost have to have several good dWAR guys in your lineup to win now. Like Yankee said, if you don’t have a high dWAR CF, SS and 2B, you are at a disadvantage.

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Just FYI-

Using my formula on the Andruw Jones league Josh lists:

A. Jones 152
Galarraga 154

So, current mVP leader Big Cat still leads, but Josh is right that Jones would be right behind him in the race

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DWAR simply replaced what use to be Range Factor in PC... Range Factor had a huge impact we just couldn't calibrate....

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The MVP and Cy Young Formulas were not Gbacci's invention -simply a formula someone else made up, but including DWar could be good or bad, the MVP is an Offense based award and in fairness although DWar certainly does increase a players overall value, it doesn't help Offense one bit

Perhaps the MVP could become like the Batting Award and create a new award encompassing Defense? I have no idea why HBP would contribute to Offensive prowess and Runs scored carry no weight either

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HBP is there because OBP isnt used directly. Not making an out is basically the best thing a batter can do. You can score a run though without contributing much, which may be why they are historically undervalued, especially in voting. We know old school baseball likes the guy who got the last hit more than the guy that got the first hit.