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inaccurate


inaccurate

its a fun game but when you have .350 hitters consistentley struggling to hit .230 ....something is wrong i dont care how good the pitchers are .....and speaking of pitchers their era are completely inflated......greg maddux the year he goes 19-2 ....is 8-14 with an era over 4........this is just not an accurate simulation......i think im gonna have to uninstall

Re: inaccurate

Bye Felicia

Re: inaccurate

well here's the thing - it's all just math. it is pretty frustrating when a good player is underperforming, but that's what makes pc even more fun and realistic - and yes, in your eyes, it might not be realistic to have Greg Maddux with an ERA over 4, but sometimes, players just can't find their stride.

For example, look at Maddux in 05' and 06'. He had an ERA over 4 those years, but then when he got to the Dodgers, he found a bit more stride.

What I'm trying to say is, that's just part of the game, real life and apparently in pc too.

Re: Re: inaccurate

Maddux is a PC heartbreaker. Ichiro, too.

I've never run a season with only 1995 players (the year Maddux went 19-2). Sim 1995 1,000x, and see how often Maddux goes 19-2. That would be interesting.

But, to attempt to truly test the sim's accuracy, I would have to painstakingly research how managers managed each of ATl's opponents.

I couldn't just put all the 1995 teams in their most-used batting orders, and most used rotations, I'd also have to go through every team Maddux faced and try to most accurately mimic how often those teams tried to steal bases, how often those teams called for sac bunts, how often those teams "surprise" bunted, how often they pinch hit and for which players, how those teams managed their bullpens.

After feeling comfortable that all the factors are as close to identical as what 1995 Greg Maddux faced, I'd then have to run the season 1000x because, for sure, Maddux going 19-2 is a statistical anomaly. In a game of inches, going 19-2 is a magnificent feat, but it wasn't solely because Maddux was so great, he had to have some good fortune, too.

I have quibbles with the sim, too, but PC is a game, not a guaranteed re-creation of real life. I have quibbles with Monopoly, Pac Man, Madden, all games I've ever played.

It's too bad when the PC universe loses a player. But, there really is only one person this game can't lose, and I think he continues to do a superhuman job of making PC a place where a lot of us can have fun and have a hobby that isn't (too?) damaging to real life relationships and peace of mind.

Re: inaccurate

This has been the number one issue I’ve heard from people this year as non-sim folks have joined the site. Here’s the thing - every sim ever made has produced similar results when you have stars against stars. That player who hit .350 did it against competition that was far easier. Maddux does not sim poorly in this game relative to the competition he’s facing. He actually sims pretty well. But this is a really common issue people can’t seem to get and I’m not sure how to communicate it better.

It’s a zero sum game. When you have great pitchers going against great hitters someone has to lose. That’s why neither produce stats close to what they did in real life.

If you ran a league and recreated 1995, I promise you Maddux would dominate 99 out of 100 seasons.

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As a Giants fan, just look at their last three World Series wins. Huge park, great pitching, great defense. Three rings.

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Sol, your comment above is spot on, but you forgot one major detail in that last paragraph...

Yes, Guy is definitely the one guy the site can't afford to lose, for a large number of reasons. But arguably the most important reason by far is because he's the guy (no pun intended) who pays the bill to keep the site running... Without him, there wouldn't BE a Pennant Chase!

Sorry, couldn't help myself 😉😂

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Yeah. He's the guy. That's definitely the guy.
lol

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Roll of the dice son, roll of the dice...

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It looks like Greg Maddux has quite a loaded trophy case, many cy youngs in many league type...

He must be quite good, to challenge Bob Gibson, Nolan Ryan, Sandy Koufax, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, best seasons in all these leagues, and still getting quite a huge share of Cy Young awards...

https://www.pennantchase.com/home/p..

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for a guy that won 4 Cy Young awards in A ROW, he gets absolutely screwed on PC, he should have WAY more Cy Young's

he gave up more hits but also had a ridiculously DP percentage, which screws him because PC overvalues strikeouts.

In his prime there is NO pitcher I would rather trot out there, an out, is an out.

Re: inaccurate

How could a sim emulate a pitcher not allowing solid contact? It has to use the stats, so high hits and low Ks will naturally not go well, whereas in reality Maddux or whoever maybe could have forced poor contact.

But as the previous post said, he is still doing pretty well.

Re: Re: inaccurate

There are two main ways the OP's logic and reasoning is bogus, as he claims the sim is too inaccurate for him:

1. There are very few leagues with players all from the same season. Any legitimate test of the sim's accuracy would need to be conducted on a single season's player pool, going through the steps (and others like it) in my previous post.

2. More importantly, if every player performed identical to his exact numbers, or even really close to those numbers, the game would be ruined as it would no longer involve anything other than math. Games would never have to be simmed, the computer could simply say, "This team's math says they will win." It would be Build Teams, Get Result. No sims needed.


Personally, I never take Maddux without scouring for any pitcher who may outperform him. He's not a great PC pitcher, by and large, and anyone who wants to claim he is can have him. But, wanting certain players to be great in PC because they were great in MLB is missing the point of the whole game.

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I agree with what you are saying Yankeebb, The SIM doesn't HAVE any way to differentiate between hard hit outs and Outs- that's not the problem, it's about Greg Maddux winning more Cy Young awards

Bottom line is even without striking out as many guys as the top K/9 Guys, he was extremely efficient at making it hard to get good contact, he induced a TON of Double Play balls so the extra hits he did allow didn't hurt him so much either.

The SIM or equation used to rank Cy Young winners can't see that, so he loses out to guys with more strikeouts because that's what the formula calls for.

The actual real life voters KNEW who the best pitcher was and voted accordingly, it's NOT a slam on the SIM, just the way the Formula for Cy Young awards values Pitchers

He could win 2-3 MORE games than another Pitcher but the other guy whiffed 50 more and he loses out to him.

Sol is also correct in that Maddux is not Great in PC BECAUSE of the lack of K's and more H/9 - I am fine with it, it's just too bad that a guy that was truly dominant in Real life is only Good in PC, BUT as long as you understand that and basically forget about names and go with stats, you can do fine.

CY Formula - James/Neyer Cy Young Predictor formula (modified slightly) from The Guide to Pitchers

((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) - Blown Saves + Shutouts + CG + ((W*5)-(L*2))


so 60 Strikeouts is worth the same as 5 Wins in Cy Young Formula

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If I am facing a lineup full of Jose Vizacaino, Jose Lind, Steve Buechele, Greg Maddux will be has efficient as Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, or Nolan Ryan...

But if I am facing a lineup full of Bagwell, Walker, Frank Thomas, Mike Piazza, Jim Thome... I rather give Pedro or Randy Johnson the ball... since one of Greg Maddux's crafty changeup may end up to be a flyball over the outfield fence... So yes at one point you want to limit the contacts allowed to bolted lineups Bagwell, Thome, Piazza, Walker, McGwire...

A flyball from Jose Vizcaino vs a flyball from Frank Thomas may often end in a different fashion...

So yes, strikeouts are important at one point when facing strong hitters...

And most probably that if Maddux is facing bunches of Frank Thomas and Larry Walker.. he may end up just allowing as many walks or close to as Randy Johnson or Pedro Martinez...

strikeout does have an impact and rightfully so...

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Because wins don't matter, yeah, I'd take 60 strikeouts over 5 wins 100% of the time.

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Strikeouts will generate more wins vs a big offense...

I would give the ball to an electric strikeout pitcher like Randy Johnson or Pedro Martinez way before Greg Maddux if I have to face a bolted offensive lineup like we do here in every leagues we play.... Lineup are mainly composed of guys like McGwire, Bonds, Thomas, Walker...

I simply wan't to limit contacts from these guys... so it should end up in generating more wins also...

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How can Wins not matter? Wait, now I see what you mean- Wins don't Matter in PC when determining Pitcher statistics -

That is true, but I can tell you that 5 Wins in Real life would be valued WELL over 60 K's

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SCM that's not true anyone. Modern sabermetrics cares much more about the performance stats than the flukiness of whether a pitcher got credited for a win or not. PC (and most other sims) were just well ahead of the game. :)

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i didn't mean that GM's care what pitcher gets the win though, just that the team wins

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I love the user who started this string complained that ERA's are too high and averages are too low. It's like saying it's too bright and it's too dark.

And Maddux is tricky. There are all sorts of batted ball profiles (GB/FB, FB%, etc.) for pitchers that could help but I don't think that data goes back very far (maybe 2002).