The Value Draft
Students draft rosters from a pool of historical hitters and pitchers, then test their own drafting theory against a full simulated season.
- Best fit
- Grades 6–12
- Runs for
- 3–8 weeks
- Class time
- 1 period to launch, then 15–20 min/week
- Math
- Rates, weighted averages, scatterplots, correlation
- Handout
- Student packet
What students do
Before the draft, each student writes down a one-sentence drafting philosophy and ranks the three stats they plan to prioritize. That written prediction is the whole experiment — at the end of the season they'll grade it themselves.
Then they draft, the season simulates, and every week or two they record their team's runs scored, runs allowed, and record along with a few team rate stats. By midseason the class has a full data table with a row for every team in the league.
Questions that drive the unit
- Rank the league's teams by batting average, then by on-base percentage, then by slugging. Which ranking looks most like the actual standings?
- A player who reaches base 38% of the time and one who hits .310 with a .330 OBP — which one did more for your team, and how would you prove it?
- Why did the .320 hitter you drafted only bat .270 for you? Is that the engine, bad luck, or both?
- Two shortstops are on the board and one first baseman. Does position change what a player is worth to you? Should it?
- Counting stats (home runs, RBI) versus rate stats (OBP, ERA) — which one told you more when you were drafting, and why?
Reading the sim engine
The interesting part isn't the box score, it's the machinery. Ask students to write down what they think has to happen, in order, for the engine to produce one plate appearance. Most classes get to something like: turn each player's stats into a probability, combine the batter's number with the pitcher's, draw a random value, and see where it lands.
That guess is close enough to be useful, and testing it is the fun part. If a hitter's real-life on-base percentage is .350 and the pitcher he's facing allowed .300, is the result in your league closer to .350, .300, or something in between? The sim engine primer walks a class through the arithmetic.